Invade Iran? Compromise With Iran? How Will It End?

[Roland99]

http://www.conjur.com/blog/2006/03/06/invade-iran-compromise-with-iran-how-will-it-end/



El Baradei seems to think diplomatic solutions to Iran’s nuclear program is possible.

The head of the U.N. atomic watchdog agency said Monday a deal on Iran’s suspect nuclear program could be only a few days away, making U.N. Security Council action unneeded.

International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei did not elaborate. But his optimism was believed to be linked to a confidential Russian proposal to allow Iran to enrich some uranium domestically, diplomats said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to divulge details of the plan.

“I am still very much hopeful that in the next week, an agreement could be reached,” ElBaradei told reporters, without elaborating.

But wait, what’s this? Doubt on the horizon?

However, the plan - which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov planned to discuss with officials in Washington - was expected to meet strong U.S. resistance over fears it could be misused to make nuclear weapons.

Surely the US won’t stand in the way of diplomatic solutions.


U.S. Dismisses Talk of Compromise on Iran
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_iran;_ylt=At40Brr86rhVs3CLxeMzuh6s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--


Ooops.

Well, surely the US will pull back on the aggressive rhetoric about invading or attacking Iran in the hopes that a compromise could emerge.


US envoy hints at strike to stop Iran
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1724473,00.html


Oh well.

So, who’s ready for more deficit spending invasions?!

[Canuckistanian]

1. Compromise? LOL, good one...

Oh, you're serious...

Look, until Iran's leaders (notice I didn't say citizens) give up this policy of inflaming Israel and tie their oil bourse currency to the dollar intead of the euro... there will be a conflict.

And, with these criminals in charge, you KNOW what "conflict" means...

[Sawkrates]

2. There's not much else we can do...

Frankly the army is in no shape to launch an invsion, and after what the Israelis did to Iraq's nuclear reactor the Iranians are apparently taking care to ensure that their program can't be eliminated by air strikes.

Basically we can grin and bear it.

[Canuckistanian]

3. Yup.

Hard to believe that the government of your own country is planning an attack on another sovereign country without your consent or control.

But just another day for these criminals in office...

[DemInDistress]

4. Only 20 days until Iran opens the Oil Bourse and goodbye

US Dollar hello fake war...( another lie based war)

[Yupster]

5. Why would Iran compromise?

What's in it for them?

They can make their bombs and then get much better deals than they can get without their bombs.

The better question is why did the Germans, French and Russians think they could ever get the Iranians to compromise? It didn't make any sense for the Iranians.

[Spider Jerusalem]

6. Possible unintended consequences: oil at $100+/barrel.

All of this sabre rattling and posturing has included talk of an embargo on oil exports either as a measure by Iran in response to UN-imposed sanctions, or as a potential part of punitive economic sanctions imposed on Iran. Iran produces four million barrels of oil a day; the ratio of global production to demand is razor-thin (production: 84M bbl; demand, 82M bbl), and subtracting those four million barrels a day results in a scenario where demand outstrips available supply (a situation which probably can't be remedied by increasing production elsewhere to take up the slack, as the sum of the excess producing capacity in ALL of the petroleum-producing countries isn't enough to make up for the absence of Iranian oil from world markets).

This would probably be enough to cause global economic chaos, and possibly even trigger severe recession/depression with consequences lasting for many years; there's also the grim possibility that it could act as the trigger for more extensive war (not limited to Iran) with the aim of securing access to petroleum resource bases.

Somehow I can't picture this ending well, however it plays out.

[MikeNY]

7. Bottom Line

The US can not afford to invade Iran. We will truly be in over our heads, and it would probably start if not a regional war then a world war.. If that happens, head for the Hill so to speak, and try to get both the Congress and the President impeached for treason. We have no right to attack Iran because they develop weapons systems simply because "we feel it is a threat", when they are a nation thousands of miles away - nonsense. If every nation followed this rulebook, the world would be in chaos.

US constantly threatening Iran looks very bad. The goal here is to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons - but that takes diplomacy. US should not interject itself into the regional politics with threats just because we have Iran landlocked with two occupied nations. Pressure should be put on by our "friends" in the region if anything

If we could elect a President with an IQ over 60 that might help the situation as well. Whose interests are we protecting here?

[0007]

8. Nuclear exchange

[radfringe]

9. probably scenario

with the current political climate turning against bush* I doubt that a blatent invasion of Iran will happen (this year)

However, I do think we will "attack" Iran in this probable scenario:

-- Israel will bomb a "nuke" site in Iran
-- Iran will retailiate
-- scene is now set for the bushies to clamor for military action to "defend" Israel and we "attack"

[Roland99]

10. I'd say that's possible but not quite probable...yet.

They need to ratchet up the rhetoric some more and pass around some satellite photos or something.

[Canuckistanian]

11. Israel would be nuts to attack Iran

And anyways, they tend to attack immediate threats only. I don't think Iran qualifies yet.

Besides, has anyone heard of Israel rattling their sabers yet? Sure, they're pissed at Ahmadinejad, but so far they haven't advocated for bombing yet.