Post-ABC Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Lead Primary Fields

[Herman Munster]

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

On the day that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton officially entered the 2008 presidential sweepstakes, a new Washington Post-ABC News survey shows her with a wide lead over her potential Democratic rivals.

Clinton took 41 percent in a hypothetical primary field against 12 other Democrats, far ahead of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at 17 percent, former Sen. John Edwards (N.C) at 11 percent and former Vice President Al Gore at 10 percent. The party's 2004 nominee -- Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) -- received 8 percent support. No other candidate crested three percent.

Those numbers are virtually unchanged from a Post-ABC survey in December that showed CLinton at 39 percent, Obama at 17 percent and Edwards at 12 percent.

"This poll confirms Hillary Clinton's early frontrunner status among likely contenders for the Democratic nomination," said Post polling director Jon Cohen. "It also indicates how little the intense media speculation and intrigue about Barack Obama's candidacy over the past month has increased his standing among Democrats nationally."

On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani held a 34 percent to 27 percent lead over Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), with no other potential candidate registering in double digits. Former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) took nine percent each. Sen. Sam Brownback, who formally entered the race today, stood at one percent in the poll.

The poll was in the field from Jan. 16-19. It tested 561 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 344 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The Democratic numbers have a four percent margin of error; the Republican side has a 5 percent margin of error.

[illinoisprogressive]

1. I think it shows she isn't moving and may have peaked.

[Bucky]

2. 41% is a pretty damn good peak.

I hate spin. That she is the favorite to win the nomination is a rock solid fact. It can't be spun and it can't be gamed. Deal with it.

I will take consolation that Democrats just about never nominate the presumed front runner in an open primary. They've only done it twice in my life time. I don't think we'll do it this time around. Clinton has a way of sticking her foot in it. It'll be fun to watch the mighty fall.

The people to watch in this race are Gore (I think he's still looking for a doorway in) and Edwards with his otherwordly mojo. Neither is superstrong on grassroots, however. I suspect both Clinton and Obama will fade quick. Expectations are too high for them. One rootsy person could also break out of the pack. Personally I'm hoping it'll be Clark. The only certainty is that it will not be Dodd.

[Herman Munster]

3. there has never been an open primary like this

Never has a woman been in such strong a position.

Never has a first lady run for president.

In many respects, this isn't an "open" primary at all. Hillary is running as a quasi-incumbent. She was after all co-president for 8 years.

I think you have to throw all the conventional wisdom out the window.

[UCLA Dem]

5. Peaked? Please. This thing's just getting started!

[David Dunham]

4. Obama has peaked and is beginning to fall back