Competitive Congressional Election List (updated)

[longship]

I have reformatted and updated my competitive Congressional Election list.
I have added finanacials and made the list easier to read.

The following is a list of Dem candidates with the best chances to win in November.

If notes indicate a primary, the Dem candidate is the front money raiser.
See The Green Papers for details.

The format of the entries is:
ST-district D-DemName / R-RepName - Notes
$ DemMoney / RepMoney = xx%
WebLink


*** US Senate ***
Current Senate is 55 R / 44 D / 1 I
Democrats need six (6) seats for a majority.
Top six are PA, MT, OH, MO, RI, TN (in that order).
In order by state

• AZ D-Jim Pederson / R-John Kyl
  $ 3,961,169 / 7,642,647 = 52%
  http://www.pederson2006.com/
  
• CT D-Ned Lamont / ?-Joe Lieberman
  $ 776,880 / 5,906,206 = 13%
  http://www.nedlamont.com/
  
• MO D-Claire McCaskill / R-Jim Talent
  $ 2,869,343 / 7,633,623 = 38%
  http://www.claireonline.com/
  
• MT D-John Tester / R-Conrad Burns
  $ 849,679 / 4,932,679 = 17%
  http://www.testerforsenate.com/
  
• NV D-John William "Jack" Carter / R-John Ensign - Jack is Pres Jimmy's son
  $ 645,056 / 3,457,728 = 19%
  http://www.carterfornevada.com/
  
• OH D-Sherrod Brown / R-Mike Dewine
  $ 2,117,143 / 5,636,524 = 38%
  http://www.sherrodbrown.com/
  
• PA D-Robert P. "Bob" Casey / R-Rick Santorum
  $ 8,429,141 / 14,498,659 = 58%
  http://www.bobcaseyforpa.com/
  
• RI D-Sheldon Whitehouse, II / R-Lincoln Chafee - Sept 12 primary
  $ 2,712,820 / 1,893,228 = 143% :-)
  http://www.whitehouseforsenate.com/
  
• TN D-Harold E. Ford, Jr / R-Robert Corker - Open seat (R-Bill Frist) Aug 3 primary
  $ 4,501,170 / 3,483,200 = 129% :-)
  http://www.haroldfordjr.com/
  
• VA D-James H. "Jim" Webb, Jr / R-George Allen
  $ 547,956 / 9,591,989 = 6% :-(
  http://www.webbforsenate.com/
  

*** US House of Representatives ***
Current House is 231 R / 201 D / 1 I / 2 vacant
Democrats need to pick up 16 seats for majority (accounting for VT-1).
Vacant seats: NJ-13 (Robert Menendez), TX-22 (Tom DeLay)

• The following need lots of help (in order by state):
  
  • CA-11 D-Jerry McNerney / R-Richard Pombo
    $ 234,637 / 1,694,937 = 14%
    http://www.jerrymcnerney.org/
    
  • CA-50 D-Francine Busby / R-Brian Bilbray - Jun 6 special election (R-Duke Cunningham)
    $ 2,250,582 / 1,083,091 = 208% :-)
    http://www.francinebusby2006.org/
    
  • CT-4 D-Dianne Goss Farrell / R-Christopher Shays
    $ 1,199,635 / 1,788,734 = 67%
    http://www.farrellforcongress.com/
    
  • CT-5 D-Christopher Scott "Chris" Murphy / R-Nancy Johnson
    $ 785,054 / 1,802,692 = 44%
    http://www.murphyforcongress.org/
    
  • FL-22 D-Ron Klein / R-Clay Shaw
    $ 1,859,351 / 1,920,137 = 96% :-)
    http://www.ronklein2006.com/
    
  • IL-6 D-L. Tammy Duckworth / (R)-Peter Roskam - Open seat (R-Henry Hyde)
    $ 1,039,696 / 1,450,034 = 72%
    http://www.duckworthforcongress.com/
    
  • NH-2 D-Paul W. Hodes / R-Charles Bass
    $ 329,443 / 353,610 = 93% :-)
    http://www.hodesforcongress.com/
    
  • NM-1 D-Patricia A. "Patsy" Madrid / R-Heather Wilson
    $ 1,327,678 / 2,323,018 = 57%
    http://www.madridforcongress.com/
    
