As the Stock Market Continues its Decline, Bush's Numbers will Crash

[louis c]

If George Bush thinks his numbers are low now (in a range of 29% to 33%) wait until the market bottoms out. You ain't seen nothin' yet.

You see, the economy is all smoke and mirrors and they aren't fooling too many folks already. The unemployment rate is a fraud. If I lose a good job working 40hrs. paying 50K a year with health insurance and then get two jobs working 25 hrs. each making 20K each with no benefits, I'm not twice as better off because I now have two jobs instead of one. As people stop looking for work and unemployment benefits run out the person is not in the unemployment figures.

The economy is fueled by "false money". The American consumer is paying for items with credit cards. When that amount is substantial, they have re-financed their homes to pay off the debt, only to start the same cycle over again. Now that interest rates have risen and home prices have fallen, that option is gone.

Increased property taxes, health insurance, food and fuel prices have wreaked havoc on the family budget. The "core inflation rate" which does not factor in these costs is a farce. The average American has caught on. That's why when that asshole Kudlow talks about the roaring American economy being the best kept secret, he's full of shit. The polls are 3 to 1 that the economy sucks.

Finally, the stock market, which has parked many Americans' 401K money is ready to tank. As I have mentioned earlier, Americans will not get anymore credit. It's time to pay up. The Market has been relatively strong since 2002 because the companies are global. They have been able to improve their bottom line by reducing the most expensive cost they have, labor. Our multi-nationals have taken $17 an hour jobs and moved them overseas to pay workers $3 a day. That sleight of hand worked out, as long as the largest consumer market, America, could follow their government's lead by borrowing in order to spend. As I have mentioned, it's over.

Add to all of this that Gold, Oil and silver have tripled in little more than three years. That China, Opec and India hold nearly all of our financial debt, you'll get the picture.

Who are they going to sell their products to once the free flow of unlimited credit is gone?

Watch the Market. When it fails, George W. Bush will make Herbert Hoover look like Abraham Lincoln by comparison.

[DS1]

1. He talks about his "base", but in reality he has two bases

One of them, old money, has already planned for this crash and will make money from it.
The other, his army of ignorant fuckwads they cater to in the 'heartland' will suffer and mostly likely die, but they'll continue to believe that God appointed GeeDub, and believe he's doing the right thing.

Both will support him through hell, only one will never realize they're propping up the riches of the other.

[cliss]

2. You betcha.

"you can't fool Americans all the time", especially when they know without a doubt, that the economy sucks.

Let them keep blabbing on the news, people are turning their TV's off more and more. Newspapers circulation is steadily going down. The only thing that's going up is the Internet. That's where we get the truth.

Yes, it's going to get worse.

[northamericancitizen]

3. I don't want see you guys lose everything you worked so hard for

but I am starting to think that's coming before you have any chance to kick the busco's out.

I sincerely wish I am wrong.

We have a saying in Canada: when the States sneezes we get the flu.

northamericancitizen

[RB TexLa]

14. I used that phrase with my wife

then girlfriend on the day the markets reopened after 9/11 when I was selling everything North American and moving money. Haven't put one dime back in North American stocks since except for reinvestment of dividends of the oil company stocks I bought the day after the Supreme Court choose b*sh.

[European Socialist]

4. here here.

[northamericancitizen]

5. K&R

[WiseButAngrySara]

6. Frightening but realistic post, louis c. Any predictions wrspt date?

K&R.

[Clarkie1]

7. A good buying opportunity is developing.

This sell-off is to be expected after such a sustained advance since March 2003. It's typical in a midterm election year to have a correction of this kind. It probably won't be greater than 10%, and will be followed by new highs. Look for the S & P to trade in the mid-1300s before years end. Next year is more problematic. We are in a secular bear market which began after the tech bubble burst and will probably last 10 or more years longer. Of course, there will be cyclical bull markets within the secular bear. It is quite possible that we will see the end of the current cyclical bull market sometime next year, but there still should be a good buying opportunity as this current correction continues. P/E ratios are very reasonable at this time, and inflation fears are being way overblown because the market became somewhat overbought.

Over the long term, corrections of this kind are healthy for the market because they provide more overall stability. It was rampant speculation and the lack of such corrections that led to the unprecedented bull market of the 90s and the subsequent crash.

As for Bush's poll numbers, I delight every time they go down. :-)

[iconoclastNYC]

8. If the economy is going to falter I hope it happens under Bush

So he gets the blame. I'd hate President Feingold/Gore/Clarke to get the blame.

[Common Sense Party]

9. Sorry. This market is not tanking. And it has nothing to do with * anyway.

[genieroze]

10. It's making a nasty correction

[Common Sense Party]

17. Corrections are part and parcel. It dropped 1.8% yesterday.

Pretty sharp, but nowhere near the worst. Valuations are quite reasonable. Earnings are decent. Anyone who thinks this is the beginning of equity Armageddon has a screw or two loose.

[genieroze]

18. I have quite a chunk in change in the market, I'm getting anxious.

Tempted to go into something more conservative.

[Common Sense Party]

19. You can always do that. But when do you, ultimately, need to use

the money? In the next couple of years? If so, then by all means, pull it out and put it in a money market fund or a CD. Today.

If you don't need to use the money for a long time, pulling it out may mean you'll miss the major downturn (if there is one), but you'll still be sitting on the sidelines, and you'll miss the upswing when the market goes up again.

I'm a buy-and-hold investor. I put my money in, I diversify it among lots of different asset classes, and I let it ride. No matter what, 25 years from now (when I'm ready to retire), it's gonna be worth more than it is today. Of that I am 99.5% certain.

