Zogby predicted it will be Gore against Giuliani. Rasmussen went out on a limb

[Quixote1818]

and predicted it would be Richardson against Giuliani. Sean Hannity had both pollsters on today making predictions and giving opinions.

The one way I see Richardson pulling off an upset is for him to take California which is heavily Hispanic. I am not sure how else Rasmussen came to that conclusion.

[AX10]

1. Both of them would clean Rudy's clock

Clark would just crush any Repug because he has an extremely strong backround.
Gore/Richardson? Clark/Richardson?

What about Richardson/Webb?

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Denver Mayor Wellington Webb (he's extremely popular)

and he's black!

[saltpoint]

2. I respect these guys' insights but believe Giuliani is dead on arrival.

A conservative fundie nutcase showing up for the GOP primary in several U.S. states is not going to tolerate Giuliani's multiple marriage difficulties, his estranged family relations, the so-called liberal stances on same-sex rights and Choice, not to mention the Catholic-big-city-back-east thing.

I know the polls currently have him in the lead for the Rethugs. But I'm not convinced those are sustainable numbers. Someone on John McCain's staff already has contracted out for a pile of television and radio ads that will whittle America's Mayor down to size. In doable doses, even Brownback will beat Giuliani in Iowa.

[AX10]

4. It's also too early.

Joe Scarbourough argued that there is a strong chance that the nominees have not even entered the race yet, or they they are very far behind.

That was the arguement to explain a possible Gore v. Gingrich 08' campaign.

[saltpoint]

9. I hear that argument. And there are historical precedents for it, too.

So I'm not closed to the option(s). I think Bill Clinton was running well less than 5% nationally a year before the Iowa caucuses.

I'll take what comes, but I'm expecting Giuliani to encounter considerable opponent turbulence in the coming months.

[AX10]

10. I'm expecting a bloodbath on the GOP's side for their nomination.

[saltpoint]

17. The bloodier the better, then. I'd love it if the various candidates

began splintering the party into irreconcilable factions. Let them rip at each others flesh and gnaw at each other's jugulars.

The GOP is in a weakened position going into a presidential year this time, and I'm all for taking maximum advantage of it. If they want to help out and tear each other to smithereens beforehand, I'm all for that, too!

[WorseBeforeBetter]

22. Yikes, I agree with Scarborough.

I've been thinking for a couple of weeks that it will be a Gore v. Nuck Fewt race. (I'm thinking maybe Clark as VP, if he'd accept it. Or possibly Gov. Easley of NC.) Newt is sucking up to Dobson and the wingnuts and they'll forgive him and that pesky little affair. Corporate Media won't present any of the other unsavoriness surrounding Newt, so he's safe. The wingnuts have been burned royally by the Bush Admin so they'll pull out all the stops to see that they get their GGG (God, gays, and guns) candidate in 2008.

I agree that it's too early. How can anyone sustain this pace, lead, etc. over this long a period of time? I'm getting to the point of tuning them out and it's only March 2007!

[napi21]

5. I think you're right in stating the findies will never accept Rudy, BUT

I'm not so sure they won't just stay home! So far, that group isn't happy with any of the candidates. The one reason I think Rudy might fall is because in almost every case, the front runner almost 2 years out NEVER is the winner!

[saltpoint]

11. I'd love to have the damn fundies stay home. That is a SWEET scenario.

Tell me how much money to lay down on the barrel and let's get that done.

True -- often those now first are later last, or at least they lose their top billing. This 2008 race is going to be a barnburner, isn't it.

[Nite Owl]

6. Agree with that

Ghouli also has a foot in mouth problem, he's bound to say something surreal that will help sink him with those currently entranced with his hero image.

[saltpoint]

13. Hi, Nite Owl. I may be underestimating the man, or under-counting his

supporters, but I just never got the "hero" thing from Giuliani.

There he was on the news with the bullhorn at Ground Zero, etc., but it just never reached me deep down as a significant performance. I was more impressed with the spouses of the victims and the pressure they brought to bear on Bush for accountability.

But I've been a poor guesser in primaries before, so I'm not claiming certainty on anything this far away from the first votes.

[Quixote1818]

7. I disagree

What I find interesting is how Hannity and Rush seem to be playing down Giuliani's less than conservative credentials. I get the impression they really don't have any conviction and just want to win. Both Zogby and Rasmussen felt Giuliani could weather his negatives.

When you have Pat Robertson giving the religious right the nod that it's OK to vote for Rudy you have to know they are all lining up behind him. I think Zogby and Rasmussen are absolutely spot on!


They also pointed out that California would put Rudy over the top. California is throwing everything out of whack this year because it allows a moderate to jump ahead early on unlike in the past when South Carolina shifted everything to the far, far right.

[AX10]

8. Alot can happen in the coming months.

[Quixote1818]

12. Absolutely

It is true that Rudy has a ton of negatives and the culmination could certainly do him in. And as someone pointed out, he has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth. You can't do that in this day in age.

I do however think the Religious Right will let Rudy slide because he is strong on defense. Thats almost all they really care about.

[saltpoint]

14. Could be. If California hands Rudy a big basket of delegates, his

chances would improve, granted. But he has to win in Iowa and/or New Hampshire to provide viability and context first, and I'm seeing some obstacles for him.

Iowa put Pat Robertson, of all people, second to Bush in one caucus. Fundie support is out there, although to date it's not enough to put a fundie candidate in first place in Iowa. But maybe with a crowded field this time, a Brownback could slip through and win there.

How awkward that would be for the Rethuglicans to have a certified nutcase win the Iowa caucuses.

[cally]

20. Only Republicans can vote in their primary,

independents are only allowed to vote in the Democratic primary in California. California Republicans are very conservative.

[Quixote1818]

23. Good point

I didn't think of that.

[madinmaryland]

15. I think Giuliani will be gone before the first primary.

He's only in it for the book deal. Make a bundle of money promoting himself, letting everyone else pay for it. Typical republic party tactic.

[Colobo]

16. I disagree with Zogby

I don't think Gore will run, and this thing is between Edwards, Obama, Giuliani & Romney. Among those 4 individuals is the next president of the USA.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

18. Gore vs Hagel.

Republics may put in Hagel just to lure some Dems over. But Gore will win hands down. :)

[Colobo]

19. Is he going to run?

I mean, everybody is saying Gore will run, except for Gore himself. Just like Wesley Clark, he's running according to everyone but himself.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

27. No probably not. He's the most desirable, qualified, experienced,

wished for, hoped for and prayed for candidate in the last one hundred and fify years and has already been elected once by the American people. Why on earth should he be interested this time?

Survey says.........

[dysfunctional press]

21. The republicans will cede the '08 election & Gore will run unapposed

oh wait...i keep forgetting that we're not living in a perfect world.

[WinkyDink]

24. It won't be Giuliani.

[nevergiveup]

25. I personally don't think

Giuliani can be stopped. The Republicans I know love him and wouldn't turn on him if it became known he had an affair with a horse. For the Democrats I think it will come down to Obama or Richardson. If Gore gets in it would be a different story but I believe he is happy with his life and will not run. A Gore endorsement of Obama this fall would not surprise me.

[femmocrat]

26. It won't be Richardson either. n/t