Michigan Primary Thread

[livvy]

Feel free to add to this thread.



Edit: Michigan is holding an open primary. Anyone can vote, after showing picture ID, or signing an affidavit certifying that you are the registered voter you claim to be. You must choose a Republican or a Democratic ballot.

The candidates on the Democratic ballot are very limited due to Michigan jumping ahead of the accepted primary dates.
The choices are:

Clinton
Dodd
Gravel
Kucinich
Write-in
Uncommitted

Obama, Edwards, Biden, and Richardson withdrew their names after Michigan made the decision to jump ahead. Kucinich tried to withdraw his name, also, but filed too late, I believe. All candidates agreed not to campaign in the state before the primary, although Kucinich has appeared at several locations in the state. At this time Michigan Dem delegates will not be seated at the convention.

The Republican ballot is complete. At this time 50% of their delegates will be seated at their convention.

edited edit because I can't spell.

[skipos]

1. Go uncommitted!!! You can do it!!! You have the momentum!!! I believe in you!!! nt

[indigonation]

2. I just voted for Mittens in the MI primary.

:puke:

Even up to the last minute, I struggled with the dilemma :dilemma: of how I planned to vote.
I wasn't voting for Hillary because she should have pulled her name off the ballot too.

But other than Kos' urging, here's why:
Romney is polling in 4th or 5th nationally and the polls show he can't beat Hillary or Obama.
The pukes are terrified of a Romney win.
http://michaelmedved.townhall.com/blog/g/56375486-5a44-49eb-b0ff-7002afd5d0bf

At least I feel my vote will count for something. Besides, I'm an independent, I can vote for whomever the hell I want.
F*cking with the Repuklicons is enough for me.
:patriot:

[skipos]

3. A strategic vote!

Do you know anyone else who did it?

[indigonation]

4. Not yet! /nt

[livvy]

5. General Statistics

The 2006 estimated population for Michigan was 10,095,643.

The breakdown for the population is:
Female: 50.8%
White: 81.2%
African American: 14.3%
Asian: 2.4%
Hispanic or Latino: 3.9%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons: 0.6%

The largest county by population is Wayne County which includes the city of Detroit. Population: 951,270.

The smallest towns have populations as low as 220.

There are 83 counties.

The majority of the population lives in the Lower Peninsula, in the mid to southern part of the peninsula.

There were 7,164,047 registered voters in 2004 with a turnout rate of 64.7% in the 2004 election.

In 2000, there were 6,859,332 with a turnout rate of 58.2.

Our governor is Jennifer Granholm (D).

[livvy]

12. Table of registered voters by county

The document seems to be copy protected or something??? I tried to post it here, but I couldn't do it. Here is the link:

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/County_Total_Voters_221470_7.pdf

[Viva_La_Revolution]

6. link to a results page...

http://www.20dc.com/miprimary.php

[indigonation]

7. Thanks!

[livvy]

8. Voting Equipment

All of Michigan uses paper ballots marked either by marker or pen and counted by precinct based optical scan systems.

All but 28 counties use either Premier Election Solutions (Diebold) AccuVote, or ES&S M 100 voting systems. The remaining 28 counties use Sequoia Optech machines.

Each polling place has at least one ES&S Automark machine for the disabled, although anyone can use them if they would like.

There are no HCPB, with the exception of counting write-in votes.

[livvy]

9. Past Election Problems

The only detailed info I was able to find with past problems were from this site from the '04 election:

http://www.flcv.com/michigan.html

A variety of problems were presented, including voter intimidation; long lines due to multiple precincts in a single polling location, machines breaking down or not registering votes correctly, and a shortage of machines; misinformation distributed as far as polling locations; poorly trained or confused poll workers, and a variety of dirty tricks before and during the election in the metropolitan areas.

See the link above for details.

[livvy]

10. Polls n/t

[livvy]

19. Pre-Primary- 1/9-1/12

Pollster.com 2008 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary
(see also 2008 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary)

Tables and graphs at link.

The names of John Edwards and Barack Obama will not appear on the Michigan Democratic ballot, although Michigan Democrats will have the option of voting for an "uncommitted" slate of delegates.

As such, the most recent polls in Michigan altered their vote question to match the actual ballot and the results are no longer comparable to those we had charted below. Given the shift, we have stopped updating the chart and table below as of the last poll release in early December that included all candidates. We will update the table above with any new polls.

http://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

RealClearPolitics - interesting...they don't include Kucinich in the numbers. It's just Clinton against the uncommitted.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_democratic_primary-238.html


Zogby

Released: January 15, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain, Romney Nose-to-Nose in Michigan



Utica, New York - Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical dead heat on the eve of the Republican primary election in Michigan, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows.

