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Edited on Tue Jan-29-08 08:46 PM by tiptoe
Florida: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslideTruthIsAll http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FloridaConfirmationOfKerryLandslide.htm
In every election, millions of votes are never counted They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.6m recorded, leaving 5.2m uncounted. Most were from heavily Democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners. And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth. Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth. The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close.
Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount – and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. And don’t forget the thousands of Butterfly ballots which fooled Gore voters into voting for Buchanan.
- Approximately 54% of the spoiled ballots were in black districts, where Gore won 91% of the vote.
Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then 126,000 (72%) of the spoiled ballots were Gore votes. - And the infamous “Butterfly” ballot caused several thousand Gore voters to mistakenly vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County. Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in Palm Beach and just 0.25% elsewhere.
Dan Rather's exposé on voting machines in Florida 2000 showed that poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in highly Democratic precincts. Faulty paper had never before been considered a factor in mechanical voting failure. The spoiled punched cards in Florida were just the tip of the national iceberg.
Kerry had an approximate 100,000 built-in vote advantage in Florida. - He could count on a solid majority (70–80%) of 90,000 returning Nader voters.
- No more hanging chads from spoiled punch cards; only DRE Touch screens (TS) and Optical scanners (OS) would be used for input to the central tabulators.
- Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable GOTV and new registration effort.
Of course, they had to overcome Bush’s popularity; he had a whopping 48.5% approval rating on Election Day.
The Florida pre-election polls ( ) were trending to Kerry. After allocating the undecided vote, Kerry led the final 10-poll average by 51.1–48.8%. Kerry was on track to a 200,000 vote win.
But Bush “won” the official vote by 52–47%, a 368,000 vote margin. How did Bush do it?
- Could it have been that he won Independent voters?
No, according to the Composite Florida exit poll, they voted 60-38% for Kerry.
- Could it have been late Undecided voters who made up their minds in the month prior to the election?
No, they also voted 61% for Kerry.
- Could it have been New voters?
No, Kerry won first-timers by 58-41%. The Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the Republicans.
- Could it have been that voters favored an AWOL “War President” over a Medal of Honor winner?
No, his approval rating was 48% on Election Day.
- Could it have been the 90,000 returning Nader 2000 voters?
No, Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%, giving him an initial 40,000 vote advantage.
- Could it have been the voting machines?
Do you believe in magic?
HAVA seat.
Let’s crunch some numbers.
Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.
Consider Florida’s implausible vote count by machine-type and party registration The Democrats had a 41–37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 45–37% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Bush’s vote share was 125% of his registration share in TS counties and 146% in Optiscan counties. For Kerry, the corresponding percentages were 130% and 1%. Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties? Since Bush was first selected in 2000, the Florida Republican vote share–to–registration share ratio has increased sharply compared to the Democrats.
- In 1996, there were 6% more Dole voters in Florida than registered Republicans.
— The Clinton vote share was equal to the registered Democratic share.
In 2000, there were 28% more Bush voters than registered Republicans.
— The Gore vote share was 9% greater than the registered Democratic share.
In 2004, there were 41% more Bush voters than registered Republicans.
— The Kerry vote share was 10% greater than the registered Democratic share.
Kerry won TS counties (3.86mm votes) by 51–47%, and Bush won the OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57–42%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated Democratic TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect. The TS county vote share matched the 12:22am NEP to within 0.5%, but the OS county share deviated by 9.0% in favor of Bush (307,000 votes). Assuming a 1.0% margin of error, the probability was virtually zero that Kerry's TS vote share would exceed his state-wide Florida share by 4.2%.
The unadjusted, "pristine" Florida exit poll had Kerry leading by 51.0–48.2%. The Florida General Exit Poll indicated that the election was a virtual tie (see the Gender demographic). Final State and National Exit poll category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote count. It’s standard operating procedure.
But a closer analysis shows significant Bush bias in the exit poll weights and vote shares. A combination of county registration data, the pre-election polling trend, Bush’s approval and exit poll demographic indicated that Kerry won the state by close to 200,000 votes.
Florida Exit Poll vs. Actual Recorded Vote
Recorded Vote (in thousands)
2004 Total Kerry Bush Other 2000 Total Gore Bush Other
Count 7582 3584 3965 33 Count 5939 2912 2912 115
Share 100% 47.3% 52.3% 0.4% Share 100% 49.0% 49.0% 1.9%
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll
Method Kerry Bush
IM WPE 50.9% 48.3% Unadjusted average WPE (difference in margin between exit poll and recorded vote)
GEO 49.2 50.3 Adjusted for incoming recorded votes
Composite 49.3 50.1 Adjusted for incoming recorded votes and pre-election polls (12:40am)
Best SPM 48.6 51.1% Forced to match the final recorded vote count
- IM WPE
The statewide WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average of each precinct’s WPE. Extreme precincts have not been removed.
This is the WPE value on the Input Management screen. Florida precincts had an average WPE of 7.8%.
