Obama treading carefully on gay issues in 2012 bid

[w8liftinglady]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-usa-campaign-gays-idUSTRE75L4IE20110622

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama has delivered important political victories for gays but is unlikely to push his support for gay rights much further before the 2012 election in case he alienates independent voters.

Gay leaders will likely give Obama high marks at a fundraiser in New York on Thursday for pushing through issues like winning gays the right to serve openly in the military.

Yet calls for the White House to back gay marriage and strengthen federal anti-discrimination protection will probably go unheeded as Obama treads carefully in the run-up to next November's election.

"The conundrum Obama faces is keeping this essential core constituency while not going overboard and alienating the high-intensity opponents of that constituency," said pollster John Zogby of IBOPE Zogby International. "His challenge is to continue to play it cool and not to go overboard."

Independent voters, seen as less likely to back gay causes, will be crucial in winning closely contested states such as Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana and Wisconsin.

[Vincardog]

1. Obama is in danger of taking the cautious middle road to oblivion.

[polichick]

2. True - indies go with the strongest team; he should stand sure and strong.

[Vincardog]

3. That would require him to have (and act on) principals

[joeybee12]

9. I agree...most independents are independents because their views on issues aren't that strong...

They like to see someone take action and take a stand, even if they might not agree with that person...it's basic politics that team Obama seems incapable of understanding.

[Dept of Beer]

4. Isn't there some comic that portrays him as a middle man?

[Vanje]

5. Waffling

looks WEAK.

[Scottybeamer70]

6. He's not going to do anything that might cost him a vote.

Imagine where we would be by now if we didn't have to wait for elections to come around and get all the
promises, and then.........well........you know.......it's all about being re-elected.....none of them
cares one whit about getting anything actually accomplished. It's about THEIR well being....certainly not ours.

[MuseRider]

10. Hopefully he understands

that this WILL cost him votes. Quite a few I imagine. LGBT citizens and people who believe in equality as a fundamental issue are not all Democrats and some of them are and may not vote for him. Some of those who are not Democrats are Independent because the party has not supported them or equality, they don't even have to feel party pressure.

He looks weak doing this. He looks much less than the fierce advocate he said he was. Not surprised here, I never thought he was an advocate at all just someone who would go only far enough to not feel ashamed to ask for more money and votes.

[laconicsax]

7. Playing politics with people's lives? What a fierce advocate!

:puke:

[MNBrewer]

13. I think it's really "fear's advocate"

We misheard. He said that "fear's advocate" for GLBT equality.

[Zorra]

8. "treading...on gay issues"?

Don't tread on me.

[yardwork]

11. Nobody who was going to vote for Obama would not vote for him as a result of gay rights advocacy.

I just don't see it. I can't think of a single constituency that would decide to vote against Obama just because he advocated for gay rights.

If you can think of one, please describe it here.

[MuseRider]

14. Exactly!

Those doodley whack jobs he likes to court won't vote for him in a million years. They are so worried about making the baby Jebus cry that the very thought of a liberal, although that may be questionable to many of us, making any kind of political decision is bad.

The rest of the people include people who have all kinds of reasons they would not vote for it but would sigh and accept it until it became no big deal in about a nanosecond. The main reason I seem to see from those people is the ever stupid *marriage is special* people. Although that can be fought in a bunch of different ways I always ask them how they think their spouse would feel if they told them that. Would they perhaps reply that perhaps it is not and maybe they will see a lawyer since it really is not that special anymore.

You are absolutely correct as usual yardwork.

[yardwork]

20. And you are a sweetie, as usual!

[johnnypneumatic]

15. Dan Savage thinks otherwise

Dan thinks it is a purely political calculation. Obama is afraid to endorse marriage equality for fear of losing the vote of homophobic democrats.

