On the chances of DK

[BelgianMadCow]

If you attach credibility to the polls (and I do to at least some degree), DK is a candidate with very little overall support.

Why do you think this is?

Personally, I think it has to do with the media (of course) picking only establishment candidates and not awarding equal time AT ALL. The Bill and Hillary rounds on all the major talk shows prove that beyond a doubt, as did the time allotment in the democratic debates.

Unfortunately, DK does not perform at his best when only given sound bite time (just like many really good politicians, choices are seldom so easy a sound bite does them right). Sound bites are maybe the only attention span the average viewer can entertain, so that is a big disadvantage. Some of the other candidates (Biden comes to mind) perform a lot better when given little time imho.

I also have to be honest, and even without starting off on his stature or looks, say that the image he projects does not do right to the accuracy and courage of his positions. He has the fire of his convictions clouding his PR, and actually that is a good thing, but in the politics of personalities (which I disagree with), that again is a disadvantage.

BUT, and here comes the big but, even if DK will have a very hard time getting anywhere in the primaries, a vote for him is not lost and neither is defending him and spreading knowledge on his positions.
He had a couple percent of the vote in 04. Improving that to for example 5% would already be a very good thing. Even candidates who don't win the nomination, can influence the debate.

IF he were to be the nominee, he WOULD get air time, and I think there's a good chance once his positions are known, that people would be very inspired by him and that he would handily defeat the opposition.

What do you think can be done to overcome these disadvantages (if you agree they are)?

[Tuesday Afternoon]

1. bookmarking

TA

[BelgianMadCow]

3. Thank you TA. What would be your answers to the 2 questions?

The thanks are because I have the bad habit of posting in the wee hours (my morning). How come you're still up? I always wonder about those that DO reply see :-)

:hi:

[Tuesday Afternoon]

9. I am an insomniac

I really don't know what the anwswers are to your questions. I am very much interested in what others have to say. This whole campaign season has me bamboozled.

[Basileus Basileon]

2. Because he is very unpopular.

When you have a 28% favorable rating, a 4% support rating, and the only people who more voters have listed as "ruled out" are Mike Gravel and Ron Paul (all three in the 75% range) nobody is going to give you airtime or interview you. I'd say his lack of popularity is a cause of, not a result of, his lack of coverage.

I agree he can influence the debate. I agree he is very useful. And don't think I'm saying that he isn't a good man, because I think he's one of the best Congressmen we've got. He just isn't popular.

Why? Couple reasons. First, he doesn't play nice; he has few allies in Congress. Nobody will stick up for him; he's burned most of his bridges. Good for him, in a way; he has a history of always sticking up for what he thinks is right, no matter how much his party wishes he'd just shut up and agree to sign on to a compromise. Second, he's very uncharismatic. Shouldn't matter, but it does. Thirdly, he's far more liberal than most people are. That's why I want him out there in every debate, and why I want to give him equal airtime (the fact that any candidate gets more than any other in the debates is offensive to me.) But the lack of support for his message, as good as his message is, is also part of the reason why he's not garnering much support.

[EFerrari]

4. DK is hugely popular with people. With corporations, not so much.

And our elections are bought and paid for by corporations.

[LeftCoast]

6. Are those stats incorrect?

I think BB makes a good point, assuming the stats are right.

A lot of people on DU admire DK because of his uncompromising values, but unfortunately our systems is designed in such a way as to require compromise to get things accomplished.

I think the biggest challenge our elected officials face is where to draw the line between your values and your desire to get things done.

[EFerrari]

12. I don't pretend to know the electorate in any special way.

But I notice that the average DUer is a middle class, middled aged white woman, not a flaming leftist like me.

And, imho, besides getting people dead, the biggest sin of Junior's administration is the compromise deficit.

:shrug:

[BelgianMadCow]

13. Politics in a democracy IS about compromise, I agree, but

I'd say that in order to shift the compromise towards the needs of the PEOPLE, that compromise should be between a much more progressive idea and the conservative one.

I fail to see how the shift to the right of the Democratic Party is anything other than pandering. It is NOT respecting the will of the people.

I'm not putting words in your mouth by the way, just saying...

[EFerrari]

16. Our system is front loaded in favor of big business.

Yes, our candidates ask for our twenty dollars but their real constituency is the multinationals because the campaigning never stops now -- in itself, it is an industry.
.
We are very far away from elections being any business of the electorate. That's not how campaigns are funded.

