538: "Real Credibility Problems" (Real Clear Politics Cherry Picking Polls)

[mod mom]

Thursday, October 2, 2008
Real Credibility Problems

Last week, I discussed Real Clear Politics' decision to exclude the Research 2000 daily tracking poll from their national averages. After a lengthy discussion with RCP founder John McIntyre, I decided to defended them, pointing out that while RCP may have a debatable framework for deciding which polls they do or do not include, they at least appeared to have applied this framework consistently.

My gut-level takeaway from my conversation with McIntyre was somewhat different from what I represented, however. My gut-level feeling was that RCP was in fact cherry-picking those results that were to its liking, and then coming up with post-facto rationalizations to justify its decisions.

RCP made a decision yesterday that convinces me I should have trusted my gut. Specifically, it was their decision to re-include polls from American Research Group (ARG) in their state-by-state averages.

-snip

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html

[Democat]

1. RCP = McCain supporters?

There are plenty of "news" sites out there trying to help McCain. In the end, it only undermines the entire credibility of the site when they do that type of thing.

[trotsky]

2. I thought it was a well-known "secret" that RCP is right-wing.

That's how they got started. Nothing but right-wing links & stuff on their page in the beginning.