My amateur analysis of the goals of the invasion of Iraq

[GliderGuider]

The way I see it at the moment, the invasion can be viewed as having five interlocking objectives:

1. To keep Iraq from moving all oil sales to Euros, as they did with their oil-to-food account at BNP bank. This move would have been seen as a powerful signal to other producers, as we're seeing anyway today with Iran, Venezuela and Russia making the same noises.

2. To keep oil prices high by reducing global swing production capacity. Taking Iraq out of the equation meant that Saudi Arabia's role as a swing producer was negated, thereby bringing global supply and demand into tighter balance and ensuring long-term price escalation.

3. To establish American control over Iraqi oil production, so that when it came back on line later it would be at a time and in a manner that benefitted America's geopolitical interests. It would give the US a means to reward friends and punish enemies by granting or withholding oil contracts. It goes without saying that this would require a compliant regime in Baghdad.

4. To administer a public "punishment beating" that would serve as a warning to hostile regional players.

5. To give the US a power base within the region, and enable it to project military force more effectively.

Given the outcome of the invasion, only goal number 2 has been fully achieved.

Goal #1 has not been met - the switch to euros which threatens the dollar's role as global reserve currency is still under way.

Goal #3 won't be achieved unless a miracle happens and the insurgency is vanquished.

Goal #4 has likewise been rendered essentially moot by the insurgency. The US is now obviously in no position to project anything but air power within the region. While that is still significant, I think it is viewed by the regional players like Iran as less threatening in the long run, unless the US decides to go nuclear.

Goal #5 has been partially met through the construction of those 14 bases, but is still subject to the same contraints as goal #4.

So in the final analysis, the insurgency has stymied America's geopolitical aims in the region, leaving high oil prices as the only fully positive outcome of the adventure.

[donco6]

1. The other thing about No. 4 and the air power -

Air power is great, but it's also sloppy. Even if this current crop of commanders knew what they were doing (which is becoming obvious that they do not), all you end up doing is killing a bunch of innocent people, creating yet more "insurgents", and creating great TV shots for Al Jazeera. Furthermore, even the hardcore war supporters in the US have no stomach for the My Lais and Hadithas.

The Bushists started with a stupid, flawed agenda and managed to totally fuck that up as well. They look like one of those bumbling gangs of bad guys on an old Batman show.

[GliderGuider]

2. I forgot one driver

I left out the revolutionary free-market utopianism of the invasion's political proponents (aka PNAC). They heldan honest but utterly erroneous belief that once the rose petals had settled Iraq would actually become a free-market beacon to the region. This philosophy carried the seeds of its own destruction though, as it opened up Iraq to to kind of corporate looting that gave the insurgency its first rallying cry.

[Virginia Dare]

3. I would add one more...

so the defense industry could cash in. I believe this goal has been achieved.