Applying the WPE adjustment to the recorded vote shares, the calculated shares are:
Kerry = Final Recorded + .5* WPE = 47.1 + 3.9 = 51.0%
Bush = Final Recorded – .5* WPE = 52.1 - 3.9 = 48.2%
- Best GEO Survey Estimate
This is the estimate with the lowest Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF) using the cumulative precinct tallies for each candidate.
- Prior Estimate
Prior Estimates are based upon pre-election surveys conducted in each state. The Prior Estimate is used in combination with the Best Survey Estimate during election day to create a Composite Estimate
- Composite Estimate
The Composite is the weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate. The Composite is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data on Election Day before the actual vote is reported.
- Best SPM
Final adjusted estimates computed using actual vote returns for each sampled precinct.
The Florida Composite Exit Poll raised these red flags:
- PARTY-ID weights: Dem 38% / Rep 39%
—The actual Florida 2004 Voter Registration shares were Dem 42.0 / Rep 38.4%
- Bush led VOTERS WHO DECIDED 30+ DAYS before the election by 54–46%.
—But late September Pre-Election polls () indicated the race was tied.
—And Kerry led voters who decided in the final month by 61–38%.
- BUSH APPROVAL weight: 53% (strong approval 35%)
—But his average approval was 48.5% based on 11 national polls.
- URBAN VOTE share: The Florida exit poll indicated Bush led by 53–46%.
—But the 7:33pm National Exit Poll update indicated Kerry led 57–41% (Table 4).
The Composite exit poll was contradicted:
- The Pre-Election 10-poll moving average projected Kerry by 51.1–48.8%.
- The Unadjusted Exit Poll (WPE method) had Kerry winning by 51.0–48.2%.
These models confirmed the Pre-Election and Unadjusted-Exit Polls:
- Election Calculator
Kerry won by 51.4 – 48.0% — a 260,000 vote margin.
- Voting method/ Party ID weights
Kerry won by 50.7 – 48.1% — a 197,000 vote margin.
- Uncounted and switched votes — Adjustments made to the final 2004 recorded vote.
Kerry won by 51.3 – 48.2% — a 240,000 vote margin.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Model I: Election Calculator
Kerry wins by 51.4 – 48.0%
(260,000 vote margin)
Assumptions:
Uncounted Votes
Pct Cast Unctd
2004 3.0% 7.813 0.234
2000 2.85% 6.137 0.175
2004 Share 2000 Share
Kerry 75% Gore 75%
Bush 23% Bush 22%
Other 2% Nader 3%
2000 Voter Mortality
Total Voters 1.22%
Gore share 52%
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004
Gore 95%
Bush 95%
Nader 95%
2000 Recorded 2004 Calculated
Voted Recorded Uncounted Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV DNV 2.27 29.0% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 2.91 0.13 3.04 0.16 2.89 95% 2.74 35.1% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 2.91 0.04 2.95 0.14 2.81 95% 2.67 34.2% 9% 91% 0%
Nader 0.14 0.01 0.14 0.01 0.14 95% 0.13 1.6% 64% 19% 17%
Total 5.96 0.17 6.14 0.30 5.84 5.55 7.81 100% 51.41% 48.02% 0.57%
7.81 4.02 3.75 0.04
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry Vote Share Gore Share of
Uncounted Bush 2000 Turnout: 95.0%
Gore Voter Turnout Kerry Vote Share Kerry Share of
Gore Voters Bush 2000 Voters: 9.0%
New Voters (DNV in 2000) 51.4% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0% 97.0% 99.0% 50.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 51.4% 85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
51.0% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.1%
51.0% 51.2% 51.5% 51.8% 52.0%
50.9% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7% 51.9%