[BelgianMadCow]

50. Yeah, campaign financing and corporate donations are at the heart of this

Together with media regulation, the first things to tackle to level the playing field...

[LeftCoast]

14. I don't think DU is reflective of the general electorate at all

For one thing, we're all rabidly interested in politics while the average person...not so much.

I agree with you about Junior's sin/flaw. I think his administration has been remarkable in it's ability to hold back the forces of compromise for as long as they did. I think his party is now seeing the ugly consequences of that and will be for the next decade (or longer hopefully).

[EFerrari]

20. I think you are right about DU insofar as DU doesn't reflect

the general electorate. But, imho, it does reflect likely Democratic voters. And, that's why it interests me so much, fwiw, because there is little mediation between DUers and the polls posted here.

[LeftCoast]

21. Not sure what you mean by mediation

In any case, it would be interesting to poll DUers and compare that to electorate stats. Though thinking more about it, I'm not sure what good it would do you. Even assuming the membership of DU accurately reflects Democratic voters at large it would be difficult to learn anything from our responses here. Self-selection is a big problem here. Only those people most interested usually respond to polls or threads.

[EFerrari]

24. You're not going to believe this, lol, but Jeff Gannon was just on

BookTv.

Peter interviewed him about his current offering and gave him ample time to promote his next.

lol

All I mean about mediation is that members at DU seem to be a bit more active consumers and so more critical consumers of what the corporate media puts out there.

[PeaceNikki]

49. I disagree. I don't even think DU represents CLOSE to the majority of Dem voters.

We're a microcosm. In addition we're the small portion who are most outraged, most offended and most aware.

The bulk of the Dems out there just want to get elected, to get the white house back and to get control of the mess that exists. That means compromise and incremental change. It also means getting away from this attitude that our line of thinking is the only one that exists. That is what's broken our democracy. This "you're with us or against us" mentality has worked for shit.

Radical revolution would rock, but it's just not going to happen.

[BelgianMadCow]

51. But DU is not just the leftmost 1% either, so Dennis should be able to poll higher

If people had our info. I would think the DU center lies at 40% away from the average of the population, and is a gauss distribution between the far left and the - 30% position. That means, considering Dennis has overwhelming support here, that he has a lot more potential than 1 or 2%.

And on "radical revolution won't work", well, what would you do if Bush declares himself to be the US's Musharraf?
Okay, that is farfetched I hope.

[PeaceNikki]

53. I contend that it does include the leftmost side of the party.

I have all of "our" info and I am NOT a DK supporter because I do. He is not the Messiah to me that he is to many here.

And, if Bush declares himself to be the US's Musharraf, all bets are off - but I still would not support Kucinich to lead the revolution.

[EFerrari]

56. DU is actually pretty moderate. Passionate but moderate

as far as I can tell.

[Naturyl]

7. I disagree that he is uncharismatic.

I think he's done very well on that front in every debate, and some of his speeches (to unions, for example) have been fantastic. I don't think I see it this way just because I support him, either. He comes across with a lot of energy and passion, and those qualities indicate charisma.

[BelgianMadCow]

8. I agree that his uncompromising positions

are probably alienating people, because the rest of the debate is SOOOOOOOOO far to the right. The entire US politics are to the right of what we have here.

When you say "lack of support for his positions", why do you think that is? For example, single payer not for profit healthcare is THE way to go and we are proving it every day. I cannot help think that is a majority position if people where educated instead of scared.

His uncompromising style may make him unpopular withing the party, but I'd think a lot of people want REAL change and he does represent that. His popularity in the party is not relevant in a presidential race, is it? And on edit : his opposition to the Iraq War and Impeachment resolution are ALSO majority positions by now...

We agree on his value - I failed to mention he would be my candidate in the primaries. You stated it well, the lack of equal time in the debates is VERY offensive. It is also the best way to cater to the status quo, and obviously no accident.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Check state polls

in particular NH.. you might be in for a surprise

He is a dark horse

But the press is going out of its way to prevent folks from knowing that

They are doing the same to Ron Paul on the other side (who doesn't have my vote)...

And you must have to ask... WHY?

I'd say at the very least this is far from Democratic...

[MonkeyFunk]

33. I just checked some NH polls...

ARG has him at 3%
St. Anselm has him at 3%
Marist has him at 2%

That's a mighty dark horse.

[99th_Monkey]

10. I'm not sure I can agree with the premise that his fire clouds his PR

But I really DO think you may be onto something there, but then again maybe not.

