I wonder who Survey USA has interviewed in MA this month

[Mass]

I started on this article, who seems worrying for Kerry.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/senate-gop-leader-kerry-less-popular-2008-04-29.html

Though I know it is not necessarily a bad result for him, I was somewhat curious about this numbers, so I went to look at the numbers in the polls.


It gives Kennedy his worst approval rating in 2 years:



Not to speak about Patrick Deval who plunged since last month.


And Bush has increased his popularity by 6 points since last month.



So, really, I wonder who they have interviewed.

[blm]

1. Stay at homes on landlines? I wouldn't worry one iota. By fall more Dems will realize

how Kerry has been an enormous force behind Obama's success. Obama will certainly acknowledge it. And I expect Kerry will be Obama's not so secret weapon throughout the fall in arguing against McCain.

Once people hear Kerry UNFILTERED again, they usually do hear him more fairly. And this time it will be without Clintons commanding all the microphones the way they have since 1993.

[karynnj]

2. Even if the sample were good - which it appears it's not

I seriously doubt Bush jumped 5% anywhere - the journalists who use a criteria of 50% at this stage are not basing it on any analysis but just the view that you need 50% plus to win. This not only assumes that you get none of the unsure - it doesn't take into to consideration that elections are constrained choices.

This bothered me seeing people overjoyed with Bush anywhere from 45 to the low 50s depending on the polls. The problem is that the nos included both the "Pat Buchanans" who given Kerry or Bush would still vote Bush. Also it would seem that the people who approve are more likely to vote than the disapproves who may or may not be motivated enough by the alternative. Kerry is also likely being "punished" by HRC people who are saying no - though I assume they will still vote for him.

Here Kerry is at 49, but he will get the Democratic nomination - and we just saw the polls that put him double digits ahead of both Republicans. The real problem is getting people to see what he has done. I am still shocked that other than KERRYVISION which is beyond outstanding I haven't seen anything about two different Bush administration people giving Kerry extraordinary praise for helping in Bali - I put the links and quotes in Whometense's thread. I would imagine that quoting from a committee hearing is allowed and that most of MA would see that being in on the treaty is better than letting things fall apart - and you have a Bush guy saying that without Kerry it wouldn't happen. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=273x148172#148248

[Mass]

3. Relative to the 08 senatorial election. Elias chimes in...

http://chimesatmidnight.blogspot.com/2008/04/avowed-lobsterman-democratic-senatorial.html

And I agree.

[karynnj]

4. That is wonderful - and the lamest reason I ever heard to self finance

By the way, thanks for posting the graphs - the shift from 51 to 49 is very small compared to the Kennedy, Patrick and Bush shifts - I agree with you - they simply got a right wing heavy sample this time. Unless we can think of why Bush incresed his MA popularity that much.