Where did Bush get nine million new voters from?

[Ediacara]

In four short years, that's an 18% increase in his vote totals. Is that really possible?

Are they Gore voters? I don't know a single Gore (or Nader) voter who voted for Bush this time around, but do exit polls show otherwise? And do they show a nine million voter otherwise?

Are they new voters that love the flight suit? I can't imagine that they would be.

Are they the phantom evangelicals that Rove was courting so strongly? Were there really nine million non-voting evangelicals? I find this equally hard to believe because evangelicals are one of the most politically active constituencies in the GOP, and to claim that they didn't vote before is just silly.

Or are they software glitches?

I'm genuinely curious. I'll be willing to admit that perhaps 250,000 Gore voters had a brain tumor on 2 November, and that another 250,000 new voters actually went to Bush, and maybe Rove found his 3,000,000 non-voting evangelicals.

So where did the other five and a half million people come from?

[revree]

1. They popped out of Karl Rove's ass...

They only exist in touchscreen voting land!

[okieinpain]

2. The Sim's. Funny.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Look. We have to admit the fact that some Gore voters switched to Bush

while Bush had his own defections. This is something the exit polls DID show happened.

[Ediacara]

4. how much?

Look, I've been out of the loop for a week. What kind of numbers were defecting to Bush? Nine million? How about numbers defecting to Kerry?

[rabid_nerd]

6. Ed Kock

nt

[liberal_in_GA]

9. The stats I heard

were 11 % of Shrub voters from 2000 switched to Kerry, while 7% of Gore voters switched to Shrub.

[Ediacara]

13. Ok, so that's

3.5M Gore voters to Bush, and 5.5M Bush voters to Kerry.

Which is -2M Bush voters.

So we're now asking ourselves where did Bush get ELEVEN MILLION new voters?

[glugglug]

11. I know of not one Gore voter who switched

Everyone who hated dubya before 2001 hates him more now.
I know of A LOT of Bushvoters who switched since then.

I am thoroughly convinced that George Bush DID NOT get 9 million new voters, maybe a few 100k people switched to him, but many millions moved away from him. There is no way this election was anything but a landslide for Kerry.

[aquart]

31. Yeah? Prove it. Because this is total garbage.

[Cobalt Violet]

5. Electronic Voting, n/t

[liberal N proud]

7. They had to vote extra votes to insure the machines would work

so they thought they would give them to bush just to make sure.

[Karenina]

43. FRAUD.

[coloradodem2005]

8. Another portion could be...

...evangelicals that did ot vote last time that voted this time because they see Bush as a Christian leader.

[Nadienne]

12. Or because they knew this would be close

and so they had to contribute their vote...

[Ediacara]

14. But were there really eleven million?

[johnnie]

10. Considering his approval ratings never really were that high

With the exception of September 2001, bush never had high ratings. Then all of a sudden he gained a shitload on Nov 2nd. Go figure.

[Ducks In A Row]

15. They're all **'s imaginary friends

[AmyCrat]

16. Simple Math

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x41029

[althecat]

17. My attempt to find where he got those votes.. found most of em

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=19390&mesg_id=19390duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=19390&mesg_id=19390

[nolabels]

18. Kick

Thanks althecat

[Ediacara]

19. So your conclusion is software glitch?

[althecat]

22. No...

My guess is widespread electronic voting fraud.

[Ediacara]

24. software glitch

is a euphemism I'm using for widespread electronic voting fraud...

[althecat]

25. aha....

You are fluent in WashingtonPost speak then.

[crickets]

41. Al, you are doing a wonderful job

Thank you for all of your hard work.

[althecat]

45. Thanks crickets...

I have just posted a pile load of new VOTE FRAUD articles on Scoop too...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/news/scoops.html

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Reagan cranked up by 10.5 million in 1984

Now I ask, is Bush as popular a dude as Reagan ever was?

1980 (VAP turnout = 52.8%)
REAGAN 43,898,770 (50.8%)
CARTER 35,480,948 (41.0%)
ANDERSON 5,719,222 (6.6%)
CLARK 920,049 (1.1%)
Others 477,862 (0.6%)
total votes cast: 86,496,851

1984 (VAP turnout = 53.3%)
REAGAN 54,451,521 (58.8%)
MONDALE 37,565,334 (40.5%)
Others 624,187 (0.7%)
total votes cast: 92,641,042

http://presidentelect.org/e1980.html
http://presidentelect.org/e1984.html
http://elections.gmu.edu/NES_Bias.htm

[Ediacara]

23. It's a different situation

Reagan won in a landslide in 1984, and the national totals only increased 7% from the previous year.

In 2004, the election was not a landslide, with most defections actually going TO Kerry (by a 2 million vote margin apparently). Additionally, the national totals increased by 14% from the previous year.

My question still stands, where did Bush get eleven million* new voters from? Were there really eleven million non-voting evangelicals? Were 11M undecideds really that frightened by Dick Cheney? I really don't understand what was going on, the numbers simply don't make any sense.

