Is A Gore Scenario Emerging? (also a few days old, sorry!)

[lildreamer316]

Sunday, March 9th, 2008

As the number of Democrat delegates available in the remaining state primaries and caucuses dwindles down, the likelihood that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will be able to secure the delegates needed to claim the nomination before the Democratic Convention in late August increases. Numerous factors complicate the issue, but none is more divisive than the controversy over potential delegates from Michigan and Florida. The fact that those two states also loom large as swing states in the November
election exacerbates the problem for Democrats.

Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates when they broke Democratic Party rules and moved up their primary elections. Hillary, who was the only candidate on the ballot in Michigan, won the states in the elections they held despite national Party opposition. Both states are now considering “do over” primaries. However, the costs of holding two new primaries would almost certainly have to be covered by the Democrats, who would prefer to spend those millions of dollars defeating John McCain. Without Michigan and Florida, Clinton and Obama need 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. With those states back in play, either candidate would need 2,209. At this point, Obama leads Clinton by approximately 1,367 to 1,225 in “pledged delegates”, which are based on votes they received at primaries and caucuses.

Because the Democrats will award the remaining delegates proportionally in each state rather than on a “winner take all” basis, it appears unlikely that Clinton can overtake Obama in the races remaining. But it is also unlikely Obama can reach the magic number of 2,025. So what happens if NOBODY wins the nomination during the primary/caucus process?

...more...

http://www.southernledger.com/blogs/stevegill/?p=49

[rosesaylavee]

1. The last paragraph....

"As a former member of both the House and Senate along with his eight years as Vice President, his experience is unquestioned. His military service, including a brief stint in Viet Nam, balances against John McCain’s war hero credentials. With an Academy Award and a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on environmental issues, he can tout leadership on one of the critical issues of the day. Many Democrats would see a Gore-Obama ticket as a true “dream team,” one that can not only achieve victory in November but also get Obama the experience to be President in eight years. At this point, the Gore Scenario is only being talked about in hushed whispers. But as the bloodletting between Clinton and Obama continues, don’t be surprised to hear the talk increase in volume."

My concern right now is the bloodletting. How much can we afford? As much as I would love to see Gore as President, I would hate to see the supporters of HRC and Obama feel disenfranchised to the point of not showing up in November. The amount of chaos and bloodletting needed to sway their support to Gore is what actually frightens me. This brokered convention thing is a very dangerous thing in a year when we absolutely need to regain the White House.

[Andrea]

2. I understand your concerns about the splitting of the party, but

I think a brokered convention with Gore as the candidate is the only way to unite the party. Both the campaigns and the supporters of Obama and Clinton are contributing to the split. If either of them ends up as the nominee, the supporters of the other will feel disenfranchised. Furthermore, because of the open primaries and the abuses in many of the caucus states, we don't really know what the people want. A nomination of either Clinton or Obama would be just as suspect as the "elections" of GWB, in my opinion. Also, Gore is far more electable than either of them.

[rosesaylavee]

3. You and I agree on that ...

but getting the two sets of supporters to come around to that realization is what concerns me. How bloody will it have to get for the majority to lay down their knives and say enough, bring in Gore?

[Andrea]

4. Well, that is a good question

That's why, in spite of the fact it's kind of undemocratic, I'm glad we have the superdelegates. The Obama supporters in particular seem to be in some kind of trance and aren't looking at the situation realistically at all. I'm hoping that the party leaders have a bit more of a rational view, as well as more long-term goals.

I have been encouraged, though, in some threads about Gore recently, to see some supporters on each side saying they could support a Gore nomination.

I think as we get closer to August, more and more dirt will come out about Obama and there may be a significant amount of buyer's remorse among his supporters. So far, they haven't cared to look and see who he really is, but maybe it will become undeniable. I don't know when Rezko's trial is set to start, but that will help. Also, the more people that hear Jeremiah Wright's tirades, the more that will turn against Obama. Sure, he can say he isn't responsible for what his pastor says, and that is true, but he is responsible for his own choice not to leave that church. I was shocked just how hateful those sermons were when I heard them.

As far as the Hillary supporters, they don't seem to be quite so deluded to start with. I think they would be more likely to switch over to Gore based on his superior electability. I saw one person propose that HRC should get the first available seat on the Supreme Court as part of the deal for the Gore nomination and I could see her going for that. That would be a good fit with her strengths and give her a great opportunity to really influence the future of the nation.

