|
Edited on Thu Aug-28-08 01:12 AM by The Traveler
The best way to avoid war with the Russians is to be firm but subtle. Which is another way of saying draw a relatively hard line ... but one with some wiggle room for both sides. And I think the Obama/Biden approach does that and thereby provides a starting point for dialog regarding the matter. Given the amount of military hardware in that area now, dialog is a really good thing.
The Russians have ambitions ... don't doubt it. But those ambitions are fueled and given extra urgency by suspicions regarding America's true intentions. Given the actions of the Bush administration, the manner in which they conduct policy, etc., I regard suspicions of that sort as being only rational. And I assure you Russian intelligence analysts have digested every word every posted to the old PNAC web site ... which can only heighten their anxieties.
Presume Obama wins the election. If Obama appears weak to them, they will presume his movement in America will fail, in which case it is only reasonable to gain ground before another Empire builder like Bush takes over in America. But if Obama appears determined, prepared, and able to negotiate coolly, this situation can be defused and a prolonged "cold war" avoided. I am certain Obama realizes this, and is determined not to appear weak on this matter for that reason, as well as for reasons of domestic politics.
If McCain gets in, they may momentarily retreat but they will redouble their preparations. They will presume a power struggle between Russia and America is unavoidable. Given McCain's temperment, that struggle can escalate rapidly. Russian strategic doctrine demands deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to counter American conventional precision munitions. Think about it. We really need to avoid shooting at these folk if at all possible. I do not trust McCain to not screw that up.
The situation with Russia grows more perilous by the day, it seems. Another foreign policy disaster unforeseen by the Bushistas.
|