50.8% 51.1% 51.3% 51.6% 51.9%
50.7% 51.0% 51.2% 51.5% 51.8% 51.6% 52.2% 52.8% 53.4% 54.0%
50.9% 51.5% 52.1% 52.7% 53.3%
50.2% 50.8% 51.4% 52.0% 52.6%
49.5% 50.1% 50.7% 51.3% 51.9%
48.8% 49.4% 50.0% 50.6% 51.2% 94.0%
92.0%
90.0%
88.0%
86.0%
Kerry Margin Kerry Margin 0.26 91.0% 93.0% 95.0% 97.0% 99.0% 50.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 0.26 85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.38
0.19 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36
0.18 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.35
0.17 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33
0.15 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32
0.30 0.39 0.48 0.57 0.67
0.19 0.28 0.37 0.46 0.56
0.08 0.17 0.26 0.35 0.45
(0.03) 0.06 0.15 0.25 0.34
(0.04) (0.05) 0.04 0.14 0.23
94.0%
92.0%
90.0%
88.0%
86.0%
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Model II
Party Registration weights for DRE and Optiscan counties applied to FL Exit Poll shares
Kerry wins by 50.7 – 47.7%
(197,000 vote margin)
136,000 vote margin in Touch screen (DRE) counties;
61,000 margin in Optiscan (OS) counties
Assumptions:
–Florida Composite Exit Poll Party-ID vote shares
–Party Registration weights
Party Registration by Voting Method
County Total Dem Rep
TS 5.576 40.89% 36.77%
OS 4.725 41.92% 38.98%
Total 10.301 41.37% 37.79%
Recorded Vote
County Total Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
TS 3.903 51.30% 47.77% 0.9% 2.002 1.864 .037
OS 3.707 42.27% 57.03% 0.7% 1.566 2.114 .027
Total 7.610 47.10% 52.10% 0.8% 3.568 3.978 .064
Party-ID: exit poll shares; registration weights
TS Counties
Dem 40.9% 86% 13% 1%
Rep 36.8% 7% 92% 1%
Ind 22.3% 60% 38% 2%
Vote 3.903 1.996 1.860 0.048
Pct 100% 51.1% 47.7% 1.2%
OS Counties
Dem 41.9% 86% 13% 1%
Rep 39.0% 7% 92% 1%
Ind 19.1% 60% 38% 2%
Vote 3.707 1.862 1.801 0.044
Pct 100% 50.2% 48.6% 1.2%
Total
TS 3.903 1.996 1.860 0.048
OS 3.707 1.862 1.801 0.044
Vote 7.610 3.858 3.661 0.092
Pct 100% 50.7% 48.1% 1.2%
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Model III: Uncounted and Switched vote adjustments
Kerry wins by 51.3 – 48.2%
(241,000 vote margin)
Assumptions:
3.0% of total votes cast uncounted
—176k uncounted to Kerry (75%)
— 56k uncounted to Bush (24%)
251k Kerry votes switched to Bush (7%)
Total Kerry Bush Other
Recorded 7582 3584 3965 33
Uncounted 234 176 56 2
Total 7816 3760 4021 35
Switched +251 -251 0
True Vote 7816 4011 3770 35
Share 100% 51.3% 48.2% 0.5%
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Recorded Vote and Registration Shares
1996 2000 2004 1996 2000 2004
Total Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Democratic Margin
Vote Share 47.8 42.3 48.8 48.8 47.1 52.1 5.5 0.0 (5.0)
Reg. Share 47.7 39.8 44.8 38.2 42.8 36.9 7.9 6.6 5.9
Vote/Reg. 100.0 106.3 108.9 127.7 110.0 141.2 (6.3) (18.8) (31.1)
Reg. Share
DRE 44.5 41.6 42.0 39.1 41.1 36.5 2.9 2.9 4.6
Optiscan 51.0 37.8 47.7 37.2 44.6 37.4 13.2 10.5 7.2
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Pre-Election Polls
The final moving average projection: Kerry 51.1–48.8%
Projection Moving Average
Date Pollster Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush
23-May Zogby 49 48 1 50.4 48.6 1.0
31-May Rasmussen 39 51 1 45.3 53.7 1.0
06-Jun Zogby 50 48 1 50.7 48.3 1.0
14-Jun Survey USA 43 50 1 47.2 51.8 1.0
17-Jun Rasmussen 48 44 1 52.9 46.1 1.0
20-Jun Zogby 46 50 1 48.1 50.9 1.0
22-Jun Rasmussen 48 42 1 54.3 44.7 1.0
23-Jun ARG 47 46 1 51.2 47.8 1.0
27-Jun Quinnipiac 43 43 5 49.3 45.7 5.0
30-Jun Rasmussen 48 43 0 54.3 45.7 0.0 50.4 48.3
