Rasmussen (8/20, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/24 in parens):
Tom Udall (D): 52 (61)
Steve Pearce (R): 44 (35)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Big surge for Steve Pearce. But how does one spell "outlier"? This race has never been in single digits -- with the exception of a lone Rasmussen poll from February. It looks like the "Rasmussen non-bounce" may have struck again.
Has anything changed since July to make this an 8-point race? Pearce has taken to the airwaves in recent weeks, slamming Udall on the energy issue, and the Club For Growth nutters have joined in on the fun. That might be enough to bring Tomnotmark down from the 65% range, but you still have to figure that Udall is in commanding control of this race.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.
http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=33A62E671438A41A2EFA7B737BE20AD6?diaryId=2843