The DEADLY bird flu virus doesn't appear to be as DEADLY as first thought

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L11611513.htm

Infected Turkish boys may provide bird flu lesson

ANKARA, Jan 11 (Reuters) - A U.N. health expert said on Wednesday the case of two Turkish boys who tested positive for bird flu without developing symptoms provided a chance to learn more about the virus which has killed 78 people worldwide. snip

"This is a very interesting case. They have still shown no symptoms of the virus and yet have tested positive," said Dr Guenael Rodier, head of a World Health Organisation (WHO) team visiting Turkey.

"The normal flu virus is always at its most virulent at the start of the process, but you don't necessarily exhibit the symptoms at that stage," he said, suggesting a possible similarity between avian influenza and the normal flu virus. snip

The fact that no other patients in Turkey have yet died or indeed have experienced any significant deterioration in their condition has prompted speculation that human bird flu may not be as deadly as previously believed.

It also raises the possibility that doctors battling the disease in Asia had identified only the most serious cases.

[tuvor]

1. Meanwhile, a million malaria victims die annually. n/t

[sui generis]

2. I thought the issue was

an overstimulated immune response leading to pulmonary edema, pneumonia, and shock, i.e., children and youngsters are more prone to die than older people with experienced immune systems.

So it stands to reason that the danger isn't as much to us old fogies as to our kids.

[SaveElmer]

3. A study on this came out yesterday which makes the same conclusion

http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/PublicHealth/tb/2450

In VietNam a large statistical study was done, and found the flu may be much more common than previously thought, with most cases being relatively mild. The 50% mortality rate that is reported is of course of those seeking treatment in hospitals.

Many have suspected this was the case for many months.

Blood testing needs to be done to confirm this however.

[jbonkowski]

10. Even if the mortality rate is 10% or even 1%

That is still a huge number of dead. An airborne strain would be highly contagious, because we have no antibodies for this type of flu. The speed at which this disease kills otherwise young, healthy people is scary.

jim

[SaveElmer]

12. This study belies that contention...

If this holds up with serological testing, the statistical numbers are compelling, so this may be no worse than an ordinary flu in terms of mortality. The death rate we hear is from those sick enough to be hospitalized. Many experts have been saying for months that this was likely. The annual flu outbreak in the US would look particularly deadly if only those hospitalized were counted. We may be seeing that here.

To quote from the study:

"The data are consistent with avian flu as a "relatively mild, febrile, respiratory infection that easily can go undetected," the researchers concluded, especially if it occurs outside the major cities where good quality health care is available. "

http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/tb/2450

These cases in Turkey are anectdotal, but the panic this has caused may be helping to confirm thses findings...with people going into the hospital even though they are not that sick.

More work needs to be done, and serological testing needs to be done to not only confirm these findings, but to nail down the mortality rate more precisely.

[NNN0LHI]

15. No it appears even the little kiddies are getting over it with proper...

...medical care.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L11641893.htm

Signs of recovery console Turks hit by bird flu

VAN, Turkey, Jan 11 (Reuters) - In the children's ward where the Turkish victims of bird flu died, eight-year-old Sumeyye Mamuk has recovered enough to wander the corridor and watch as doctors tend to sicker children lying suffering in bed.

Nine days earlier she was laid low with fever after hugging a sick chicken at her home in Van, eastern Turkey. All 28 children in the ward fell ill after touching poultry, a daily reality for locals ignorant of the dangers until the flu outbreak.

"I was sad about the chickens and held one in my lap. Then I fell ill and they brought me to hospital. I've been here for nine days and I miss my family," Sumeyye, dressed in a jean jacket and skirt, her hair tied with a red ribbon, told Reuters.

Her mother looks on, relieved to see her daughter looking better. In intensive care next door, a child cries and is consoled by one of the many nurses caring for the children.

[Strong Atheist]

4. So far, so good, as the person

who had fallen out of a tall building said on the way down. :evilgrin:

Hope it doesn't mutate to something more deadly in the future ...:scared:

[NNN0LHI]

5. I hope we don't get hit by a big ass meteorite too

:scared:

But what is everyone going to do with all that Tamiflu now?

Don

[Surya Gayatri]

6. Maybe they can flog it

to the chicken and turkey population? Rumsfeld and his Pharmaceutical Corp. mustn't lose out just because the virus won't cooperate by becoming more virulent!! SG
:think:

[Bridget Burke]

7. Only idiots bought up the Tamiflu....

Its usefulness against the hypothetical Person-to-Person Bird Flu is doubtful.

This is a serious story worth continuing attention. But Panic won't help anyone--unless they own Tamiflu stock.

[Surya Gayatri]

8. Let us pray

to the goddess of justice that those who sought to make a killing (by speculating on the suffering of others) lose their freaking shirts! SG
O8)

[Strong Atheist]

11. "I hope we don't get hit by a big ass meteorite too"

Isn't that supposed to happen in about 30 years? I will probably be dead by then ...

[NNN0LHI]

13. It could happen at any time but I am not losing any sleep over it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=100561&mesg_id=100561

Big-Ass Impact

Something to think about during yoga: the earth resides in a swarm of 300,000 or so asteroids that travel around the sun with us like pesky gnats. The probability of a weighty asteroid hitting our planet is slight, but such an impact could be substantial. According to the B612 Foundation, a group of scientists aiming to alter the orbit of asteroids on humanity's behalf, a large (one-kilometer diameter) Near Earth Asteroid would explode with the energy of 70,000 megatons of TNT if it hit our planet. Holy vinyasa! While 65 percent of the one-km NEAs have been identified as non-threats, 35 percent remain an unnerving mystery.

The bad news: These kindly scientists need cash, international cooperation, and leadership. "No one is responsible for protecting earth from asteroid impacts," explains Rusty Schweickart, chair of the B612 Foundation (the name comes from the title character's asteroid home in The Little Prince).

The good news: According to the B612 folks, we now have the capability to anticipate and prevent an impact. They even designed a space tractor to tow or push away an NEA. And according to Near Earth Asteroid Tracking -- a celestial observatory funded by NASA to study asteroids and comets that goes by the happy acronym NEAT -- big asteroids impact the earth only once every 1,000 centuries on average.

[Strong Atheist]

18. Thank you. I was aware of most of this,

having read Sci-Fi for the last 30 years...

one of the biggest (non man-made) things that could wipe out all life on Earth ...

It is a source of amazement in the Sci-fi community that we are doing little to nothing about this ...

[librechik]

9. thank the lord--and send the mosquito nets n/t

[Avalux]

14. Serologies not confirmed yet:

From the article, "Rodier stressed the WHO laboratory in Britain had not yet confirmed that the boys' were positive. "But we expect the results back soon," he said."

Until the results from the WHO lab show a definitive infection with H5N1, stories like this must be considered with skepticism. I'll wait to hear the final report.

[NNN0LHI]

16. I would assume preliminary tests in Turkey have already been taken

But final reports are good.

Don

[SaveElmer]

17. That's my understanding...

They tested positive for the virus in tests conducted in Turkey, and sent the samples to WHO for confirmation.