Traders bet Obama beats McCain in election: 63-35% (as of today)

[Shoelace]

the article was from yesterday and as of today, Intrade lists Obama as being up by 2 points and McCain going down to 35 points (see Intrade's link to follow this with explanations, etc.). Is this not the best news we could get this day?

Thursday, June 5, 2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will beat Republican John McCain in the November U.S. presidential election, prediction market traders were betting on Wednesday.

Traders on the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market gave Obama a 61 percent chance of winning the November 4 election, versus a 35 percent chance for McCain. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets gave the Democrat an almost 62 percent chance of winning, versus a 39 percent chance for the Republican.

Traders were less certain about the vice presidential running mate for either candidate. Around midday on Wednesday, Obama's chief Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, was seen as having a 22 percent chance of being his pick.

Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, a former Navy secretary, was given an 19 percent chance of being Obama's choice, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had a 6 percent chance and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner a 5.5 percent chance.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0430811720080605

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

[ingac70]

1. I hope it is at least by that much.

I'd be giddy if all McCain got was Bush's 20 pecenters... or whatever it is he's polling these days.

We MUST have an ass stomp in Nov.

[Shoelace]

2. those aren't poll numbers (any Intrade experts out there?)

as far as I understand, these figures are what traders, investors who do Intrade, are betting on and for sure, Obama is who they are thinking will win this race in November. Those are the prices of the shares but I'm no expert on Intrade, just that I so love those numbers so far.
It makes you wonder where Rasmussen gets their poll numbers though if this market is so sure Obama is going to win.

[On the Road]

3. Current Intrade Numbers

                  %        Change
WEBB	        21.8%	+4.2%
CLINTON(H)	17.1%	+1.1%
RICHARDSON	 8.5%	+3.5%
WARNER        	 6.5%	-1.5%
GORE	         5.0%	-0.2%
CLARK	         4.0%	+0.9%
EDWARDS	         4.0%	-1.3%
BIDEN	         3.8%	-1.2%
STRICKLAND	 3.8%	-
DODD	         3.5%	+2.5%
NUNN	         2.6%	+1.1%
BAYH	         2.2%	0.5%
OBAMA	         1.0%	-
VILSACK	         1.0%	-
DASCHLE	         0.7%	-
KERREY	         0.4%	-0.1%
FIELD	        30.0%	-1.9%

Interesting.

[Shoelace]

4. what do those numbers represent?

are they the percentage of trades? I did look through the Intrade website for several state races to see who they figure is ahead, especially in AK, OK, etc., but didn't see those numbers anywhere. I'm very much a novice at these things.

[On the Road]

5. The First Column Represesnts the Probability

of each candidate being named VP. Jim Webb is ahead with 21% (or more accurately "None of the Above" is ahead with 30%). The second column is the % change yesterday -- in other words, whether the candidate's chances are rising or falling.

[Shoelace]

6. thanks! Jim Webb would be an excellent choice for VP

that is if the power brokers decide that he's going to help win in November.