Will the jobs ever come back?

[conflictgirl]

Maybe it's just because my husband has been unemployed for four months and counting, or because I live in an area where the unemployment rate is much higher than the national average, but I am starting to wonder if the current economy is going to be a temporary situation. I returned to college but I'm starting to feel nervous that I might be taking on debt for which I won't see a financial payoff at the end.

Between outsourcing, rising oil prices and/or Peak Oil concerns and the enormous growth of temp, part-time or contract jobs, I am starting to think that it would take a lot to reverse this. I don't even feel all that confident that a Democratic president and Congress could change this.

Do you think it will get better, and if so, how? What do you think the future economy (especially of the US and Canada) is going to look like?

[robbibaba]

1. Oh they built the ship Titanic to sail the ocean blue....

I think we're on the verge of a horrific great depression and most of the "skills" most Americans now have will be entirely useless. Ditch college and study permaculture. Learn how to make biodiesel. Learn some useful skill. That's my best guess.
As a nation we're going to have to start manufacturing again, on small scale, regionally and locally, as the cheap petroleum driven supply lines are lost forever. Maybe we should start hording currently cheap Chinese made necessities that will all too soon be very expensive.

[conflictgirl]

11. I think you're right

And in my "spare time" :rofl: I have been learning many of those skills. I've learned how to knit, sew, make soap (even without lye, doing it from wood ashes) and candles, use herbal medicine, identify native plants and garden. I've even learned canning, pickling and jam-making. We have a pretty sizable lot and have turned half of our backyard into garden space.

I don't fool myself into thinking that the skills I have will enable me to get through a depression comfortably, but I look around at other people my age (I'm 32) and I know that I have a lot of skills that they don't have and don't think they'll ever need. I know otherwise. I totally agree with you that a depression is coming, and I will likely see it in my lifetime. And if by some chance it doesn't happen in my lifetime, I am teaching my children these skills as well.

I find it way scary that so few people have any idea how to do these basic things. I don't want to be that vulnerable.

[cap]

2. here 's some company

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1318422&mesg_id=1318422

[Dr.Phool]

3. You're in Michigan, and I don't see much hope for improvement.

I worked for over 30 years in the Cleveland area, and as with Michigan, most down times in the economy were cyclical. Not anymore.

Jobs now, are gone permanently. I used to have streaks back in the '70s and '80s, where I would work steady for 5-6 years, then get laid off for 6 months to a year. One time I was laid off for over 2 years, but always got called back. Not anymore.

The auto industry that supported the state is now moving overseas. That means that all the peripheral businesses that supported the auto industry, are also gone. And anything that supported those peripheral businesses, right down to Wal-Mart.

[PassingFair]

4. How did I know you are in Michigan before looking at your profile?

I think "things" are generally lousy in all states, but
there is no denying that Michigan is particularly dismal.

I don't think that the automotive jobs will EVER come back
at any comparable level, but remember, we DO have a high
percentage of the earth's fresh water surrounding us, so
I'M NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

The virtual shut down of local auto jobs has also caused
a rippled effect in our local advertising industry.

I think many Americans will be looking for (and taking)
work overseas.

[conflictgirl]

15. Of course I'm in Michigan!

That makes me laugh. Not only am I in Michigan, but I'm in one of the metro areas with the worst unemployment rates in a state that itself has one of the worst unemployment rates. Good ol' Michigan.

I don't believe that the "official" unemployment stats are right at all, but I do know that Michigan's economy suuuuuuuuucks. And if DeVos gets in as governor I think it will only get worse.

I don't think the manufacturing jobs will ever come back either, and so much of Michigan's economy is based on that. I don't know how the state as a whole will adapt.

[snot]

5. The big picture as I see it

So long as the USA is richer than most of the rest of the world in everything except cheap labor, we will continue to buy or "import" cheap labor from other countries.

Once wages in other countries rise to match ours, this trend will cease.

The silver lining is that sooner or later, wages and work conditions in poorer countries should tend to rise. But I realize that's small comfort to many of us here.

You can erect artificial barriers to try to stop the flow, but as the I Ching indicates, dammed up water (or anything else) will always tend to overflow or find ways to leak, until the levels inside and out are equal.

There are lots of things that could and should be done to try to ease the shocks and pain of this transition, but I personally believe the process is somewhat inevitable.

[Dr.Phool]

7. So, in another 150 years, I can expect to get a decent paying job?

[pitohui]

13. high five dr phool

you said it, i believe it, that settles it :-)

[neoblues]

18. Perhaps only 60 to 100 years... nt.

[sutz12]

28. Or until our wages fall to match theirs.

BushCo seems well on the way to turning us into the largest 3rd world country on the planet.

At the current rate, we'll be getting aid from Europe in ten years.

[Coyote_Bandit]

6. Hmmmmmmm

I was laid-off over three and a half years ago and have not yet been able to find permanent work since then. I am a well educated 40-something single professional female who lives in a red state. I hold two professional licenses and have three graduate degrees the most recent of which was earned in 2001.

