Four Day War: Scenario of How War on Iran Would Go

[Disturbed]

Sept 2004: Four Day War: Scenario of How War on Iran Would Go

What follows is the unfolding of a worst-case scenario, an imaginary yet all-too-possible depiction of how events might develop if Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Day One: Wednesday -- In a pre-dawn raid, undisclosed numbers of Israeli warplanes, taking off from military airbases in the Negev, destroy Iran’s main nuclear facility at Bushehr. ..During the one-hour raid, Iran claims to have shot down “several” Israeli fighters. Television images show pilots being lynched by furious mobs before Iranian authorities could reach them. The after-effects of the raid shake the Arab and Islamic world. Millions take to the streets demanding immediate action against Israel...American intelligence convinced Israel that as long as Musharraf remains in power, Pakistan does not represent an imminent threat. The decision was made not to hit Pakistan.

Day Two: Thursday - Iran retaliates. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards are dispatched across the border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops as possible. Iranian sleeper agents, who have infiltrated Iraq since the downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shi’ites into action. Tehran orders the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, Hezbollah, into action against northern Israel. Hezbollah launches scores of rockets and mortars against kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliates. Crowds of gigantic proportions take to the streets, ransacking Israeli embassies in Cairo, Amman, and Ankara. American embassies in a number of other cities are burned.

Day Three: Friday - Following Friday prayers across the Islamic world, crowds incited by fiery sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi take to the streets in the worst protests yet. In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security forces in several cities. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel.

Day Four: Saturday - A longstanding plan to overthrow Musharraf is carried out by senior Pakistani army officers loyal to the Islamic fundamentalists and with close ties to bin Laden. Within hours, and before news of the coup leaks out, Pakistan, now run by pro-bin Laden fundamentalists, loads two nuclear weapons aboard executive Lear jets dive into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the process.

The rest of this scenario can unfold in a number of ways. Take your pick; none are
encouraging.

Israel retaliates against Pakistan, killing millions in the process. Arab governments fall. Following days of violence, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt succumb to Islamist rebels who vow open warfare with Israel. The Middle East regresses into war, with the fighting claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. A much-weakened Israel, now struggling for its very survival, deploys more nuclear weapons, targeting multiple Arab capitals. The Middle East is in complete mayhem, as the United States desperately tries to arrange a cease-fire.

http://stopthewarnow.net/iran/warscenarios.html

[Sherman A1]

1. Anything is possible

It's a tinder box and we are walking around with a lit cigarette. Time to take those duck & cover drills out of the folder and dust them off.....

:hide:

[frogcycle]

2. if this were to occur with cheney still in power

the US would not be trying to broker a cease-fire

[Wiley50]

3. Plausible except the US will be active participant n/t

[BlackHawk706867]

4. The only things that you left out in your scenario is what Russia and

China will do if this were to occur!

ww

[Individualist]

33. Exactly! That would (will?) be the worst case scenario.

It's doubtful Russia and China will stand idly by when an attack is launched against Iran.

[DCKit]

5. Day Five: Sunday - Jesus comes back nt

[Disturbed]

6. I believe that a War On Iran would be more horrible than

outlined in this report.

[Joe for Clark]

8. Pretty funny.

Good one.

Joe

[BlackHawk706867]

7. The Mayan Calender ends at December 23, 2012 and a war with Iran...

could mean that their timing is off by about 5 years.

ww

[Joe for Clark]

9. Really it is the equinox - so it is 12/21/2012 -

According to them - but it isn't just them. The Hopis say the same thing - and they were very direct about it. Many peoples are in about the same place about this.

The thing I really cannot rationalize - you ever read "Black Elk Speaks" - in college or wherever??

Maybe the right title is Black Elk Speaks No More -one of the two.

And he was a Souix. Cause most of what he said did pass.

He was the last true medicine man before wounded knee.

One of the most dire warnings I ever read.

I always really did respect the Plains Indians. I always thought they knew a lot more then we ever did in some respects.

And by the way - wars can surely last five years - as we all well know at this point.

Joe

[BlackHawk706867]

11. Your correct it was the 12/21/2012 and the book is "Black Elk Speaks"

from "Black Elk's World" There is an electronic edition out that I was just thinking about ordering actually...

ww

[Joe for Clark]

13. I would REALLY advise reading it -

I still remember "BLack Elk Speaks...."

Book gives me nightmares - to this day. And it had to be 25 years ago I read it in school.

He was just so matter of fact - I think you should read it all the way thru.

He gives no dates you know - just a chronology. The destruction of his people and then the destruction of all people following.

They say - he cried as he gave that last bit of information about the destruction.

I guess I am partial to the Plains Indians - the Souix and the Cheyenne etc...

I guess I always respected them so much.

I would read it. He was a great man.

Joe

[Selatius]

10. I don't think Israel will hit Iran. I think the US will do it.

At this point, Israel knows the US has a better capability to reach out and hit targets deep inside Iran through superior US air power.

The wild card is the economic and political fall out from such a venture. The US and world economy will likely suffer a gigantic oil shock not seen since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Capitals in Europe and elsewhere will condemn the US action, and the citizens in the street will compare the US government to Hitler's government in 1939.

A second wild card is whether multiple nations in the region will be sucked into an expanding conflict. Syria has a mutual defense pact with Iran. Would they enter the war?

[Disturbed]

12. Syrian troops from West of Iraq, Iranian Troops from the North

Turkish Troops swooping in the decimate the PKK. Saudis? If this attack occurs it will be WW4. Amerika will lose.

[Selatius]

15. The Saudis will get involved if Iran retaliates through Iraq against the US.

They must do so. Otherwise, Iraq will become even more controlled by the Shias at the expense of Sunni power in the region. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should, hopefully, urge Bush to allow cooler heads to prevail because the options for everyone in the region aren't good for anyone if a war erupts. There will be no easy choices once a war breaks out.

[Joe for Clark]

17. Yeah, basically.

This has nothing to do with religion anymore. Maybe it did once - not now. This is about money now.

Today - right now - between 20 and 25 Divisions of Turks (our NATO ally) are massed to the north of Kurdistan. About the same number (my estimates) of Iranians are massed to the east. These people do not like the Kurds - territorial disputes trump.

They both shell Kurdistan - on and off.

And I would remember clearly - both of these parties - they are not Arabs - The Arabs are south of there and fuming mad - They will never let non Arabs take over so much oil - never.

I don't believe Solomon could solve this riddle.

It is amazing to me this didn't actually blow up yet.

Joe

[leftchick]

16. I just read some crazy shit about Israel taking care of Syria while the US is busy

with Iran. :scared:

<snip>

According to Baer, the Bush regime has given no consideration to whether Iran's response to a US attack might be different than to welcome it as liberation. What if Iran really were to arm the Iraqi resistance and/or to sink our aircraft carriers? How can any government, even one as incompetent, delusional and unaccountable as the Bush regime, initiate war without any thought to the consequences?

The Bush regime's planned war against Iran casts light on the large increase in military armaments that the US is supplying to Israel. With Iraq in chaos and civil war, an attack on Iran leaves as opposition to Israel only Syria and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel cannot finish off the Palestinians until Hezbollah is destroyed. An Israeli attack on Syria while the US attacks Iran would leave Hezbollah without supplies in the face of a new Israeli attack.

The agenda unfolding before our eyes may be the neoconservative/Israeli/Cheney plan to rid the Middle East of any check to Israeli territorial expansion.

http://www.just-international.org/article.cfm?newsid=20002477

[Selatius]

18. They don't think about tomorrow. They think about today. I use Iraq as Exhibit A

Let someone else deal with the fallout with Iran if war starts. Let the Democrats jump on the grenade, they say, and if a Democrat gets elected, a Democrat will be the one who jumps on the grenade.