11-Jul Survey USA 47 44 0 53.3 46.7 0.0 50.7 48.1
15-Jul ARG 47 44 3 51.2 45.8 3.0 51.3 47.4
21-Jul LA Times 44 45 2 50.3 47.7 2.0 51.2 47.3
22-Jul Gallup 46 50 1 48.1 50.9 1.0 51.3 47.2
23-Jul Zogby 48 49 1 49.4 49.6 1.0 51.0 47.6
30-Jul Zogby 50 47 2 50.7 47.3 2.0 51.2 47.2
05-Aug ARG 50 43 2 53.5 44.5 2.0 51.1 47.2
10-Aug Quinnipiac 47 41 4 52.6 43.4 4.0 51.3 46.7
21-Aug Zogby 50 49 0 50.7 49.3 0.0 51.4 47.1
22-Aug Gallup 46 48 2 48.8 49.2 2.0 51.2 47.3
24-Aug Rasmussen 47 49 2 48.4 49.6 2.0 50.9 47.5
25-Aug Research2k 46 46 2 50.2 47.8 2.0 50.6 47.7
11-Sep Rasmussen 47 48 1 49.8 49.2 1.0 50.3 47.9
14-Sep Survey USA 45 51 0 47.8 52.2 0.0 50.0 48.4
16-Sep Rasmussen 47 48 0 50.5 49.5 0.0 50.0 48.5
17-Sep Zogby 48 48 1 50.1 48.9 1.0 50.2 48.4
20-Sep ARG 46 45 2 50.9 47.1 2.0 50.3 48.2
22-Sep Gallup 45 47 2 49.2 48.8 2.0 50.2 48.3
26-Sep Rasmussen 49 48 0 51.1 48.9 0.0 50.0 48.7
27-Sep Gallup 44 49 2 47.5 50.5 2.0 49.6 49.3
29-Sep Rasmussen 47 50 0 49.1 50.9 0.0 49.5 49.4
03-Oct Survey USA 46 51 0 48.1 51.9 0.0 49.4 49.6
04-Oct Rasmussen 46 52 0 47.4 52.6 0.0 49.3 49.9
05-Oct Mason-Dixon 44 48 0 49.6 50.4 0.0 49.3 50.1
05-Oct ARG 47 45 2 51.2 46.8 2.0 49.4 49.9
05-Oct Zogby 50 49 1 50.0 49.0 1.0 49.6 49.6
05-Oct Rasmussen 45 52 0 47.1 52.9 0.0 49.3 49.9
10-Oct Rasmussen 45 49 0 49.2 50.8 0.0 49.2 50.1
10-Oct Wash Post 47 47 1 50.5 48.5 1.0 49.2 50.2
14-Oct Rasmussen 46 48 0 50.2 49.8 0.0 49.3 50.3
16-Oct Mason-Dixon 45 48 0 49.9 50.1 0.0 49.2 50.4
17-Oct Survey USA 50 49 0 50.7 49.3 0.0 49.4 50.3
18-Oct Zogby 49 50 0 49.7 50.3 0.0 49.5 50.2
18-Oct Rasmussen 47 47 0 51.2 48.8 0.0 49.7 49.9
21-Oct Research 2000 48 47 2 50.1 47.9 2.0 50.0 49.6
23-Oct Rasmussen 48 48 0 50.8 49.2 0.0 50.1 49.5
24-Oct Survey USA 50 48 0 51.4 48.6 0.0 50.1 49.6
25-Oct ARG 49 46 0 52.5 47.5 0.0 50.3 49.5
26-Oct Quinnipiac 44 44 1 51.7 47.3 1.0 50.7 49.0
26-Oct Rasmussen 48 48 0 50.8 49.2 0.0 50.8 48.9
27-Oct Zogby 46 48 0 50.2 49.8 0.0 50.8 49.0
27-Oct NY Times 48 47 2 50.1 47.9 2.0 50.8 48.8
28-Oct Rasmussen 46 49 0 49.5 50.5 0.0 50.7 48.9
29-Oct Mason-Dixon 45 49 0 49.2 50.8 0.0 50.6 49.0
29-Oct Zogby 47 45 0 52.6 47.4 0.0 50.8 48.7
29-Oct Rasmussen 47 48 0 50.5 49.5 0.0 50.8 48.8
30-Oct Gallup 49 45 0 53.2 46.8 0.0 51.0 48.7
30-Oct Zogby 49 47 0 51.8 48.2 0.0 51.1 48.6
30-Oct Rasmussen 47 49 0 49.8 50.2 0.0 51.0 48.8
31-Oct Opinion Dyn 49 44 1 53.2 45.8 1.0 51.1 48.6
31-Oct Survey USA 48 49 0 50.1 49.9 0.0 50.9 48.8
31-Oct Zogby 48 47 0 51.5 48.5 0.0 51.0 48.8
31-Oct Rasmussen 47 50 0 49.1 50.9 0.0 50.9 48.9
01-Nov ARG 50 48 0 51.4 48.6 0.0 51.0 48.9
01-Nov Zogby 48 48 0 50.8 49.2 0.0 51.1 48.8
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Florida 2004 Exit Poll (Composite)
Party-ID (2743 respondents) Pct KERRY BUSH Other
Dem 38 86 13 1
Rep 39 7 92 1
Ind 23 60 38 2
Share 100 49.2 49.6 1.2
Vote 7610 3745 3772 94
Kerry Margin: (27)
Party ID: adjusted to actual registration weights
Dem 41.4 86 13 1
Rep 37.8 7 92 1
Ind 20.8 60 38 2
Share 100 50.7 48.1 1.2
Vote 7610 3858 3660 91
Kerry Margin: 198
Sensitivity Analysis
Registration % Share
Dem 38 39 40 41.4
Rep 39 38 37 35.6
Ind 23 23 23 23.0
Kerry
%Dem Kerry Vote Share
89 49.5 50.4 51.2 52.0
88 49.2 50.0 50.8 51.6
87 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.2
86 48.4 49.2 50.0 50.8
Kerry Vote Margin (mil)
89 22 147 272 396
88 (34) 89 212 336
87 (91) 31 153 275
86 (147) (27) 94 214
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Bush Approval (2409)
Pct KERRY BUSH Other
Strong Appr 35 4 96 0
Approve 18 17 82 1
Disapprove 12 84 13 3
Strong Disa 35 98 1 1
Total 100 48.8 50.3 0.9