  • NY-19 D-Judith A. "Judy" Aydelott / R-Sue Kelly - Sept 12 primary
    $ 465,852 / 1,037,492 = 45%
    http://www.judy4congress.com
    
  • NY-20 D-Kristen E. Gillibrand / R-John Sweeney - Sept 12 primary
    $ 716,479 / 1,180,874 = 61%
    http://www.gillibrand2006.com/
    
  • NY-24 D-Michael Angelo "Mike" Arcuri / R-Ray Meier - Open seat (R-Sherwood Boehlert) Sept 12 primary
    $ 196,657 / 176,090 = 111% :-)
    http://www.arcuriforcongress.com/
    
  • NY-29 D-Eric Massa / R-Randy Kuhl
    $ 311,115 / 708,542 = 44%
    http://www.massaforcongress.com/
    
  • NC-8 D-Larry Kissell / R-Robin Hayes
    $ 94,322 / 1,250,471 = 8% :-(
    http://www.larrykissell.com/
    
  • NC-11 D-Joseph Heath "Heath" Shuler / R-Charles Taylor
    $ 779,653 / 811,074 = 96% :-)
    http://www.heathshuler.com/
    
  • OH-1 D-John J. Cranley, IV / R-Steve Chabot
    $ 535,234 / 866,075 = 62%
    http://www.johncranley.com/
    
  • OH-18 D-Zachary T. "Zach" Space / R-Robert Ney
    $ 144,850 / 1,192,653 = 12%
    http://www.zackspace.org/
    
  • PA-7 D-Joseph A. "Joe" Sestak, Jr / R-Curt Weldon
    $ 503,757 / 907,008 = 56%
    http://www.sestakforcongress.com/
    
  • TX-21 D-John Kenneth Courage / R-Lamar Smith
    $ 113,791 / 661,385 = 17%
    http://www.courageforcongress.org/
    
  • TX-22 D-Nicholas V. "Nick" Lampson / R-?????? - vacant seat (R-Tom Delay)
    $ 2,299,555 / ?????? = ??% :-)
    http://www.lampson.com/
    
  • WA-8 D-Darcy Burner / R-Dave Reichert
    $ 539,685 / 1,417,028 = 38%
    http://www.darcyburner.com/
    
  • WI-8 D-Steven Leslie "Steve" Kagen / R-John Gard - Open seat (R-Mark Green) Sept 12 primary
    $ 1,552,145 / 1,067,491 = 146% :-)
    http://www.stevekagen.org/
    
  
  
• Following have good chances:
  
  • AZ-8 D-Gabrielle "Gabby" Giffords / R-Steve Huffman Jr - Open seat (R-Jim Kolbe) Sept 12 primary
    $ 570,230 / 239,659 = 238% :-)
    http://www.gabriellegiffords.com/
    
  • CT-2 D-Joseph D. "Joe" Courtney / R-Rob Simmons
    $ 852,676 / 1,380,711 = 62%
    http://www.joecourtney.com/
    
  • IN-9 D-Baron P. Hill / R-Mike Sodrel
    $ 795,773 / 1,280,442 = 62%
    http://www.bringbackbaron.com/
    
  • KY-4 D-Kenneth Ray "Ken" Lucas / R-Geoff Davis
    $ 412,283 / 1,678,748 = 25%
    http://www.weneedkenlucas.com/
    
  • MN-6 D-Patty Wetterling / R-Michele Bachmann - Open seat (R-Mark Kennedy)
    $ 244,986 / 396,347 = 62%
    http://www.pattywetterling.com/
    
  • PA-6 D-Lois Murphy / R-Jim Gerlach
    $ 1,418,998 / 1,796,862 = 79%
    http://www.loismurphy.org/
    
  
  
• Fairly certain wins:
  
  • CO-7 D-Edwin "Ed" Perlmutter / R-Rick O'Donnell - Open seat (R-Bob Beauprez) Aug 8 primary
    $ 706,726 / 946,073 = 75%
    http://www.perlmutter2006.com/
    
  • IA-1 D-Bruce L. Braley / Mike Whalen - Open seat (R-Jim Nussle)
    $ 571,394 / 627,234 = 91% :-)
    http://www.brucebraley.com/
    
