How would you prefer the Dow to dump?

[Stinky The Clown]

Most financial people seem to think the Dow's floor is between 7500 and 8500. Now, that may well be optimistic and those who predicted it may be whistling past the graveyard. But it seems true that we're not at the bottom yet.

So what would you prefer?

A slow, agonizing route that drops 4, goes up 3, drops 3, goes up 2, drop 10 goes up 8 .....

Or one big fat dump and get it over with?

[Javaman]

1. I could care less as long as it begins to go back up after Obama is elected.

that would be a giant thumb in the eye of the repukes.

[Bonn1997]

2. I think you've got too much time on your hands! :-)

I wouldn't mind one big dump on Nov 3rd, though! We'll get that money back and more if Barack is elected IMO.

[Bonn1997]

3. OK, I'll play along. If you were a dog, how would you prefer to be neutered...

One ball one day and the other another day, or both at once?

[Parche]

4. With The Seat Down At Least

[Stinky The Clown]

9. I knew someone would go scatalogical .......

.... and how do I know this?

Cuz if this thread were started by someone else, that's what **I** would do! :rofl:

Actually, I asked the question with good intent, but humor has difficulty taking leave of my childish brain.

[lapfog_1]

5. One big drop encourages overshoot

as true panic selling starts...

the market has probably already overshot the low (9000 floor), but with panic selling it could have been much worse.

[Coyote_Bandit]

6. There

will be less panic if the crash - and the fear the accompanies it - is incremental. That means there will be less bloodletting - and more stability. There will be a bit of time to mentally and emotionally adapt to the new realities.

Personally I think the floor is somewhere closer to 6500 to 6800. That should put the market somewhere about 20% below its long term historical P/E ratio.

I used to work as an investment portfolio manager in the international private bank of one of the large multi-nationals. The value managers have only recently begun to be interested in the broad market. As far as some of these managers are concerned the market is just now beginning to be slightly underpriced. Before this is over, even they are going to be wondering just how low it will go.

When this is over I think Americans as a whole will have a new respct for the markets. I think well diversified mutual funds will be back in vogue. As will buy and hold strategies and value strategies.

[TahitiNut]

7. Four down, one up, three down, one up ... all the way to 6,000

:shrug:

[Warpy]

8. One big dump causes a long term panic

and takes a lot longer to recover than one step forward, two steps back. That's because the positive days maintain hope.

I would always prefer to avoid a panic situation because panic makes people do dumb things.

My own prediction of the floor nearly a year ago was 7000. It might crash through the floor for a time, but I strongly feel it will recover to that, plus or minus the usual 300. Since it's a guesstimate I pulled out of my butt as much as ran numbers for, take it for what it's worth.