DU Economists: Have the U.S. Markets neared their Bottoms?

[Mike03]

Some sectors and funds are beginning to look attractive to me. Yet, for good and obvious reason, I'm filled with trepidation at the thought of getting into this market.

What do you think? Is there still a great deal more shaking out to come, or do you think the markets have nearly completed their corrections?

[movonne]

1. I'm not an economist but I think we have just begun....a whole lot

worse....

[Warpy]

2. It keeps trying to bottom out

and that fool Bernanke keeps lowering interest rates. The market gets jubilant for a day or two and then the slide starts again as people realize that interest cuts aren't going to do a damned thing for the larger economy.

Look at the stocks you're considering. Check out how they've been performing in terms of paying dividends. Bonds will look more attractive in the near future as the bond insurance mess gets straightened out.

If another GOP gets in, the markets are sunk. No GOP will ever do what's necessary to save the economy because it runs counter to all their crackpot economic dogma, dogma that hasn't changed since Harding/Coolidge/Hoover created the Great Depression.

[Mike03]

7. Good advice.

I couldn't agree with you more about Bernanke; he is going to prolong a disastrous situation.

I had not been considering dividends in my evaluations, but thanks to your advice I will certainly do that.

[Common Sense Party]

3. If you laid 1000 DU "Economists" end-to-end, they still couldn't

reach a conclusion.

There are probably very few real economists here.

Nobody here has a crystal ball.

No one has any idea what the millions and millions of individual and institutional investors that comprise "the market" are going to decide in the near-term or in the long-term.

My opinion--which is worth nothing--is that if a sector or a fund looks attractive LONG-TERM, and you think it is at an acceptable price now, go for it. By "long-term" I mean do you think that fund or that sector might plausibly be HIGHER in value ten years from now. It may go down before it goes up, and it will very likely fluctuate along the way.

[Mike03]

8. Yes, I am definitely thinking Long Term

In fact, it's the same old same old (sectors I have been positive on for five years):

Petroleum and petroleum related
Metals and Mining
Hard currencies and precious metals
Natural Resources
Water and Agriculture
(Health care, to some extent)
Some Emerging

Nothing too exotic here. But can these sectors continue to perform this well?

I'm especially concerned about commodities; can growth continue in China at this rate? Is India next?

[Warpy]

12. China is extremely vulnerable

because they have the same wealth distribution we have and they are starting to see larger and larger riots. They're one natural disaster away from the next revolution, one that could easily see all foreign industry completely nationalized and the profits spread much more widely.

India has a completely different set of problems, but they're going to have to take care of their agricultural producers, too, if they want to survive.

[panader0]

4. I'm in construction and it hasn't picked up yet.

But the pendulum always swings back. I don't go for the doom and gloom theories, things will pick up eventually. The investors trick is to jump in just before it does. Good luck. After the GE, we'll see an upswing.
Edit to say: I think any alternative energy or "green" investment will show positive growth. It has to.

[SoCalDem]

5. If you mean..did they kiss their asses goodbye?..maybe n/t

[DJ13]

6. Not an economist either, but I do watch the stock markets

Weve had a bear rally in the last few weeks.

After the institutions get repositioned into safer positions it will fall a lot farther.

Oil closed out today at $100.01, the first close above $100.

Its going to get bad from here on out.

[DCKit]

9. The only thing I've been sure of as a good investment since *...

was sElected is OIL and any corporation associated with it's import and processing.

Manipulation of the market has got completely out of control since 2000 and I don't feel safe playing at anything, especially with a big change coming in the Congress next year. I have to wonder "will they investigate?", "who might they investigate?", and "will it be business as usual?".

[dantyrant]

10. Don't look at the broad indices...

Follow the sectors you're interested in....

The Dow has been going sideways, but when financials have gone down, metals have gone up, etc... some sectors are still cheap now...

That said, I'd stay away from any businesses that aren't suited to the coming investment climate. I'm sticking to resources and staying the hell away from financials!

[Mike03]

11. Yes, you make tremendous sense, and good points.

Just as there are attractive sectors, there are those sectors that appear to be toxic right now, and the vast majority of the financials are among them. Maybe there are two or three exceptions, but basically I think you are right.

[Common Sense Party]

15. Personally, I'm a contrarian.

Financials look very good right now. Not necessarily the companies with high subprime exposure...but there are insurance companies with pristene balance sheets, with no significant exposure to subprime at all, and their stocks have been beaten down by the media hysteria over the "subprime meltdown." Some of those companies are at bargain prices.

[L. Coyote]

13. Depends on which ones? Housing? Commodities, Oil, Stocks, Bonds, Treasuries, Notes,

complex equation and interplay is not easy to predict "accurately."

For many, it is too late to try to move out of investments without loss, and that slow selling in any bear situation.

[CK_John]

14. Not an economist, but the Fed have been pouring 50Bil a month into the market to prop it up. They

have gamed all the indexes. This will last until all the smart money(their friends) is out and safe in hidden accounts and then look out.