Approve 53 9 91 0
Disapprove 47 95 4 1
Total 100 49.4 50.1 0.47
7610 3761 3813 36
Kerry Margin: (53)
Bush Approval: adjusted to 48.5% national average
Pct KERRY BUSH Other
Strong Appr 33.0 4 96 0
Approve 15.5 17 82 1
Disapprove 14.5 84 13 3
Strong Disa 37.0 98 1 1
Total 100 52.4 46.7 1.0
Approve 48.5 9 91 0
Disapprove 51.5 95 4 1
Total 100 53.3 46.3 0.52
7610 4055 3515 39
Kerry Margin: 540
Sensitivity Analysis
Average Bush approval
Kerry% 53 52 51 50 49 48.5
Disapr Kerry vote share
95 49.4 50.3 51.1 52.0 52.9 53.3
94 49.0 49.8 50.7 51.5 52.4 52.8
93 48.5 49.3 50.2 51.0 51.8 52.3
92 48.0 48.8 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.7
Kerry Vote Margin
95 (53) 79 211 342 474 540
94 (124) 6 136 266 396 462
93 (196) (67) 62 190 319 383
92 (267) (140) (13) 114 241 305
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
When Decided (2162)
Pct KERRY BUSH Other
3days 8 53 45 2
Week 3 70 27 3
Month 12 61 38 1
Before 30 46 54 0
Total 100 49.1 50.6 0.4
7610 3735 3847 28
Kerry Margin: (112)
When Decided: adjusted 30+days to 50/50
Pct KERRY BUSH Other
3days 8 53 45 2
week 3 70 27 3
month 12 61 38 1
Before 77 50 50 0
Total 100 52.2 47.5 0.4
7610 3969 3612 28
Kerry margin: 357
Sensitivity Analysis
Over Decided for Kerry within last month
30 59 60 61 62 64
Kerry Vote Share
50 51.9 52.0 52.2 52.3 52.5
49 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.8
48 50.4 50.5 50.6 50.7 51.0
47 49.6 49.7 49.9 50.0 50.2
46 48.8 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.4
Kerry Vote Margin (mil)
50 320 339 357 375 412
49 203 221 240 258 295
48 86 104 123 141 177
47 (31) (13) 5 24 60
46 (148) (130) (112) (94) (57)
30 60 61 62 63 64
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Bush Change in share from 2000
Bush Change in share from 2000
Mix KERRY BUSH Other
GENDER
Male 46 47 52 1 -2 Males shifted to Kerry from Bush?
Female 54 52 48 0 +3 Females shifted to Bush from Gore?
TOTAL 100 49.7 49.8 0.5
GENDER/RACE
WMale 33 42 57 1
WFemale 38 46 53 1
NWMale 13 59 40 1
NWFemale 16 64 36 0
TOTAL 100 49.3 49.9 0.8
RACE
White 70 44 55 1 -2 Whites move away from Bush?
Black 12 87 12 1 +5 Blacks shifted to Bush by 5%?
Hisp/Lat 15 46 54 0 +5 Hispanics shifted to Bush by 5%?
Asian 1 - - - -
Other 2 34 66 - -
TOTAL 100 48.8 49.4 0.8
AGE
18-29 17 60 39 1 -1
30-44 27 48 51 1 +1
45-59 28 44 55 1 +6 Baby boomers for Bush?
60+ 28 49 50 1 -1
TOTAL 100 49.2 49.8 1.0
18-64 81 49 50 1 2
65+ 19 51 49 0 -3
TOTAL 100 49.4 49.8 0.8
INCOME
<15k 9 61 38 1
15-30 15 61 37 2
30-50 22 53 46 1
50-75 21 47 52 1
75-100 14 40 60 0
100-150 10 46 54 0
150-200 4 41 58 1
200+ 5 43 56 1
TOTAL 100 50.2 48.9 0.9
<50k 46 57 42 1
50k+ 54 44 55 1
TOTAL 100 50.0 49.0 1.0
50-100 81 52 48 0
100+ 19 44 56 0
TOTAL 100 50.5 49.5 0.
EDUCATION
NoHS 3 55 43 2 -4
HighSch 20 53 47 0 5 Big Bush gain in HS Grads while losing the other 80%?
College 34 50 49 1 0
ColGrad 27 46 54 0 -3
PostGrad 16 48 51 1 -1
TOTAL 100 49.3 50.1 0.6
COLLEGE
No 57 52 48 0
Yes 43 46 53 1
TOTAL 100 49.4 50.2 0.4
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 20 82 16 2 -1
Moderate 47 59 41 0 -5 Big Moderate shift to Kerry
Conserv 33 14 85 1 8 Conservatives overwhelmed the Libs and Mods?
TOTAL 100 48.8 50.5 0.7
FIRST-TIME VOTER
Yes 13 58 41 1
No 87 48 51 1
TOTAL 100 49.3 49.7 1.0
RELIGION
Protestant 51 42 57 1 2
Catholic 27 45 55 0 3
Jewish 6 81 19 0 0
Other 6 71 28 1 -12
None 10 68 30 2 4 Atheists for Bush?
TOTAL 100 49.5 49.7 0.8
FINACIAL SITUATION
Better 34 16 84 0 48
Worse 28 87 12 1 -50
Same 38 51 48 1 -16
TOTAL 100 49.2 50.2 0.6
DID CANDIDATE CALL YOU?