[louis c]

21. here's a couple of interesting numbers

If you had $100,000 in the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. on January 20, 2001, the day Bush took office and held it for the five years leading up to today, you would be down a few bucks. Then (11,300) now (11,150). You would have gained nothing betting on Bush's America.

By betting AGAINST Bush's America, and buying $100,000 in Gold, which is the equivalent of betting against the dollar, you would have over $250,000 today. Then ($260 an OZ.) now ($680 an OZ.).

The Market would have to reach 27,000 to match what Gold has done (or how poorly the dollar has done). Good luck waiting for that magic 27,000 on the Dow.

[mhatrw]

23. What does the market's value look like in, say, Euros?

Wouldn't you agree that much of the smart money has already been taken out of the market and sunk into commodities?

[louis c]

12. Sure

The capital gains rate at 15% has nothing to do with Bush. The outsourcing of American labor to improve the companies' bottom lines has nothing to do with Bush. The excessive borrowing to keep the government spending at record rates has nothing to do with Bush.

Come on, you've got to be kidding.

And the 1929 crash really had nothing to do with Hoover. Although he got the blame because he inherited the failed Republican policies of Harding, Coolidge and the Repuke Congress of the 1920's. Hoover really is less responsible for the 1929 crash (in office for only 9 months) than Bush is with this one.

It's coming.

[Common Sense Party]

16. Stock markets do good or bad without much regard to who is in

the White House. The Federal Reserve has much, much more influence on the market than the President or Congress do.

So, what you're saying is that, the last 2 years that the market has been doing quite well--Bush was responsible for that?

[louis c]

20. Absolutely

When you take labor at $17 an hour and send it overseas for $3 a day, remove the need for a company to pay health insurance and pensions, relieve the company of a burden of workman's comp.,OSHA requirements and environmental protection laws, reward them for doing all this with tax breaks and incentives, you bet your ass Bush is responsible for that bottom line improvement.

But this is a sort-sighted, reckless economic policy and the chickens are coming home to roost. We don't have people here who can afford to buy the products made overseas at today's wages.

That's why the bottom is about to fall out. The bubble is about burst (Dow down around 50 points today, 500 in a week) and the party's over.

[radfringe]

11. GOP Choir

the choir is out there singing the praises of our 'robust' economy, they also appear flummoxed that most americans can't see or appreciate it...

we keep hearing the same rhetoric... economy is doing great, growing economy, best shape we've ever been in

yet.....the majority of us fail to "get it"

could it be that there is no trickle-down? with bush*'s latest tax relief - I'll see somewhere between $14-$20 for the YEAR of tax relief. This doesn't even buy me a tankful of gas, nor does it offset the hike in our property taxes.

the figure being tossed around for 'average americans' is betwen $100-$120 a year or about $10 a month. BIG F***ing Deal.

A couple of suggestions of what YOU can do with your tax relief, and I invite you to add your suggestions:

1. Write a campaign donation check for $20 - with a letter to your Senate/House candidate campaign saying you are donating your "bush tax relief"
money in hopes of taking our country back

2. Write a letter to your senator/representative/letter to the editor stating you are putting your "tax relief" money in a drawer. In November you plan on using it to put some gas in your car so you can drive to your polling place and VOTE THE BUMS OUT.

3. If you receive a phone call/letter from your sentator/representative running for re-election, and they voted for the 'tax relief' explain that you are unable to donate at this time to their campaign, the 'tax relief' money is being set aside for a tankful of gas to enable you to get to the polls in november to vote them out

[formercia]

13. Gold keeps going up and stocks going down..

oh, yes, the value of your real estate investments too. Money supply going up by who knows what...hang on folks.

I'm glad I put in a big garden this year.


When you go belly-up, the elites will be waiting to take your deed....

[mhatrw]

22. When commodity prices keep going up and wages remain stagnant ...

that's what USED to be called inflation.

The stock market has already gone down significantly if you look at its value in, say, Euros.

[Iowa]

15. There is fear in the air...

Dire predictions have always been with us. But more often than not all the gloom and doom either doesn't pan out, or it is relatively short lived. So don't let fear drive your investment decisions. Here are a couple of practical tips for fellow DUers who are concerned about all the fear in the air.

--Don't put money into the stock market that you're likely to need in the next 5-10 years. Always assume the market will lose half of its value tomorrow - because nobody knows when the market will decline. In other words, invest for the long term and don't sweat inevitable market swings.

--Take a look at this site: http://fireseeker.com/firecalc.php Insert your data into the fields. This will give you a pretty good idea of historical worst-case-scenarios. In other words, you can see what would have happened to your investments had you started drawing from your assets at the beginning of the great depression, during the inflationary 70s, and everything in between. This site is particularly good for those near or in retirement, but younger investors will find it useful too. It may help to put it all into perspective. (Note that there is a discussion group there where a number of savvy investors hang out. Many have retired early, and they come from all walks of life. They stand ready to help if you have questions.)

Regarding the OP... who knows what the future will bring? I certainly don't. Nevertheless, these two statements strike me as hyperbole:

"You see, the economy is all smoke and mirrors..."

"...the stock market, which has parked many Americans' 401K money is ready to tank."

It just isn't that simple. The economy is more than just smoke and mirrors - and the stock market, by its very nature, tanks occasionally; anyone investing in the market should already know that. It isn't news and it shouldn't come as a surprise. What NOBODY knows (including the original poster) is when. I agree with the underlying themes - a market decline would likely impact Bush's numbers, and the republican agenda is based on lies and wreaks havoc on the financial security of working people. I think the OP greatly overreaches when it comes to market predictions, but I agree with much of the post.