What I'd really like to see is some polling on Gore head to head with McCain. I feel sure he would win by a very large margin, but I'd like for their to be something in black and white that the supporters of the other two could look at. It would clearly show them why we need Gore. I'm sure they all agree that we must beat McCain.

[rosesaylavee]

5. Obama is my senator and I am quite certain

from what I have heard locally in the news here that the Rezko thing is not going to reveal any more surprises. Trial has already started. Obama spent a day last week with the Tribune's editorial board telling them everything they wanted to know about it. Our governor is more implicated in the problem than BO. And as for the sermons... I didn't find them overly problematic at all except for the obvious preference for Obama over Clinton. That will cost the church their non-profit status at worst. Question is if others will see Obama as damaged or not. For me, he's not.

HRC is determined to drag us all to mat on this and fight over the elected delegates if need be. It will get quite bloody by the time she's done.

Polling for Gore head to head with McCain would be a convincing argument if we head down that road.

[rodbailey]

6. Just watched Meet the Press,

where Russert had Nita Lowey (HRC supporter) and Sen. Bradley (BO supporter) on. Of course they both agreed we should move past the Pastor Wright and Ferraro issues. But, Bradley kept bringing up the non-transparency with the Clinton's on recent tax returns (HRC - we'll be releasing those shortly (depends on what the meaning of shortly is)) and donors to the $500 million Clinton library and whether there were favors granted (pardons, etc.) in return, and the papers about what HRC really did in the White House to give her "experience." I suspect as some of that comes out, which apparently it will sometime between now and the convention, there may be some real problems for HRC. Again, I suspect, that's why they're keeping it locked away until she has the nomination; except then it might be fatal to her general election chances which give us McCain for 4 years. Yuck!!!

By the way, I think if you boil down some of what Pastor Wright said (about why maybe some in the world weren't our friends even before Iraq) and put it into a "calm" context (not the bombast from the pulpit that I understand is not that unusual in a black church - or for that matter in some white churches - at least according to Michelle Norris from NPR, also on with Russert) then I think he was raising some valid issues that need discussion in this country. That's not to excuse those folks for coming at us on 9/11, but to try to understand, from their perspective, why they felt that way. 'Nuff said about that.

[Andrea]

8. I haven't watched MTP yet, but will shortly

All these things about HRC are huge problems. If she ended up as nominee, they could surely sink her with this stuff.

As far as Pastor Wright, like I said above, some of what he said seems true to me, but the problem is he seems to be attacking the whole nation regarding these issues when in fact those that are to blame are the top right-wing power guys. I live in the inner city and while not black, I am pretty familiar with the style in many black churches. His style is slightly more extreme than what I have generally seen. It probably isn't a problem with most AA voters, but it will be a big problem with the vast majority of the electorate. I don't think the way he presents his points will lead to any constructive discussion. I think it is polarizing.

Anyway, we all seem to be in agreement that we are pretty worried that with either of these two candidates we are going to end up with McCain. It's not only a question of who will vote for either of them, but also how we as a party can put together an effective campaign with so many of our own people turned off to the point of not volunteering. I think that is just one more area where Gore would be far superior. There are so many people I know who have never volunteered for a campaign before that would turn out enthusiastically to volunteer for Al Gore. Also, donations for Gore would pour in.

[Andrea]

7. You are closer to the issues than I am

Maybe there won't be much more to come on the Rezko thing. I've read a lot about Obama already that leads me to conclude he is not who I thought he was at first. My problem with the sermons I heard is that he seems to be attacking all Americans for what a few people in power did. We know that we funded OBL and set him up to fight the Soviets, for example, but that was nothing that we approved of - it was Rummy et al under Reagan. If someone as liberal as I am felt attacked, I can't imagine how badly that stuff is going over with the moderates that we need to attract. When the 527s let loose on all this stuff, it's going to get incredibly ugly. It was horrible enough what they did to Kerry when he gave them very little ammunition.

I think you are completely right about HRC and I find that appalling.

[TBF]

9. He's not my senator but I support him - and I support Gore

I'm still a huge fan of Al Gore, and wouldn't mind seeing a Gore/Obama ticket. I really like Obama and his approach, but the experience thing will be harder against McCain. Gore at the helm adds instant name recognition, depth, and military experience. Also most people recognize by now that he won the popular vote in 2000 and has been spending his time on the environment. In hindsite there may be some moderates out there who wish they would've voted for him instead of Bush.

Of course I may be a somewhat biased Obama supporter since I have never liked Hillary, but the thought of those two on the same ticket is more of a nightmare than a dream. But I would vote for Gore/Obama, and I bet many others would as well.