Do not confuse skills, credentials, and higher education. You need skills to do almost any job. You need credentials to do some jobs. Higher education is a means to earn credentials. Higher education may also be an avenue to become educated in the broad liberal meaning of the word but it is not indispensable to the process. Being educated is not necessarily related to earning ability.

One of the greatest frauds perpetrated on the American public is that more and better education will increase career opportunities and earning capacity. Pursuing formal education keeps a significant number of people out of the workforce for four years or so and a large number of them emerge from that process with significant debt. Whose interest does that serve?

If I were 18 again (God, don't I wish...) I would forego college and learn a trade. Multiple trade skills actually. If you have trade skills you are less dependent upon traditional forms of employment.

I do not see employment security and prospects improving in the foreseeable future. There is no sense of national community and mutual obligation. There is no political will to protect American workers. And labor lacks the power to force reforms.

Our national economic problems are largely unrecognized and undefined. Outsourcing isn't a problem - it is a symptom of a deeper issue. The American system of capitalism lacks commitment to all of its participants. We fail to recognize the importance and the dynamics of interrelationships. We are focused on end results. Money and winning have become more important than loyalty or community.

That said, I do not believe we as individuals are defined or limited by the nation or community in which we live. Individually, we can do well irrespective of the broader economy.

[Dr.Phool]

8. I agree with you 100%

Back in the '60s when I went into the military, it was possible for a high school drop-out to get a good, union job, and make more money than a college professor. This was the foundation of the middle class. Steelworkers, Ironworkers, Autoworkers, Welders all made above average wages, with full healthcare benefits back then. And Pension plans.

Now, they're looked at as greedy parasites, because the companies that promised all these benefits are reneging on the deal.

[pitohui]

12. no one wants an over 40 female

i'm an over 40 female also, and no one wants to hire you because they are convinced you are going to get a hysterectomy on their insurance plan

i have no ideas or suggestions except don't bother to indulge in self blame because YOU are not to blame

[conflictgirl]

14. I've heard similar things about prospects for younger women

I'm not implying that younger women in their early 30s like me face the same employment discrimination because I know we don't, but I've heard human resources managers talk about hiring temps because they don't want to have to pay for maternity benefits.

Self-blame is the hardest part of all this. In this Republican culture people have adopted that Calvinist, pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps, blame the victim mentality. If you're not a success, it must be your own fault. I don't buy into it, but it doesn't mean that I never feel like a loser. This thread is helping me, since I'm having a particularly tough day for some reason.

[pitohui]

20. oh absolutely you are correct

you're really screwed all the way round because if you're younger, it's true, they do assume you want to have a baby on their dime

sheesh can't win for losing

but again self blame is a waste of time, we can't control what is in other people's heads and sadly prejudice is still very very real

[raccoon]

24. Well, if more people go to college, it provides job security for

college faculty and staff. Though more and more of those jobs are part-time, no benefits, no nothing.

"Pursuing formal education keeps a significant number of people out of the workforce for four years or so... Whose interest does that serve?"

[Elwood P Dowd]

9. The problem will not get fixed until we have a depression

and the politicians are scared shitless of the American people killing their sorry asses. Sorry for being so crude, but that's the way it is.

[pitohui]

10. no the jobs won't come back

my husband's job is writing computer programs that take other men's jobs, those jobs will never come back

a factory that used to take dozens of workers now takes a handful of workers and one of his programs, and god help us all, my husband is not the only computer programmer out there

in the end, the computer takes all the jobs of everyone who is not either the absolute top of their field or willing to work for nothing

don't know what to tell you, in my view, this is why we need socialism, because we are working toward a technology in which machines will work and not people

this is what we have aspired to from the dawn of time...but we need to provide for the people who can no longer work because machines do the work and so far society would rather see those people become meth dealers and bank robbers and stick guns in the faces of the rest of us

[raccoon]

26. Agree, the jobs aren't coming back.

In my neck of the woods, we've lost jobs in the textile industry over the last few decades and still are--what few are left.

[leftofthedial]

16. better either enlist or go down to Arizona and help build the fence

fast food and Wal Mart are booming, but even stupid fat people will run out of money eventually

the only growth "industry" is indentured servitude to one of the weathy aristocrats, but they only need a few thousand gardeners and housekeepers . . .

[snot]

17. Hope I'm not being pollyanna-ish, but

One possibly, partly-comforting thought:

I do think there's always a shortage of people with REAL initiative, imagination, practical intelligence, and determination to do what it takes to make sure that what REALLY matters gets done -- as distinguished from those who are just going through the motions.

There's also lots of noise that can prevent a person with those qualities from being recognized. If that's the situation, it may be necessary to re-locate.

But true competency is inherently valuable; it will tend to manifest itself about you as your own boss, even if others fail ro recognize it.