Dennis may have an acquired-taste factor .. the more he sticks to his guns, the more he gradually rises
to the top of the pack as more and more people begin to recognize the truth of his being and appreciate
the irony of seeing such a small guy manage time and time again to somehow stand taller than any of the
other contenders.

Just a thought.

[BelgianMadCow]

11. I know. The premise is based on the dem debate

I had the feeling he wanted to get his (good) points across so much it kind of detracted from the message imho.

My dad always says the same about me when I go on a rant on US politics by the way :-)

And he DOES stand taller than the rest, well said.

On edit : a belated welcome to DU! :toast:

[BelgianMadCow]

15. I'm off for half an hour - please keep it constructive

as my main question is what hurdles we need to overcome to get him front and center, and what we can DO to achieve that.

[silverojo]

17. Sorry, DK lovers

But ever since JFK ushered in the TV age of elections, candidates have needed charisma to win. DK has ideas, but zero charisma. Case in point: Walter Mondale. Another case in point: George McGovern.

What can DK do to overcome this? That's like asking someone to grow a third arm by sheer willpower alone. You're either born with it, or you're not. :(

[Naturyl]

22. Again, I totally disagree. I must be seeing a different DK.

The one I see has plenty of charisma, and performs well at every debate and speech. I see enthusiasm, literacy, intelligence, and humor. Where is this "uncharismatic" idea coming from?

[Yukari Yakumo]

38. And...

But ever since JFK ushered in the TV age of elections, candidates have needed charisma to win. DK has ideas, but zero charisma. Case in point: Walter Mondale. Another case in point: George McGovern.

And Dukakis, and Gore circa 2000, and Kerry...

[deacon]

18. Who? Who DESERVES a vote more than him? Anything else at this point is

voting against what is preached here.

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Maybe he should open a campaign office in Iowa for starters

[LeftCoast]

23. Wha?

He doesn't have a campaign office in IA?

Edited to add:

This site says his HQ in IA is at

3407 Ingersoll, Des Moines (the Iowa Savings Bank building)

Read Original Doc

[Hippo_Tron]

26. No he does not, which is why he gets excluded from many Iowa Dem events

His apologists on DU will tell you that he doesn't take corporate money and therefore he can't afford one, which is the biggest crock of shit I've ever heard. Candidates for school board have campaign offices, for god's sake.

Kucinich has this holier than thou attitude about how he is better than Hillary and Obama because they have millions of dollars to run their campaign and he doesn't and that if we don't support him we support a system that is stacked against little guys like him. Well sorry Dennis, but the fact that you don't have big money isn't a good enough reason to support you. I support candidates who work to overcome that disadvantage.

The guy in my avatar did just that. He assembled an army of volunteers, went door to door and got support from traditionally Republican areas, and then finally raised enough money to run very short and very effective television ads. Iowa is a proven springboard to the nomination and it is a state that is even smaller than Minnesota. If Kucinich were serious about getting the nomination he would apply Wellstone's tactics to Iowa. But Kucinich doesn't seem to think this is a good idea since he has decided that traveling to Syria is a better use of campaign funds than opening an office in Iowa.

Sorry Kucinich supporters but being right on certain issues that other candidates aren't isn't enough to earn my support. If I was simply looking for someone to say the right things, then I would just run myself. Candidates have to demonstrate that they take the race seriously to earn my support and Dennis doesn't even come close.

[Naturyl]

31. The guy in your avatar was brilliant.

But if Kucinich doesn't have a campaign office in Iowa, couldn't it be that he has some vaild reason for that decision? Perhaps he felt resources were best used elsewhere. He has very little money, you know. When you have only raised $2.1 million for the whole campaign and 1.9 of it has been spent, every dollar counts, especially when the frontrunners have budgets in the tens of millions.

[Hippo_Tron]

34. If he felt that resources could be used elsewhere then he is an idiot

Iowa is pretty much the entire game, whether you have $100 million or absolutely nothing. Because of its first in the nation status, a strong showing in Iowa propels candidates to frontrunner status. Jimmy Carter was unknown nationally and his upset victory in Iowa won him the nomination. It's not rocket science, it's presidential primary politics 101. The first thing you have to do is set up a good organization in Iowa.

Even if a strong Iowa showing didn't ultimately bring Dennis to the nomination it would certainly help him bring about the kind of change that he wants to. The establishment would be shitting their pants if he came in first or second in Iowa.

