"Everyone turned out, even the pages." Obama & McCain

[Dawgs]

http://www.barackobama.com/2007/02/23/i_trust_him_standoffish_iowans.php

Just before Obama appeared at a town hall meeting Wednesday, he went to the gold-domed Iowa Legislature to meet Democratic politicians.

Everyone turned out, even the pages. "I was trying to be skeptical," said Sen. Jack Hatch, "but he was even more substantive than I was expecting." Hatch hasn't thrown his support to Obama -- he is a classic wait-and-see Iowan -- but the state's attorney general, Tom Miller, and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald are enthusiastically backing the Illinois senator.

Even some registered Republicans have succumbed.

Monica Green voted for George Bush last time. But at the town hall session, she was volunteering for Obama. She even contributed $250 to his campaign. She has never done that before, not even for a Republican. "I trust him when he says he wants to transform politics," she says. "Just call me a Republican voting for Barack Obama."

In Iowa, she is not alone.

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This is the kind of person we need running against Guiliani. I don't believe McCain gets the nomination, and here's why.

I know someone that ate with the wives of Congresspeople from another state just other the day. They were talking about a visit McCain made recently to their state legistlature (similar to Obama's visit) and how he looked really bad. They said he was boring and unimpressive. They didn't feel like they could support him. Again, these were the wives of Republicans from another state's Congress.

McCain is old, doesn't look good, and is unimpressive. I don't think he has any chance of getting the nomination.

[Poiuyt]

1. Will we see Obama Republicans like there were Reagan Democrats?

[Hamlette]

2. I agree about McCain...and the "kids" are very excited about Obama

(by kids I mean young political college + age)

Think about it, they "grew up" with Bush and have some vague memories of Clinton BUT their memories of Clinton are of him being impeached.

To that generation it appears our country has gone seriously awry.

If (and that is a big "if") Obama could turn out more 20 somethings, he might pull it off.

Thanks for the post, great news.

[Dawgs]

3. Absolutely agree!!!

The "kids" love Obama.

I disagree about your "if" statement. I see him getting almost all Democrats, many Independants, a very large number of African Americans, and a few Bush voting Republicans.

[Czolgosz]

4. McCain may or may not get the nomination, but Giuliani surely won't.

Giuliani is pro-choice and has even supported the right to D&X procedures (called partial-birth abortions by the folks who won't be voting for Giuliani).

Giuliani opposed Bush on banning on gay marriage and extended all city benefits to same-sex couples.

Giuliani opposed prayer in school.

Giuliani has proposed that all gun owners ought to have to pass a written test.

Giuliani supports the Senate's immigration bill will a guest worker plan and a path to citizenship( called amnesty by the folks who won't be voting for Giuliani).

There is zero-point-zero chance that Giuliani will get the nomination (and that's leaving aside his sexcapades in the governor's mansion and his divorce-by-press-conference and his "accidental" marriage to a cousin etc.) once the base gets wind of Giuliani's record on not being a complete tool on every issue.

[Dawgs]

5. You're right, but if not McCain or Guiliani then who?

BTW, thanks for the info. I wasn't aware of his positions on school prayer and immigration.

[Czolgosz]

6. It's early. One of the fundamentalist candidates will break out , probably Brownback, maybe Huckabee

and it remains to be seen whether the fundamentalists will embrace a Mormon or react with the intolerant view that Mormonism is a cult (polling suggests they won't support a Mormon).

The freeper base will either remain divided or will unite behind some complete tool like Hunter or Tancredo.

After the fundamentalists and freepers pick their candidate, Hagel ought to be able to unite the anti-war Repubs who aren't already on the Brownback/Huckabee or Hunter/Tancredo bandwagons.

It remains to be seen whether Gingrich or Jeb (or Hagel, for that matter) will run. I predict Hagel will run, Gingrich will sort-of run (he'll run an Alan-Keyes style campaign to influence the debate but without ever raising the serious money to be a genuine contender), and Jeb won't run.

On balance, I still think it is McCain's to lose, but he seems on tract to lose it. Unless the neocons and corporatists consolidate around a candidate soon (McCain or Romney?), one of the fundamentalist candidates may pull off a shocking performance in Iowa and New Hampshire and then build from there. I see the Goldwater model as a likely model for Brownback: I could see him pulling off an upset for the nomination and then losing nearly all 50 states.