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Edited on Thu Jul-24-08 05:41 PM by aspergris
Are we in a recession?
yes
are people making money?
yes.
do bear markets offer immense opportunity?
yes.
every bear market in the history of mankind has. It's the same cycle over and over again.
if you dollar cost average, it means you are getting more shares for the same amount. when the market turns around (as it has every single time for centuries over the history of mankind and capital markets) , the downturn meant you got a lower average price.
for more aggressive investors it means you can find VALUE where once there was hype and euphoria. Iow, VALUE. Warrent Buffett knows this. He searches for value always. And never is there more value than when we have a big drop in price.
After the bank index sold off a couple of weeks ago, we just witnesses a FIFTY PERCENT BOUNCE in the banks. FIFTY PERCENT. so, of course they were overbought and are now retracing.
Keep a stable head, look for opportunity, employ hedges and don't think it's the end of the world.
When the vast majority of lay investors are pukin' in their cornflakes that's a good sign.
"buy when there is blood on the streets". "sell into euphoria"
Do I think we've seen a bottom in the equity markets? hell... no
Btw, corn was interesting today. It consolidated after a drop of over 25% in a couple of weeks.
That's the interesting thing about the gloom and doom'ers. They ONLY see the negative. They never see the upside or the opportunity. The real estate crash means real estate in many areas is FINALLY affordable as compared to average income. Iow, pluses and minuses.
Corn, which has been part of the broad based asset class inflation commodities boom is off TWENTY FIVE PERCENT in 2 weeks. Do any of the people who were decrying the high costs mention this as a positive ? Of course not.
Markets have ALWAYS gone through bubbles and pops. Euphoria and panic. That's how they work. There is thankfully no centralized authority determining price. They are about price discovery. It's a messy, chaotic (literally... many traders employ chaos, complexity theory as well as game theory to help understand the market), fractal wonder to behold. And in the long run NOTHING is better at building wealth and raising capital for thriving businesses, and individual investors. My grandfather, who lived through the depression taught me that. This was a very compassionate, and very smart man. He said INVEST. EVERY MONTH like clockwork. He started me as soon as I was old enough, and got me doing it every single month since. No matter what. Even when I could only afford $25.
There is no greater opportunity for the "everyman" than the markets.
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