The survey shows McCain with a tiny 27% to 26% edge over Romney, with Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee a distant third at 15% support. About 8% of voters said they were undecided – a potentially critical factor in such a close election.

There will be no official Democratic primary because of a spat between the state party organization and the Democratic National Committee.

Romney kept his lead in Detroit with 31% support, compared to McCain’s 26% backing, but McCain beats Romney soundly in the more sparsely populated Peninsula region, 32% to 13%. McCain also leads by 10 points in the conservative western part of the state, and the two are tied in the central region. Huckabee, meanwhile, has about 18% support in the west and central parts of the state, and 11% in Detroit and the peninsula.

Statewide, women favor McCain over Romney, 30% to 26%. Among men, McCain gets 24% support, compared to Romney’s 26%. The sexes seem to like Huckabee equally - he has support from 16% of men and 14% of women.

>more
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1421

[livvy]

20. Exit Polls n/t

[livvy]

21. Liveblogging the Michigan primary results

Liveblogging the Michigan primary results
Welcome to your post-New Hampshire prediction free primary coverage
January 15, 2008 7:04 PM
A busy night for politics tonight. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards (Dennis Kucinich was barred) debate in Las Vegas and, simultaneously, the Michigan primary results are in.


snip

7.30pm: Early exit polls are in. Voters are saying the most important issues are the economy (55%), Iraq (18%), illegal immigration (14%) and terrorism (10%). Turnout is 68% Republican, 25% independent with the remainder registered Democrats. Independents made up 35% of the vote in 2000.

This will keep updating.

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/usa/2008/01/liveblogging_the_michigan_prim.html

[livvy]

22. Early Michigan Exit Poll Results

Home / News / Nation
Early Michigan exit poll results

By The Associated Press
January 15, 2008
Highlights from preliminary results of exit polling in Michigan's presidential primaries Tuesday for The Associated Press and television networks:

.snip

In all, the exit poll indicated seven in 10 voters Tuesday opted to vote in the Republican primary. Among those who did vote on the Democratic side, more than three in four called themselves Democrats.

IT'S THE ECONOMY ... AT LEAST IN MICHIGAN

Given four choices, half of Michigan Republican primary voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation -- compared to just 26 percent in the Iowa GOP caucuses and 31 percent in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Its auto industry ailing, Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Among the other choices, one in five picked Iraq, one in seven said immigration and one in 10 called terrorism the country's most important issue.

On a different question, only three in 10 Michigan GOP voters rated the nation's economy excellent or good, compared to half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

ON OTHER ISSUES ...

Among Michigan Republican primary voters:

-- six in 10 say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases

-- a similar number approve of the war in Iraq

-- a little more than half say it should be higher priority for the next president to reduce the budget deficit rather than cut taxes

THAT DEMOCRATIC NON-CONTEST ...

Barack Obama and John Edwards withdrew from the ballot amid a dispute over seating Michigan's Democratic delegates. "Uncommitted" was an option on the ballot against Hillary Rodham Clinton and several lower-tier candidates. Younger voters, college graduates, blacks and voters in bigger cities were more likely than other groups to vote uncommitted.

And if Democrats had a full ballot to choose from, nearly three-quarters of those who voted uncommitted told exit pollsters they would have voted for Obama and many of the rest said Edwards. Of course those results are only among those who were motivated to go to the Democratic primary and vote uncommitted.

Preliminary results from exit poll by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks. Partial samples in 40 precincts around Michigan of 873 voters in the Republican primary and 588 in the Democratic contest. Sampling error plus or minus 5 percentage points in each primary.



http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/15/early_michigan_exit_poll_results/

[livvy]

35. Full Exit Poll results CNN

Totals by questions asked, gender, age, and their candidate choice, etc.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MIDEM

[livvy]

11. Results

Results will be posted as they become available, after the 8:00 pm (EST) close of the polls.

Secretary of State site:

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/08PPR/

Total Voters by County
http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/08PPR/COUNTYVT.html

By District with Candidate breakdown:
http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/08PPR/25.HTM

[livvy]

23. CNN 8:49 EST

With 4% reporting:

Romney 35%
McCain 32%
Huck 17%


Clinton 62%
Uncommitted 32%

[livvy]

24. CNN 9:00 EST With 9% Declares Romney w/37%

None of the other candidates (Rep) are shown on this screen.

Clinton 61
Uncommitted 34


ooops, sorry, here's the link again, and still the other candidates % are not shown.
http://www.cnn.com/

[livvy]

25. CNN Full results 9:14

And I am shocked...:sarcasm: Clinton projected the winner.

Charts at link...updated every minute.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MI

[livvy]

26. Some results are starting to come in on the SOS site.

Upper Peninsula Counties

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/08PPR/25001000.html

[livvy]

33. State Primary Delegate, Vote Totals

State primary delegate, vote totals
by The Associated Press
Wednesday January 16, 2008, 1:57 AM
Republican primary
• Mitt Romney 23 delegates, 337,847 (39%)
• John McCain 6 delegates, 257,521 (30%)
• Mike Huckabee 1 delegate, 139,699 (16%)
• Ron Paul 54,434 (6%)
• Fred Thompson 32,135 (4%
• Rudy Giuliani 24,706 (3%)
• Uncommitted 17,971 (2%)
• Duncan Hunter 2,823 (0%)
• Tom Tancredo 458 (0%)
• Sam Brownback 354 (0%)

Democratic primary
• Hillary Clinton 328,151 (55%)
• Uncommitted 236,723 (40%)
• Dennis Kucinich 21,708 (4%)
• Chris Dodd 3,853 (1%)
• Mike Gravel 2,363 (0%)
(Note: The state has been stripped of all its Democratic delegates.)


http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/01/state_primary_delegates_vote_t.html

[livvy]

34. Unofficial Results posted at MI SOS Wed. 1/16 6:30am EST

This is a large file. It shows totals for all counties and the breakdown within each county by city/township,etc., and the totals for each candidate.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/08PPR/08PPRall.html

[livvy]

13. News articles n/t

[livvy]

14. Romney Fans Worry About Skewed Election

Romney fans worry about skewed election
by Dave Murray | The Grand Rapids Press
Tuesday January 15, 2008, 10:51 AM

GRAND RAPIDS - Mitt Romney made a final appeal to voters today, saying he is filled with confidence about his campaign and the nation.
Some of his supporters, however, were lowering expectations for today's Republican presidential primary election, saying results could be skewed by Democrats crossing party lines and voting for Arizona Sen. John McCain.

"We should do well in Michigan and would do well in a real Republican primary, but I expect to see a lot of Democrats," said U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, before Romney spoke to about 150 people at a morning rally at Compatico headquarters on 44th Street SE.

Hoekstra said Romney could still run "a viable campaign" even if he loses Michigan, which the former Massachusetts governor calls a second home state.

"If we were to lose a Republican state with a real Republican primary, I'd have trouble finding a silver lining in that," he said.

>more



http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/01/romney_fans_worry_about_skewed.html

[livvy]

15. Little to No Waiting at Polls Across Metro Detroit

ELECTION 2008

Little to no waiting at polls across metro Detroit
January 15, 2008

FREE PRESS STAFF REPORTS


It's Michigan's turn today to choose the presidential candidates. Here's a sampling of scenes at polling places, as voters pick their favorites.

Precinct 2 in Hamtramck awaits post-work crowd

THE PLACE: Precinct 2, District 2 in Hamtramck, in St. Ladislaus gymnasium.
THE TIME: 3 p.m.
THE SCENE: 90 people so far.
52% Democrat
20% Republican
28% Didn’t have list a party.
A poll worker said, “It’s been very slow today, and we’ll probably have a stronger after-work crowd. Then we should get into the 100s. “
There was no one waiting in line. The gym was empty aside for three poll workers.

Pacing picking up in three Detroit precincts
THE PLACE: Three Detroit precincts at Unitarian Church on Cass (near WSU)
THE TIME: 12:50 p.m.
THE SCENE:
District 11, Precinct 19:
One poll worker said, “It’s been pretty steady. It did pick up once the snow stopped, around 10 and 11,” and added, “The majority of voters have been Democrats, but we’re at 63 total.”

District 11, Precinct 20:
So far 40 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and 2 no parties.

District 10, Precinct 5:
21 Democrats, no Republicans, 2 no parties.




http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/NEWS15/80115029

[livvy]

16. Primary Proceeds With Cloud Hanging Over Democrats' Ballot

Primary proceeds with cloud hanging over Democrats' ballot
Posted by Julie Mack | Kalamazoo Gazette January 15, 2008 09:45AM

KALAMAZOO -- Lorraine deBaptiste said she was "very impressed" by John McCain's appearance here Monday during a campaign rally at Kalamazoo Christian High School.

But the Paw Paw resident still doesn't know how she's going to vote today.

"I liked what he said about securing the borders and supporting our soldiers," deBaptiste said. "But there's also things I like about Romney and Huckabee. I need to do a lot more research."

Both Republicans and Democrats are at the polls today, but it's the GOP contest that's getting the national attention with a tight contest between McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

A win in Michigan is particularly coveted by Romney and McCain supporters -- Romney needs a win after second-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, and McCain needs to build on the momentum created by his New Hampshire victory.

The Democratic primary has been derailed by a fight between the state and national parties because Michigan moved up its primary date in violation of party rules.

>more


http://blog.mlive.com/kzgazette/2008/01/primary_proceeds_with_cloud_ha.html

[livvy]

18. Across Michigan, Light Turnout and Some Upset Voters

ELECTION 2008

Across Michigan, light turnout and some upset voters
January 15, 2008

By JOHN WISELY, KATHLEEN GRAY and JENNIFER DIXON

FREE PRESS STAFF WRITERS

Around metro Detroit and across the state, turnout has been so low for the presidential primary that some clerks predict the majority of votes will come from absentee ballots.

Clerks say snowy weather and a non-race on the Democratic side have kept numbers down.

In Detroit, about 20,000 people had voted at polling places around the city by mid-afternoon. An additional 23,000 absentee ballots were cast by Election Day, said city Elections Director Daniel Baxter.

That represents less than 10% of the voters in the city, he said. “With the snow and in January, it’s still really dark out at 7 a.m., so maybe we’ll get 15 to 20%.”


Voters weren’t complaining about not being able to write in their favorite Democratic candidate because two of the front-runners — Barack Obama and John Edwards — withdrew their names from the ballot.


But several were upset about having to ask for a political party-specific ballot, which would identify if they had voted Republican or Democratic.


“Some voters thought that was unconstitutional,” Baxter said. “And they ended up voting under protest.”


.more

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/NEWS15/80115075

[livvy]

17. Open thread at Michigan Liberal

Lots of updates and reports from people around Michigan as far as turnouts, problems encountered, etc.

http://www.michiganliberal.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=11150


Edit: new thread started as polls close

http://www.michiganliberal.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=11162

[EFerrari]

27. Thank you, livvy!

:loveya:

[livvy]

28. You're welcome! I'll add to this thread tomorrow.

I heard something about some problems with the machines in some counties not recording the uncommitted votes. I'll look into it tomorrow, when I'm more awake.

Night all!

[EFerrari]

29. During the MSNBC coverage, Keith said that initially 20 counties

couldn't give the DEMOCRATIC "uncommitted" vote totals because of a programming error.

It's late now, and my searches have come up empty. I DO have the Tivo though, so in case anyone wants to haul me away, please tell my mom the evidence is in the box.

Holy cow.

[livvy]

30. News articles- post primary n/t

[livvy]

31. Poll: Crossover Vote Limited

Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Poll: Crossover vote limited

Results show Romney decisive pick of GOP voters, who cast over 60% of ballots
Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau

Michigan Republican primary winner Mitt Romney's victory here was pervasive -- he had an advantage over his competition in virtually every demographic category except Democrats and independents, according to National Election Pool exit polling.

snip

Exit polling also shows fears of a large crossover vote deciding the contentious Republican primary were not realized.

The electorate in the GOP contest was predominantly Republican, one-quarter independent and only 7 percent Democratic.

>more details



http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080116/POLITICS01/801160422

[livvy]

32. Clinton Coasts to Democratic Victory

Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Clinton coasts to Democratic victory
The New York senator captures majority of votes, but 'uncommitted' gets 39 percent of tally.
Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton won the Michigan Democratic primary Tuesday, easily outpolling the "uncommitted" vote, but partisans are quarreling over whether she drew enough support to spare embarrassment.

With 89 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton took 56 percent of the vote to 39 percent for uncommitted, which is essentially a vote for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who pulled their names off the ballot in deference to party rules and urged their supporters to vote uncommitted.

According to the National Election Pool exit poll, if all the leading candidates were on the ballot, Clinton would have won in Michigan by a double-digit margin among the small sample of Democrats who actually participated in Tuesday's primary, the exit poll shows.

But Obama may regret not having entered the race here. The what-if survey shows he would have finished a solid second with 34 percent to Clinton's 48 percent, even among a limited primary electorate that likely attracted more Clinton voters. Edwards would have been well behind in third at 12 percent, according to the exit poll. About three-quarters of uncommitted voters would have gone for Obama, the survey says.

Some political analysts said Clinton could only claim a convincing victory here if she polled more than 60 percent, since she was the only leading candidate on the ballot. But Clinton backers rejected that notion.

>more

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080116/POLITICS01/801160417

[livvy]

36. Looking for details about the problem with the machines not...

recording votes correctly. If anyone finds any info today, please post it here.

Must go to work now, but will check back after my 26 ten-year-olds set me free. It's tough to have to work for a living when one has other things they'd rather do...like track down this report about machine glitches!!

Any help appreciated.

[EFerrari]

37. Thanks, livvy.

The odd thing is that Keith used it as a teaser and as far as I could tell, they never went back to it. I endured two HOURS of Tweety, lol, to see if they would.

[EFerrari]

38. I called the MI Secretary of State's Office and spoke to one of their

"election specialists".

She confirmed that there was a problem in about twenty counties where Diebold scanners were counting Democratic Uncommitted votes as "Write In" votes.

At first she said they hand counted the ballots when the problem was found but later she said some locations were able to reprogram and some went to hand counts.