MY Conn. Senate Race analysis as a CT resident

[NewJeffCT]

Other CT residents feel free to weigh in and tell me I'm an idiot. But, I'm a lifelong CT resident of (gasp) almost 40 years now. But, here is my take:

As of right now, if Lieberman loses the primary – which seems almost a given now – and it is a three way race between Lieberman, Lamont and Republican Alan Schlesinger, we would have no worry about the seat falling into "Republican" hands. Most Republicans will vote Lieberman for fear of Lamont winning and being too progressive for their tastes. Schlesinger will struggle to get 20% of the vote. Lamont and Lieberman would split the remaing 80%.

That said, it would also be an uphill battle for Lamont because of the crossover vote for Lieberman. Ned will get a large majority of Democrats because of Lieberman's betrayal, but the Republican vote will help Lieberman make up some of that difference. (Dems to have a big edge in registration here, but maybe fellow DUer Larkspur can weigh in on that with more knowledge/data than me)

The battle will be for the independents in the middle.

If the media spin goes against Joe and he is portrayed as a sore loser/traitor of a Democrat (and things continue to get worse in Iraq) then, Lamont could ride the primary win momentum to victory. In fact, I think he would have a good chance.

If the media spins it as Joe being a wily politician fighting against us radical leftist MoveOn/Michael Moore types, then it will be difficult to win over the independents for Lamont.

My big fear is that Alan Schlesinger will mysteriously drop out of the race for “health reasons” and Republicans will draft popular moderate Chris Shays to take his place (Shays is currently in a tough battle for re-election against Diane Farrell, and the GOP might sacrifice a House seat to take a stab at a Senate pick-up) or a conservative in moderate clothing in Nancy Johnson (also in a struggle for re-election, but maybe not quite as dire as Shays)

In that case, it will be a three-way battle and a Shays could eke out a win with 35-37% of the vote and Lieberman/Lamont getting 30-33% each.

That said, it is all up to the media spin, and I will not be able to catch Colin McEnroe & Bruce Stevens at 3:00pm on WTIC AM 1080 for their comments (both are progressive and anti-Lieberman)

[acmavm]

1. Old Joe's really thrown a wrench into your state's election all right.

[hlthe2b]

2. thanks for your informed viewpoint....

I hope you will frequently update us.

[eleny]

3. Joe will lose if he's an Indie - so what's his damned point?

[NewJeffCT]

6. his approval outside the Democratic party

is higher than it is within the party...

I used to work with Republicans that loved Lieberman.

When Lieberman originally ran for Senate in 1988, it was against liberal Republican Lowell Weicker. Lieberman ran to Weicker's right, and got votes from the far right William F. Buckley types that hated Weicker for his liberalism.

[connecticut yankee]

10. Not only did they vote,

but the "far right William F. Buckley types" contributed heavily to Lieberman's campaign in 1988.

Ever hear of "BUCKPAC?"

And Buckley calls Joe his "favorite Democrat." Hmmmm, just like W.

[Norquist Nemesis]

16. Insanity Hannity endorsed him too! n/t

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. Heve their been any polls testing Lieberman as an independent?

:shrug:

[NewJeffCT]

9. Not in the past few weeks

About a month ago, a poll had Lieberman getting like 57% in a 3 way race, with Lamont & Schlesinger way way behind. But, that was right before Joe started waffling on running as an independent.

[skipos]

17. Rasmussen had Joe pulling 44% as an independent

but that was well before Joe announced he didn't care about the votes of CT Dems. His numbers are only going down from here. I now think he is going to lose the primary, and THAT will make his indy numbers go down as well.

The funny thing is, I think if Joe said he would honor the choice of CT Dems in the primary, like Lamont has, Joe would have won.

[JerseygirlCT]

14. I don't think so

I think he's in a good position to win -- for the reasons Jeff outlined. CT voters have no problem voting for independents.

Might be fun to find any info on Lieberman's take on Weicker as an "I" back when though...

[longship]

4. Wouldn't Shays likely pull more votes from Lieberman?

Might a Shays candidacy help Lamont? If Lamont gains healthy Dem support, Shays would split the Repugs and the independants with Lieberman.

Or am I full of crap here?

[NewJeffCT]

8. That is possible, too

But - and it's a big but - CT Republicans are generally fairly moderate, and many would likely not have a problem voting for Shays.

[wryter2000]

5. K&R

Thanks for the analysis. A very interesting situation to be sure.

[RagAss]

11. I remember him staying in the senate race when he was running for VP

......is this all the guy knows how to do?....doesn't he have a family business to fall back on???....Senator is all he'll ever be. His campaign for president was a fucking joke!...My opinion is Connecticut needs a real Dem.

[NewJeffCT]

12. Yes, we do

I was up in the air about supporting him due to my reasoning about Shays/Johnson coming into the race... however, since he can't abide by the wishes of Democrats, I saw screw him.

[MeDeMax]

13. Well said ! Joe always plays it "safe" ...

I was shocked that he continued his senate run after getting on the ticket in 2000,
he wasn't showing a whole lot of confidence in Gore's bid.

Al was gracious in saying it was sen. lieberman's decision to continue his sen. run.

His lame candidacy in 2004 with comments like "I would do exactly what prez ... did"
and blah blah blah & of course blah blah blah

"I am the only candidate with a real chance to beat bush"

"I am even supported by faux news"

ok, I made up that last one, but it is true, they were cheering him on.

[JerseygirlCT]

15. I think that's about the size of it. nt