[pitohui]

19. alas i have not noticed any such shortage

actually the scary thing is how bright young people are, everybody has tons of talent, for most it won't ever be developed or amount to anything because the opportunities are too few for the huge size of the population

[cap]

30. good point about talent going to waste

this is bush america... he never valued himself sufficiently to develop his own talent; he was constantly threatened by the talented from less moneyed backgrounds; this is his revenge

[raccoon]

27. IME, that kind of person is MUCH better off working for him/herself

than for somebody else.

If you're working for somebody else, the vast majority of the time, they don't want you to have any initiative or imagination, except for the initiative to notice that the trash needs to be taken out, and to go ahead and do it. They just want you to be a docile little drone and do what you're told, don't ask questions, and don't make waves.

If you have initiative and imagination, and your bosses don't, they'll run your ass out of there because you'll show them up as the incompetents that they are.

There are exceptions, but IME, they are few and far between.


"I do think there's always a shortage of people with REAL initiative, imagination, practical intelligence, and determination to do what it takes to make sure that what REALLY matters gets done "

[Tesha]

21. No. (NT)

[capi888]

22. I feel your pain!!!

I live in Michigan too, the SW lower Mi.(Whirlpool area) I have to try to sell my building in which I have my small business. I am just hoping someone buys it or I face potential loss of everything I have buiilt up in 10 years. I am of retirement age, and was hoping for a nice retirement when ready to sell my business. Now it is looking very doubtful. The entire State is suffering, we are facing a great depression, and most people here are not prepared. Its truly a shame. Thank goodness I have my children to help me out of this crises I am facing. I put all my funds in my Satellite Business, which requires credit approval for service and MANY of our potential customers have lost their credit. Sad,Sad,Sad..
Keep your garden growing and here is a suggestion.....
Put some classes together To TEACH our young people how to garden, can, and BAKE from scratch. They are going to need it.
WHAT A MESS CAN I SAY: MESSIGAN....IT IS REALLY GOING TO BE A SUMMER TOURIST STATE!!! FOR THE RICH!!!

[Deja Q]

23. Here's the sad REALITY:

If baby boomers retire, maybe...

Unfortunately, they're not thanks to rising costs.

and it's cheaper to offshore, cut jobs, and later declare bankruptcy so they can take the money the workers put in. Legalized stealing. Makes ya feel all warm and fuzzy all over, doesn't it? :(

And Libertarians are all for offshoring... and when they whine about not being able to get a job, they are incapable of putting 1+1 together.

They're so indoctrined to their cult. They change facts to fit their views. Which is scary once you start thinking about it, but thankfully they are in the minority. For the Stupid are like the Powerful in that regard.

[treestar]

25. Could always move to where the jobs are as our ancestors did

Or retrain. I guess starting one's own business is out of the question for Americans today?

If the Indians have money, there are a new market. Sell them something.

Go over there and learn what they might like. But please, don't run afoul of their immigration laws.

[raccoon]

29. Retrain for effing what?

Sometimes that's worthwhile, sometimes not.

" I guess starting one's own business is out of the question for Americans today?"

You may not have noticed, but lots of people are starting their own businesses. Especially if you're over 40/50, it's unlikely you'll get another job other than WalMart greeter.

[conflictgirl]

32. But what's that statistic about how many small businesses fail?

I guess you could say I have gone into business for myself, since I do freelance writing. I don't even make enough from it to cover my house payment.

As for moving to where the jobs are, it's a little more complicated than that because I have young children. And very little money. Moving halfway around the world to find a job, even if it were something I were seriously considering, costs a huge amount of money. People like me who are struggling just to make the house payment don't exactly have the spare cash to move an entire family overseas.

[area51]

31. kick.

We really need a WPA just in the 1st Great Depression in order to put people back to work. If we don't, we'll have hyperinflation as the nazi govt. prints money out the wazoo to make up for the loss of tax revenue due to (1) passing the rich people's tax share onto the poor & middle-class, and then (2) trying their damnest to offshore/inshore every last damned job.

[Thirtieschild]

33. We retired four years ago...

and moved from Atlanta to the southwestern corner of NM. Fortunately we have a small retirement and social security, plus a smallish (much smaller than it once was) 401K that we converted to an IRA. We have supplementary insurance, that so far pays $10 a month for each prescription. We're also 80 miles from Mexico, for major dental and optical care, and prescriptions if our insurance tanks. (My sister's bridgework would be $7,000 in Atlanta, can get it in Palomas for $1,000 - no contest.)

We worry about our children (ages 48, 46, 44, 40), know there's no way they'll have an easy retirement. We urged our son to come out here after he lost his job in the .com mess - 20,000 people looking for 20,000 fewer jobs in Atlanta. He rents a small (as in miniscule) apartment here for $200 a month, plus utilities, which aren't that much for such a small apartment. He can live on minimum wage out here; no way he could live on it in a major city. If he had a family to support, I can't even imagine how tough it would be.

Our daughter in the U.K. (Halifax) complains constantly about the price of everything over there, but does have a job, is learning to live without a car, hangs her laundry outside on the clothesline (just like her mother once had to do), has the advantage of universal medicine.