[Naturyl]

37. True, but he had an Iowa office in 2004

And it did him no good. Maybe he has different priorities this time around.

However, I can't quibble with your analysis. Why Dennis does not have an Iowa office will have to remain a mystery to me.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. I'll offer the possibility that perhaps Howard Dean's campaign stifled his chances in '04

Because Dean did in fact build that kind of grassroots campaign, leaving little opening for Kucinich to do the same. There is certainly no Howard Dean in the race this time.

And I should add that I certainly don't fault you for supporting Kucinich. I just get sick of this holier than thou attitude from DUers who can't understand why I don't support the "only real progressive" in the race. I'm looking for a candidate who is progressive and can run a strong campaign. There is no such candidate in this race and so I'm forced to compromise in one of those areas and I've made the decision that I will go with one of the candidates that can run a strong campaign.

Some Kucinich supporters it seems to me are unable to face reality, although that is not the case for many, including yourself. I have just chosen to handle reality in a different way than those Kucinich supporters.

[Naturyl]

45. Yeah, I understand what you're getting at

And frankly, if he doesn't have an Iowa campaign office, that is a pretty big concern for me as well. I'd like to believe he knows what he is doing and he is serious about the race, but I'm well-aware that what I'd like to believe isn't always what is the case. A lack of an Iowa office does strongly suggest a candidacy intended primarily to make a statement rather than to win. However, I'm not necessarily totally uncomfortable with that, because I don't think Dennis has a realistic chance of winning anyway - but I still can't understand how he would figure that a strong Iowa showing could do anything but catapult his message into the spotlight. Why he wouldn't want to do well in Iowa, whether to win or simply to move the discourse in his direction, is a mystery to me at the moment.

So yeah, I do understand your reasoniong here quite clearly, I think. Who is your candidate, BTW?

[Hippo_Tron]

46. Obama, but I'm not a militant supporter

You won't see me involved in the Hillary Obama wars on DU because I'm fully aware that really there's just not that much difference between what they are proposing despite all of the rhetoric.

My reason for supporting Obama is that I think he's smart enough and capable enough to do the job yet at the same time he hasn't been in politics enough to have a locked in attitude about how he will do things. I think that Hillary has seen the way things wee done during her husband's administration and has already determined exactly how she will handle every single situation. With Obama I think he will at least be open to new ideas and new ways of doing things.

It may turn out that he ends up using the same old DLC policies and tactics but I think it's far less likely than if Hillary get in. Truth be told, though, I'm not 100% sure how Hillary would govern either. In Bill's defense he had no real mandate to speak of and many of the Dem committee chairs controlling congress for his first two years were to the right of him, making it difficult to pass even his very centrist agenda.

Basically, I'm ready to see a Democrat with a serious mandate have a chance to govern and that is what I hope to see come out of 2008. I look at the crop of new senators that we might have including people like Al Franken and both Mark and Tom Udall and no matter how the presidential candidates look, I am very encouraged by the changing makeup of congress. Again, I think if the Democrats do get that mandate, Obama is going to be the one who will take the risk and move away from the DLC third way agenda. But I think there's a chance that maybe even Hillary will shy away from it a bit, especially with the right congress.

[Naturyl]

47. Respectable reasoning, but I can't quite go there.

If Obama is the nominee, he has my vote. So does Hillary, for that matter, although I'll be holding my nose. However, I feel like I've got to do something at least somewhat progressive with my advocacy. Edwards is a strong #2 on my list, and depending on what I ultimately decide on this Iowa office issue with Kucinich, I could potentially consider throwing Edwards my support. He's already got my primary vote, because Kucinich missed the filing deadline in my state. But as for Obama, I'm just not comfortable with some of the things he's been saying lately.

[LeftCoast]

40. I hadn't heard this before

Still curious what the website I googled was referring to.

If this is true (sorry to question what you say, but this is such surprising news to me) then he's only running to make a statement.

[Naturyl]

43. I couldn't find anything for '08

And believe me, I wanted to. This bothers me as well. But all I could find was the info on his '04 Iowa office (the address posted above).

[BelgianMadCow]

52. I was unaware too, but even if he only gets heard, it's worthwile already.

It is an important thing to point out though.