Kerry 16 81 18 1
Bush 15 13 86 1
Both 20 57 43 1
None 49 48 51 1
TOTAL 100 49.8 49.4 1.0
POPULATION- 5 CATEGORIES
Urban 7 35 65 0
50-500k 19 50 49 1
Suburb 61 53 47 0
10-50k 9 45 54 1
Rural 4 34 66 0
TOTAL 100 49.7 50.0 0.3
POPULATION- 3 CATEGORIES
Urban 26 46 53 1 4 Bush Urban Legend?
Suburbs 61 52 48 0 1
Rural 13 42 57 1 1
TOTAL 100 49.1 50.5 0.4
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2000 Recorded Vote by County
County Precincts Total Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
Totals 5884 5963 2912 2913 17 97 24 48.83% 48.85% 0.29% 1.63%
Alachua 53 86 47 34 0 3 1 55.2% 39.8% 0.3% 3.8%
Baker 8 8 2 6 0 0 0 29.3% 68.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Bay 47 59 19 39 0 1 0 32.1% 65.7% 0.4% 1.4%
Bradford 21 9 3 5 0 0 0 35.5% 62.4% 0.7% 1.0%
Brevard 177 218 97 115 1 4 1 44.6% 52.7% 0.3% 2.0%
Broward 618 573 387 177 1 7 2 67.4% 30.9% 0.1% 1.2%
Calhoun 13 5 2 3 0 0 0 41.7% 55.5% 1.7% 0.8%
Charlotte 63 67 30 35 0 1 0 44.3% 53.0% 0.3% 2.2%
Citrus 35 57 26 30 0 1 0 44.6% 52.0% 0.5% 2.4%
Clay 51 57 15 42 0 1 0 25.5% 72.8% 0.3% 1.0%
Collier 96 92 30 60 0 1 0 32.5% 65.6% 0.1% 1.5%
Columbia 31 19 7 11 0 0 0 38.1% 59.2% 0.5% 1.4%
Miami-Dade 614 625 329 290 1 5 1 52.6% 46.3% 0.1% 0.9%
DeSoto 15 8 3 4 0 0 0 42.5% 54.5% 0.5% 2.0%
Dixie 11 5 2 3 0 0 0 39.1% 57.8% 0.6% 1.6%
Duval 268 265 108 152 1 3 1 40.8% 57.5% 0.2% 1.0%
Escambia 108 117 41 73 1 2 0 35.1% 62.6% 0.4% 1.5%
Flagler 27 27 14 13 0 0 0 51.3% 46.5% 0.3% 1.6%
Franklin 8 5 2 2 0 0 0 44.1% 52.8% 0.7% 1.8%
Gadsden 16 15 10 5 0 0 0 66.1% 32.4% 0.3% 0.9%
Gilchrist 10 5 2 3 0 0 0 35.4% 61.2% 0.5% 1.8%
Glades 13 3 1 2 0 0 0 42.9% 54.7% 0.3% 1.7%
Gulf 14 6 2 4 0 0 0 39.0% 57.8% 1.2% 1.4%
Hamilton 8 4 2 2 0 0 0 43.4% 54.1% 0.6% 0.9%
Hardee 12 6 2 4 0 0 0 37.5% 60.4% 0.5% 1.2%
Hendry 22 8 3 5 0 0 0 39.8% 58.3% 0.3% 1.3%
Hernando 51 65 33 31 0 2 0 50.1% 47.0% 0.4% 2.3%
Highlands 28 35 14 20 0 1 0 40.3% 57.5% 0.4% 1.6%
Hillsboro 320 360 170 181 1 7 2 47.1% 50.2% 0.2% 2.1%
Holmes 16 7 2 5 0 0 0 29.4% 67.8% 1.0% 1.3%
Indian River 41 50 20 29 0 1 0 39.8% 57.7% 0.2% 1.9%
Jackson 27 16 7 9 0 0 0 42.1% 56.1% 0.6% 0.8%
Jefferson 13 6 3 2 0 0 0 53.9% 43.9% 0.5% 1.3%
Lafayette 5 3 1 2 0 0 0 31.5% 66.7% 0.4% 1.0%
Lake 86 89 37 50 0 1 0 41.3% 56.5% 0.3% 1.6%
Lee 150 184 74 106 0 4 1 39.9% 57.6% 0.2% 1.9%
Leon 95 103 61 39 0 2 0 59.6% 37.9% 0.3% 1.9%
Levy 21 13 5 7 0 0 0 42.4% 53.9% 0.5% 2.2%
Liberty 8 2 1 1 0 0 0 42.2% 54.6% 1.6% 0.8%
Madison 11 6 3 3 0 0 0 48.9% 49.3% 0.5% 0.9%
Manatee 135 110 49 58 0 2 0 44.6% 52.6% 0.2% 2.3%
Marion 96 103 45 55 1 2 1 43.4% 53.6% 0.5% 1.8%
Martin 40 62 27 34 0 1 0 42.9% 54.8% 0.2% 1.8%
Monroe 33 34 16 16 0 1 0 48.7% 47.4% 0.1% 3.2%
Nassau 21 24 7 16 0 0 0 29.2% 69.0% 0.4% 1.1%
Okaloosa 48 71 17 52 0 1 0 24.0% 73.7% 0.4% 1.4%
Okeechobee 18 10 5 5 0 0 0 46.6% 51.3% 0.4% 1.3%
Orange 232 280 140 135 0 4 1 50.1% 48.1% 0.0% 1.4%
