Why is Tweety saying the NH primary results didn't match the *exit * polls?

[bleever]

I can't find anything to that effect, but I've been sick and distracted. Anyone know?

[ORDagnabbit]

1. here ya go

news orgs are changing their exit polling stats to match results


Sen. Barack Obama: 39%.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/exit-poll-obama.html

[bleever]

2. Do you know where the info about which precincts

counted by hand and which counted by Diebold comes from?

[ORDagnabbit]

3. yeah theres a breakdown of it on a number of sites...lemme track it down for ya

[ORDagnabbit]

4. heres a little more info

http://presscue.com/node/38034

[Stevepol]

7. Muchos gracias ORDag. Great stats. Where did you get them?

[ORDagnabbit]

8. The original chart is from dailykos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/9/181852/2086

I've been going through and verifying with other sites on the raw data.

like this

obama 39% exit polling
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/exit-poll-obama.html

[bleever]

11. That Kos link is dead.

Scrubbed?

[ORDagnabbit]

6. I think I got it

scroll down a bit and it identifies which one hand counted.

http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS

[bleever]

9. Thanks. I'll see if I can find the original source of the breakdown of

counting techniques by township. So far, I've found a txt file on the blackboxvoting site and what's on the ronrox site, but no direct attribution.

I want to track that down, because this is about the only thing that's struck me as potentially interesting about the NH poll discrepancies.

[mhatrw]

13. Here is the correct breakdown.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4009174

[Drunken Irishman]

5. It reminds me of Ohio '04 all over again.

Hand count favored Kerry, electronic count favored Bush.

Not suggesting anything, but it is interesting.

[althecat]

10. Great graphic where is it from?

[bleever]

12. At this point I haven't been able to confirm

anything beyond the fact that this story tracks back to one or maybe two original outlets, being Bev Harris' BBV and a Ron Paul site.

I remain skeptical, but if we can get source material on the vote totals and counting technique by precinct it will be easy to prove or disprove. If the story were annotated in the most basic way, it would be straightforward.


ed: Does mean I'm less informed than Chris Matthews?