[KharmaTrain]

25. Organizations Win Elections

Politics 101...the candidate with the most people working for them generally win elections. This doesn't mean TV ads or websites, it requires actual bodies on the ground, knocking on doors, calling on the phone (human voice, not robocall) and making sure these people get to the polls on election day. This is what the major campaigns have done and DK hasn't. It's what develops name recognition which in turn generates polls which in turn can generate visibiity and money. A case in point on the Repugnican side are both Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee. While still both understaff and underfunded, they've put an emphasis in their ground operation that has helped them rise in the polls and get more attention/money.

Dennis has proved a valuable asset in this campaign cycle in bringing up issues in the campaign that other candidates have to address. However, with little real "grassroots" on the ground, many who could be more familiar with him aren't, others only see the media cartoon of him, not the real person...a legitimate candidate, not one they only see on a TV screen among many others.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. But, but, he doesn't take corporate money so he can't afford an organization

:eyes:

[KharmaTrain]

30. Wouldn't That Be A Bitch

However, people power is starting to make an impact in helping the smaller campaigns. It's opened a tap where candidates like Kucinich could bring in far more money than in the past. But then the question is how that money is spent. But that's another issue.

Cheers...

[Naturyl]

28. Ron Paul has a self-motivated "organization"

Most of them are unpaid, unofficial, and not even affliated with any "organized" effort. They are fired-up by libertarian-induced visions of tax cuts and the "undeserving poor" finally getting what they deserve in the form of cat food dinners. They call it "liberty" and a "revolution" and it gets their shorts in an enormous energetic wad, which they relieve by spamming everything in sight.

Unfortunately, I think it is pretty much impossible to get grassroots individuals that fired-up about progressive ideas in today's political climate. If it were possible, Dennis would be the guy to do it. But Dennis doesn't appeal to the sort of self-interested hacks who get excited about Ron Paul.

[Hippo_Tron]

32. Read The Conscience of a Liberal

Wellstone did just that. Of course it helps that he actually opened a campaign office.

[Naturyl]

36. Alright, you have a point. But Wellstone was Wellstone.

Let's not underemphasize just what a genius Wellstone was. Kucinich is my candidate, but he is no Wellstone.

And I'm willing to concede that opening a campaign office in Iowa seems like a very obvious good move. In fact, I wasn't aware he didn't have one and I'm rather taken aback by the idea. Still, I think Dennis' campaign staff know what they are doing. He had an Iowa office in 2004, so perhaps his experience at that time convinced him that it wasn't worthwhile.

[mmonk]

29. Don't know if the corporate setup can be defeated unless people

just decide not to follow it. I don't intend to follow it. I'm finding out it really doesn't support my overall interests.

[shadowknows69]

35. If Dennis were to suddenly get a huge influx of donations they would take notice

They will inevitably give voice to those most likely to line their advertising pockets.

[Yukari Yakumo]

41. Unfortunately, people want to invest in a winner.

Kuch is not remotely a winner is anyone's eyes but the extreme left.

[Double T]

39. Time to change the way WE think about politicians.

We already know the way we are doing things NOW does not work.

[NuttyFluffers]

44. its failure by fiat in an age of deregulated media

if you're a media conglomerate you don't want your big business contracts and ad dollars walking away, now do you? so you do a media silence while your buds pay for fixed polls that ask loaded questions. then you tout these predicative polls as 'THE TRUTH' and continue your media silence on your targets. then you cozy up to any big fish that'll be indebted to you and make them your media darlings. finally when "everyone got what the want" you start making your darling, your mark, pay up extortion for maintaining good exposure. then he who pays the most extortion is given the crown to be the "Embezzler-in-Chief" to rob the country blind and secure your financial interests.

the world really has never been that complicated. getting the "herd" up to speed has been, though. some days it just seems easier to join the 'darkside' and cull the herd... but resist, it's the right thing to do.

[TreasonousBastard]

48. Why blame the media when the real problem is...

Kucinich himself? He might have some interesting positions, but positions are easy-- running the country is not. What happens when Dennis the Just refuses to compromise on an unpopular position? What if he (gasp!) takes a position that even much of his his most leftwing base doesn't support?

How many times has he run, and how often has he maintained a popularity roughly equal to the flu? That can't be purely a media conspiracy-- it more likely has something to do with nobody in the real world giving a shit about him.

He'a been notoriously ineffective in Congress largely because of his habit of dropping fart bombs rather than building coalitions, so what would give anyone the thought that he could be an effective President?

[BelgianMadCow]

54. Can some more of the 100 plus DK supporters chime in as well please?

I am curious about their answers as well.

[BelgianMadCow]

55. shameless into the fray kick, hoping for more suggestions

:kick: