Obama’s General Election Math – Friday, May 2

[phrigndumass]

Obama’s General Election Math – Friday, May 2

Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 264
McCain – 263
Ties – 11
Source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May02.html

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,131,779 (45.9%)
McCain – 56,142,936 (44.3%)
Undecided/Other – 12,446,284 (9.8%)

Strength of Projection – 32.5%








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Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 104 (19.3%)
McCain – 101 (18.8%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 247 (45.9%)
McCain – 177 (32.9%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 361 (67.1%)
McCain – 177 (32.9%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 247 (45.9%)
McCain – 291 (54.1%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 437 (81.2%)
McCain – 101 (18.8%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 104 (19.3%)
McCain – 434 (80.7%)

*********************************************************************

Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 45.3%
2004 Kerry – 46.5%
2000 Gore – 46.1%
1996 Clinton – 48.0%
1992 Clinton – 42.1%

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Link to spreadsheet: http://www.box.net/shared/5waltda0wg

:dunce:

[Radio_Lady]

1. Is there any reason you didn't post this in the GD or GD : P forums?

I had to hunt for it this afternoon!

Cordially,

Radio Lady Ellen

[phrigndumass]

2. Hi Ellen ...

It would have gotten slimed in GDP for assuming Obama is our nominee (although he is). Posters in GD don't want to hear the words Obama or Clinton until it's all officially decided.

:hi:

[Radio_Lady]

4. I think you're right. Well, keep posting and I'll find you...

Maybe things will improve on this site.

Meanwhile, I'm doing other things.

Peace, love and happiness,

RL in OR

[Demeter]

3. I had to hunt for you too, Especially for the Unique Way You Spell the Handle

but it was worth the search! I would think assuming Obama is the candidate is a safe bet--despite the last minute attempts to knock him down by everybody else in the world.

These are encouraging data for so early in the election cycle. I'm especially enheartened by how well Obama handles the slime thrown at him. But honestly, my heart's in my mouth until after the Electoral College and the Inauguration. I just hope the process gets that far. The odds on that are not as encouraging, not with these fascists still in positions of power and commanding some respect by the lazy-minded. Once he is official, the armed forces will be at his back (except for the rogues, who will swiftly be retired or court-martialed, if there are any brains in the campaign/transition staff.

Perilous times, and moreso because so few people are willing to acknowledge the peril. Keep on posting!

[phrigndumass]

6. Thanks, Demeter! The data today is even more encouraging ...

... More Obama strong EV's and less McCain strong EV's.

:hi:

[grantcart]

5. I suggest you post a link in the Obama daily thread in GDP

so people can find it

[phrigndumass]

7. Very good idea

:dunce:

[marlakay]

8. check current polls Obama up big against mccain nt

[phrigndumass]

9. True! Some of McCain's "strong" states have gone "weak" on him since the OP

... and some of Obama's weak states have gone strong on him as well.

The strongs today are now:
Obama - 135 (25.1%)
McCain - 97 (18.0%)

:7