[Joe for Clark]

19. Oh - I think you got it right Leftchick -

I am not real happy with Isreal - or some of their spokesman - right now.

The good thing is - our guys hands are tied but for a provocation. Some kind of "Gulf of Tonkin" kind of incident - Ijust so do not trust Isreal in all of this - They have their own agenda - it is understandable - and I basically like Isreal - they just better work with us here.

And I understand - there can be a provocation - on a whole nother level.

Isreal better stay the hell away from this - totally. Like they did with his father.

Joe

[alfredo]

26. Many Arabs don't differentiate between the US and Israel. If the US

attacks, they "know" it is at Israel's request.

[Joe for Clark]

14. You know we are not going to initiate anything -

We will just sucker punch somebody we lure into it.

That is all they have to do.

Hell, they don't even have to sucker punch the right party now.

They will blame it on whoever they want.

It is at least a five way cluster fuck right now - once the first blow is landed - nobody is going to bother to figure any of this out.

It is so dangerous right now - too many guns pointed at each other - just a matter of time.

Joe

[Disturbed]

20. I have not been concerned much about an attack on Iran

for a long time because I could not believe that the Busholini Regime is actually insane. Now, I am worried.

[Joe for Clark]

23. You should be concerned -

I am -

The day they could justify any attack as "in response to" -

Be concerned. I think they are insane - and I think the Iranian government is purely stupid.

It is a bad combination.

Joe

[pansypoo53219]

21. but but but

how much will gas be?

[Disturbed]

22. I am guessing around $10 per Gallon.

How much would milk & other food sources climb up to?

[sarcasmo]

24. Every thing Iran has as far as firepower is going to be directed right at

Israel. If our Idiot Dictator does bomb Iran, we are all in peril. Don't think Russia and China won't attack the United States. We have to much in the Middle East Theater to defend our Country. IMHO, This will end the United States warmongering if the Idiot Dictator attacks Iran.

[alfredo]

25. Jesus doesn't return, Fox blames it on Clinton.

[Joe for Clark]

27. Oh - Jesus may return - on another network -

but Fox will do the same. Just as you say.

Funny post - sad - but probably true.

Joe

[alfredo]

30. He's signed an exclusive with Spike TV.

http://www.ifilm.com/

[Joe for Clark]

32. That is good.

[alfredo]

34. Even Messiah's like video's of kittens puking and women with

big modified sweat glands bulging out of low cut blouses.

[Megahurtz]

28. Whatever Happens If "We"

(and I do NOT consider myself part of "we")
attack Iran it certainly won't be pretty. I think all mayhem would break loose. I think it would be the stupidest, stupidest, stupidest :dunce: (did I say that enough times?) thing for the U.S. to do.
I think it would all backfire on BushInc..

I totally resent being dragged into this, as others most certainly do as well,
just because I was fucking born here!:mad: I want no part of this heinous killing
of people (and outright stealing their resources) that are doing no more than
minding their own business!

[Yukari Yakumo]

29. Post attack retaliation

Nightmare Scenario v1.0--

Stage 1:
Iranian forces from central and northern Iran invade and capture Kirkuk.
Iranian forces from southern Iran invade and capture Basra.
Turkish forces invade and take Mosul.
Syrian forces invade and take Ar Rutbah, cutting Iraq off from Jordan.

Stage 2:
Northern Iranian forces drive southward taking Tikrit and lay siege to Baghdad.
Southern Iranian forces move northwest to take Karbala.
Syrian forces move southeast to cut off the last escape route the US forces would have.

[The Inquisitive]

31. My scenario

Day 1: US air strikes strategic targets

Day 2: ???

Day 3: ???

Day 4: US wins Chili cook off, but Iran beats US in competitive eating + hugs.

[Disturbed]

35. That is real amusing. I guess an attack On Iran is something

to joke around with. The concept of it's better to laugh than to cry involved with that?