Osceola 66 56 28 26 0 1 0 50.6% 47.1% 0.3% 1.3%
Palm Beach 531 433 270 153 3 6 2 62.3% 35.3% 0.8% 1.3%
Pasco 132 143 70 69 1 3 1 48.7% 48.0% 0.4% 2.4%
Pinellas 345 398 201 185 1 10 2 50.3% 46.4% 0.3% 2.5%
Polk 163 169 75 90 1 2 1 44.6% 53.6% 0.3% 1.2%
Putnam 50 26 12 13 0 0 0 46.2% 51.3% 0.6% 1.4%
St. Johns 57 61 20 40 0 1 0 32.1% 65.1% 0.4% 2.0%
St. Lucie 78 78 42 35 0 1 0 53.3% 44.5% 0.2% 1.8%
Santa Rosa 36 50 13 36 0 1 0 25.4% 72.1% 0.6% 1.4%
Sarasota 142 161 73 83 0 4 1 45.3% 51.6% 0.2% 2.5%
Seminole 133 138 59 76 0 2 1 43.0% 55.0% 0.1% 1.4%
Sumter 24 22 10 12 0 0 0 43.3% 54.5% 0.5% 1.4%
Suwannee 16 12 4 8 0 0 0 32.8% 64.4% 0.9% 1.4%
Taylor 14 7 3 4 0 0 0 38.9% 59.6% 0.4% 0.9%
Union 11 4 1 2 0 0 0 36.8% 61.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Volusia 172 184 97 82 0 3 1 53.0% 44.8% 0.3% 1.6%
Wakulla 12 9 4 5 0 0 0 44.7% 52.5% 0.5% 1.7%
Walton 33 18 6 12 0 0 0 30.8% 66.5% 0.7% 1.4%
Washington 15 8 3 5 0 0 0 34.9% 62.3% 1.1% 1.2%
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2000 Recorded Vote by County
Adjusted for 175,000 uncounted ballots
Uncounted Votes (000):
Gore 126.3 72.1%
Bush 45.0 25.7
Nader 2.6 1.5
Buchanan 0.5 0.3
Other 0.7 0.4
Total 175.1 100%
(2.85% of 6138k total votes cast)
Allocating the uncounted ballots, Gore won Florida by a minimum of 80,000 votes (49.5-48.2%).
This is a conservative estimate as it does not include butterfly ballots or electronic vote miscounts.
Unctd Total Unctd% Adjusted Count (total votes cast) Adjusted Vote Share
Total Cast Total Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other Gore Bush
175 6138 2.85% 3039 2958 18 100 23 49.51% 48.19%
Alachua 0.33 86 0.38% 48 34 0.3 3.2 0.8 55.3% 39.8%
Baker 0.14 8 1.69% 2 6 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.1% 68.1%
Bay 0.66 59 1.11% 19 39 0.2 0.8 0.2 32.5% 65.3%
Bradford 0.73 9 7.80% 4 6 0.1 0.1 0.0 38.3% 59.6%
Brevard 1.03 219 0.47% 98 115 0.6 4.5 0.9 44.7% 52.6%
Broward 14.61 588 2.48% 397 181 0.8 7.3 1.7 67.5% 30.8%
Calhoun 0.08 5 1.49% 2 3 0.1 0.0 0.0 42.1% 55.1%
Charlotte 3.16 70 4.51% 32 36 0.2 1.5 0.2 45.6% 51.7%
Citrus 0.22 57 0.38% 26 30 0.3 1.4 0.3 44.7% 51.9%
Clay 0.15 58 0.27% 15 42 0.2 0.6 0.2 25.6% 72.6%
Collier 3.18 95 3.34% 32 61 0.1 1.4 0.3 33.8% 64.3%
Columbia 0.69 19 3.61% 8 11 0.1 0.3 0.2 39.3% 58.0%
Miami-Dade 28.60 654 4.37% 349 297 0.6 5.8 1.3 53.4% 45.4%
DeSoto 0.70 9 8.24% 4 4 0.0 0.2 0.0 45.0% 52.2%
Dixie 0.33 5 6.64% 2 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 41.3% 55.7%
Duval 26.91 292 9.23% 127 159 0.7 3.2 1.4 43.7% 54.5%
Escambia 4.37 121 3.61% 44 74 0.5 1.8 0.5 36.4% 61.3%
Flagler 0.06 27 0.23% 14 13 0.1 0.4 0.1 51.3% 46.5%
Franklin 0.42 5 8.28% 2 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 46.4% 50.6%
Gadsden 2.07 17 12.3% 11 5 0.0 0.2 0.1 66.8% 31.5%
Gilchrist 0.29 6 5.07% 2 3 0.0 0.1 0.1 37.3% 59.4%
Glades 0.37 4 9.98% 2 2 0.0 0.1 0.0 45.8% 51.8%
Gulf 0.41 7 6.27% 3 4 0.1 0.1 0.0 41.1% 55.8%