  • IN-8 D-Brad Ellsworth / R-John Hostettler
    $ 681,439 / 118,658 = 572% :-)
    http://www.ellsworthforcongress.com/
    
  
  
• Incumbent Democrat in trouble
  
  
  
  • IL-8 D-Melissa Luberich Bean / R-David McSweeney
    $ 2,316,766 / 2,627,086 = 88%
    http://www.melissabean.com/
    

[Supersedeas]

1. thank you thank you - everyone with relatives/friends/classmates in these

competitive states needs to make a phonecall and do some 'catching up'

[FtWayneBlue]

2. I wonder where the Democratic challenger in my district,

Dr. Tom Hayhurst, stands in relation to the 12 yr.incumbent,
Mark Souder, who was voted in touting wanting to initiate term limits on career politicians?

[longship]

3. That would be IN-3.

I'll look into this race.

To your knowledge (polls, etc.) is this a competitive race?

Note: Here's the entry as it would appear, but I'm not certain this qualifies as a competitive race. However, he is good at raising money. Maybe on that basis alone it belongs on the list. I'll look into polls and previous election results for this district.

• IN-3 D-Thomas Eldon Hayhurst / R-Mike Souder
  $ 144,275 / 106,834 = 134% :-)
  http:://www.tomhayhurstforcongress.com/
  

[FtWayneBlue]

4. All I know is that Tom is well liked and respected for his work

on the city council, as a local physician, on the Matt. 25 clinic and for his activism to keep the Ft. Wayne VA hospital open.

I think people are tired of Souder, but he does have a record of only raising as much money as he thinks he will need to win, and is very capable at doing that.

[longship]

5. Some polling results.

There are almost no polls for House races and precious few for Senate that I can find. Here are some:

State-district - Date - Poll - Results

NJ Senate - 23 Jun - Rutgers/Eagleton - D-Menendez 42% / R-Kean 38%
RI Senate - 22 Jun - Rhode Island College - D-Whitehouse 40% / R-Chafee 43%
PA Senate - 21 Jun - Quinnipiac - D-Casey 52% / R-Santorum 34%
NJ Senate - 21 Jun - Strategic Vision - D-Menendez 38% / R-Kean 36%
CT Senate - 8 Jun - Quinnipiac - D-Lamont 40% / ?-Lieberman 55%

OH Senate - 1 May - Mason-Dixon - D-Brown 36% / R-DeWine 47%
OH Senate - 24 Apr - Rasmussen - D-Brown 41% / R-DeWine 43%

AZ-5 - 9 May - SurveyUSA - D-Mitchell 45% / R-Hayworth 50%

How about OH Governor polls?

OH Governor - 1 May - Mason-Dixon - D-Strickland 47% / R-Blackwell 37%
OH Governor - 24 Apr - Rasmussen - D-Strickland 52% / R-Blackwell 35%

[longship]

6. New Competitive race == AZ-5 Hayworth vulnerable

I am adding the following race to the list:

Democratic State Senator Harry Mitchell is fighting the fight for AZ-5 against mealy-mouthed J.D. Hayworth.

• AZ-5 D-Harold E. "Harry" Mitchell / R-J.D. Hayworth
  $ 213,209 / 827,557 = 26%
  http://www.harrymitchellforcongress.com/
  

[longship]

7. Another Senate poll result - VA

VA Senate - 22 Jun - WSJ/Zogby - D-Jim Hunt 43.5% / R-George Allen 48.8% +/- 3.3%

This is within the error bars, as indicated at:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2710643&mesg_id=2710643

There is a third person on the ballot, Gail Parker, who is running a conservative Green. This may help Webb, or hurt him. She has no money. http://www.gailparker.us/

[ralps]

8. Hi longship, Thanks for doing this. Do you have any info on the Brian

Kennedy/ Sensenbrenner race? Wi District 5. Brian's website- http://bk2006.org/
:hi: :loveya: :hug: :pals: :woohoo:

[upi402]

9. wonderful

i gave*, lets all give!

* i'll never give to a politician that voted for NAFTA. no corporatists and no DINO's. what's the point? they're Repugs after all!