"Because Republicans who support marriage equality aren't going to vote for Barack Obama in 2012 just because he came out for marriage equality. But Democrats who don't support marriage equality are likely to vote against Obama if he does."
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2011/06/20/barack-obamas-devolution-on-marriage-equality

apparently they think there are more homophobic democrats that will vote against him than there are gay democrats that would vote for him

[MNBrewer]

16. There are a lot of homophobic Democrats.

[yardwork]

19. I realize that. Are they homophobic enough to vote for a Republican because of one issue?

And how many of those homophobic Democrats are also racist and therefore unlikely to vote for Obama anyway? There is a lot of overlap between the white racist and homophobic camps.

And among black voters, I don't believe that a single black voter would choose to vote against Obama just because he supported gay rights. He's going to get 90%+ of the black vote no matter what, and that remaining 10% will never vote for a Democrat no matter what.

Abortion is a much bigger decider. Is Obama going to come out against abortion next? I hope not.

[MNBrewer]

26. It depends

When Amy Klobuchar was running for Hennepin County Attorney the first time, I saw her in a debate with her Republican opponent. Klobuchar maintained that in order to obtain more convictions, the prosecution should speak last in trials. My partner and I looked each other with our jaws dropped! IF the jury verdict depends on which side goes last, the benefit should ALWAYS go to the accused! She was advocating tipping the scales of justice from the accused to the State! (btw, I could tell she had her sights set higher than County Attorney at that point and distrusted her even MORE for that)

I voted for her Republican opponent, who defended the benefit of the doubt going to the accused. So, we had a Police State Democrat vs. a Republican who defended the burden of proof being on the State.... I'll go with the Republican in that case any time.

[yardwork]

18. Dan Savage hasn't been specific. Who exactly will vote against Obama purely because of gay issues?

Show me somebody who would decide to vote against Obama just because of his support for gay rights, and I'll show you somebody who wasn't going to vote for Obama anyway.

Meanwhile, his waffling and wimpiness in this area are turning potential voters off.

[Pab Sungenis]

25. The homophobic anti-marriage Democrats run the party in my area

and, apparently, in the state.

[GodlessBiker]

17. You're right. They won't vote against him. If it's raining, however, they just won't...

have the energy to vote for him. He is sapping the energy out of people who would otherwise get to the polls no matter what.

[yardwork]

21. Because of gay rights? I just don't see that as a deciding factor.

I believe that if Obama came out strongly in favor of equal rights it would not cost him many votes AND he would pick up some votes from Independents and even some Republicans who are getting disgusted with the gay bashing in this country.

[GodlessBiker]

23. I agree completely. I'm talking about a lack of energy if he doesn't come out in favor.

[yardwork]

24. Ok, got you. We're saying the same thing.

Obama has used religion as his excuse for not supporting equal marriage and other gay rights. Jesus never said anything about being gay, but he did say something about being lukewarm. He said that he would spit out the lukewarm water.

Most people admire a person who takes a stand.

[MNBrewer]

12. His political reticence is more likely to alienate independents than anything else

The following statement from the OP is pure bullshit.

"The conundrum Obama faces is keeping this essential core constituency while not going overboard and alienating the high-intensity opponents of that constituency," said pollster John Zogby of IBOPE Zogby International. "His challenge is to continue to play it cool and not to go overboard."

The high-intensity opponents of his "constituency" are ALREADY alienated! What benefit is it to him to try to play to them when they're never, EVER going to vote for him?

[yardwork]

22. That is exactly my question. Since Obama is a highly intelligent man, I conclude

that all this talk about alienating swing voters is a bunch of nonsense created as a smokescreen to cover up what Obama is actually doing, which is going along with the corporations and large religious organizations as much as he possibly can without alienating too many Democrats.

The money provided by corporations and the huge religious organizations is essential to getting elected nowadays. Obama doesn't dare alienate them. However, as a Democrat he has to kind of sort of do Democratic things from time to time, just enough to keep Democrats voting for him instead of the Republican. It helps that the Republicans get crazier and crazier. The companies really like this situation because they win either way.

[RetiredTrotskyite]

27. Lovely. Not Unexpected, Though...

He risks alienating the GLBT vote for people who really aren't that likely to vote for him. Wonderful how our rights and concerns are so expendable.