Hamilton 0.39 4 8.94% 2 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.0% 51.6%
Hardee 0.41 7 6.14% 3 4 0.0 0.1 0.0 39.7% 58.3%
Hendry 0.80 9 8.95% 4 5 0.0 0.1 0.0 42.7% 55.4%
Hernando 0.25 65 0.38% 33 31 0.2 1.5 0.2 50.1% 46.9%
Highlands 1.01 36 2.79% 15 20 0.1 0.6 0.1 41.2% 56.6%
Hillsboro 9.17 369 2.48% 176 183 0.9 7.6 1.7 47.7% 49.6%
Holmes 0.14 8 1.84% 2 5 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.2% 67.0%
Indian River 1.94 52 3.76% 21 29 0.1 1.0 0.2 41.1% 56.5%
Jackson 1.16 17 6.63% 8 9 0.1 0.2 0.1 44.1% 54.0%
Jefferson 0.57 6 9.22% 3 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 55.6% 42.2%
Lafayette 0.17 3 6.39% 1 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.1% 64.0%
Lake 3.61 92 3.92% 39 51 0.3 1.5 0.3 42.5% 55.2%
Lee 4.57 189 2.42% 77 107 0.3 3.7 0.8 40.7% 56.8%
Leon 0.18 103 0.18% 62 39 0.3 1.9 0.4 59.6% 37.9%
Levy 0.76 13 5.64% 6 7 0.1 0.3 0.1 44.1% 52.3%
Liberty 0.19 3 7.24% 1 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4% 52.6%
Madison 0.48 7 7.23% 3 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 50.6% 47.6%
Manatee 1.41 112 1.26% 50 58 0.3 2.5 0.3 45.0% 52.2%
Marion 3.35 106 3.15% 47 56 0.6 1.9 0.8 44.3% 52.7%
Martin 0.61 63 0.97% 27 34 0.1 1.1 0.2 43.2% 54.5%
Monroe 0.18 34 0.53% 17 16 0.0 1.1 0.2 48.8% 47.3%
Nassau 1.58 25 6.28% 8 17 0.1 0.3 0.1 31.9% 66.3%
Okaloosa 0.77 71 1.07% 17 52 0.3 1.0 0.4 24.5% 73.2%
Okeechobee 0.86 11 8.01% 5 5 0.0 0.1 0.0 48.6% 49.3%
Orange 2.40 278 0.86% 142 135 0.0 3.9 1.1 50.3% 47.9%
Osceola 1.68 57 2.94% 29 27 0.1 0.8 0.4 51.3% 46.5%
Palm Beach 29.70 457 6.49% 291 161 3.5 6.0 1.6 62.9% 34.7%
Pasco 3.92 147 2.67% 72 70 0.6 3.5 0.6 49.4% 47.5%
Pinellas 8.49 407 2.09% 207 187 1.0 10.1 2.0 50.8% 46.0%
Polk 0.90 170 0.53% 76 91 0.5 2.1 0.5 44.7% 53.4%
Putnam 0.17 26 0.64% 12 13 0.1 0.4 0.1 46.3% 51.1%
St. Johns 3.24 64 5.06% 22 40 0.2 1.3 0.3 34.1% 63.1%
St. Lucie 0.34 78 0.43% 42 35 0.1 1.4 0.2 53.4% 44.4%
Santa Rosa 0.37 51 0.72% 13 36 0.3 0.7 0.2 25.8% 71.8%
Sarasota 0.56 162 0.35% 73 83 0.3 4.1 0.6 45.4% 51.5%
Seminole 0.65 138 0.47% 60 76 0.2 2.0 0.6 43.1% 54.8%
Sumter 0.76 23 3.31% 10 12 0.1 0.3 0.1 44.2% 53.5%
Suwannee 0.73 13 5.56% 5 8 0.1 0.2 0.1 34.9% 62.2%
Taylor 0.60 7 8.09% 3 4 0.0 0.1 0.0 41.6% 56.8%
Union 0.26 4 6.32% 2 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.0% 58.8%
Volusia 0.50 184 0.27% 98 82 0.5 2.9 0.6 53.0% 44.8%
Wakulla 0.42 9 4.68% 4 5 0.0 0.2 0.0 46.0% 51.3%
Walton 0.22 19 1.18% 6 12 0.1 0.3 0.1 31.3% 66.0%
Washington 0.33 8 3.94% 3 5 0.1 0.1 0.0 36.4% 60.8%
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
See continuation for:
County Vote changes from 2000 by Machine Type
Democratic County Vote and Registration Shares
Florida Democratic and Republican Registration Shares
County Presidential Vote vs. Registration (as of Feb. 9, 2004)
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