ELECTION MODEL (TIA) : OBAMA'S TREND ONLY MARGINALLY EXCEEDS KERRY, SO...

[tiptoe]

Election Model Trend: Obama vs. Kerry
TruthIsAll

September 19, 2008

In Sept. 2004, John Kerry’s poll numbers and projected vote share declined sharply right after the Republican Convention. This year was no different: Obama’s 4% national poll lead evaporated to a 2% deficit. But like Kerry, Obama’s poll numbers quickly rebounded.

This post compares the 2008 Election Model polling and projection trend to the 2004 Election Model. The state polling data source was electoral-vote.com for both.

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Forewarned is forearmed. It could very well happen again.

full post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7121622&mesg_id=7121622 -x

full post Recommend

[Lost4words]

1. Could happen again?! Hell I expect it! What has changed?

as long as the MSM says they are running neck and neck they can pull it off again, so mentally I am preparing myself for the continuation of this nightmare.

Its not WHO votes that counts, Its WHO is counting the votes! And what has our esteemed Speaker of the house done for the country in this regard? Not too darn much but she looks good every day.

I am hoping for a landslide for BO.

8643

[Stevepol]

2. Same here. If the economy keeps going south it will have to be a landslide.

And there's a lot of other things working in O's favor, Troopergate for one, which gets a bump in early October I think.

Plus the MSM is beginning to report on the voting machines a little earlier this time, wondering why nothing has been done, not that it will have any effect on the vendors or the elections officials.

The election will definitely be manipulated and McCain can count on at least a 3% flip in his favor and probably a good deal more, but I'm not sure it will be enough with the news that's piling up. McCain has a real gift at making enemies and Palin seems to be a real soul mate for him in that regard.

[tiptoe]

3. kick!

[Kurovski]

4. Lucky #5. (nt)