*I have increased the number from 9M to 11M, because apparently Gore to Bush defections were at 3.5M, but Bush to Kerry defections were at 5.5M, a 2M vote deficit from Bush's 2000 totals (50.5M + 3.5M - 5.5M = 48.5M; 59.5M - 48.5M = 11M new voters).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. If you can make a good case for these numbers then great

I don't know how you estinmated defections though. It is conceivable Bush had a lot more than what you say.

[Ediacara]

34. Upthread

It was reported that Bush lost 11% of his 2000 voters to Kerry, and Gore lost 7% of his 2000 voters to Bush.

0.11 x 50.5M = 5.5M votes Bush lost/Kerry gained.

0.07 x 51.0M = 3.5M votes Bush gained/Gore (Kerry) lost.

Giving Kerry a 2M vote advantage from the start.

You're right though, I have not verrified those defection numbers, and they could be wrong. If we take them at face value however, something really weird is going on.

[WI_DEM]

21. Kerry got roughly six million more votes than Gore

Vote totals were up dramatically this year.

[Ediacara]

28. Aparently 2M of those were the net Bush defections*

Maybe I'm just being dense or overly optomistic for our side, but in the highest turnout election in the history of the country (numerically), we only gained 3-4M new voters, and Bush somehow gained 3-4x as many?

I simply don't understand where the combination of previously apathetic evangelicals and scared shitless undecided voters adds up to 11M.

Am I missing something?

*3.5M Gore votes to Bush, 5.5M Bush votes to Kerry, giving Kerry +2M votes over Gore's previous total. In other words, Kerry had a "previous voter" base of 53M, and Bush of 48.5M.

[aquart]

32. You're missing outright fraud.

The Miracle of the Religious Bigots did NOT happen.

Fraud happened.

[RaulVB]

27. I couldn't find your thread earlier

Sorry, I opened a new one but your question are extremely important and NEED TO BE ANSWERED by the DNC leadership.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. Clinton up by 2.5 million, Eisenhower up by 1.8 million

Very interesting about Clinton, in fact I might start this as its own thread.

1992 (VAP turnout = 55.0%)
Clinton 44,909,326 (43.0%)
George Herbert Walker Bush 39,103,882 (37.4%)
Perot 19,741,657 (18.9%)
Others 670,149 (0.6%)

1996 (VAP turnout = 48.9%)
Clinton 47,401,898 (49.2%)
Robert Joseph Dole 39,198,482 (40.7%)
Henry Ross Perot 8,085,373 (8.4%)
Others 1,704,065 (1.8%)

1952 (VAP turnout = 61.6%)
EISENHOWER 33,778,963 (54.9%)
STEVENSON 27,314,992 (44.4%)
Others 457,964 (0.7%)

1956 (VAP turnout = 59.3%)
EISENHOWER 35,581,003 (57.6%)
STEVENSON 25,738,765 (41.6%)
Others 539,873 (0.9%)

[aquart]

30. It's the Miracle of the Religious Bigots.

[jsamuel]

33. Let me give it a try...

Ok, lets just look at the situation of where votes came from.

Bush got 9 Million more votes this time than in 2000. Some people have seen this and went, “how did that happen?” In response many people say, “Gore people went to Bush.” That is true. So, how many went to Bush? The number that is pretty much in every poll (exit or otherwise) is 7% of Gore voters voted for Bush.

Ok, so Bush picked up 7%. Wait, but those same polls say 11% of Bush voters switched to Kerry. Great, now Bush got 11 Million more votes that are unaccounted for.

That would mean that 11 Million NEW voters decided to vote for an incumbent. While that is possible, it goes against everything we know about Presidential elections. Even if it were true, where did the 11 Million come from? To take it straight from the Rove’s mouth, it came from Evangelical Christians. So, according to that theory 11 Million NEW Evangelical Christians decided to vote for Bush. The only problem with that is that there are only 4 Million (according to Rove) in the country and 2 Million of them voted for Bush last time.

So, we are back to 9 Million NEW extra votes for Bush… Anyone care to give it a try?

John

[RaulVB]

35. Impossible

It will contradict the history of American electoral trends.

When Johnson defeated Goldwater, and that was a massive defeat for the Republicans, the shift in popular vote moved closely to Bush's numbers.

Same thing after Nixon defeated, destroyed, McGovern.

You see, Bush's 04 "miracle" ranks THIRD!

Is just impossible and didn't take place, unfortunately for Rove, that now has to explain how they did it with ONLY 4 million of evangelical christians.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

36. Wow. The evidence is RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF US!

This is an incredible line of thought. The numbers are simply impossible if we can prove the defection ratios.

[jsamuel]

37. It is amazing... all that without giving Nader votes to Kerry too

[RaulVB]

38. Correct

THAT IS THE KEY.

And I want James "friggin" Carville to show me HOW THE REPUBLICAN VOTE BREAKS DOWN.

Can anybody call the "TV pundit" married to Mary Matalin?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

39. Article supporting this BS

http://www.newhousenews.com/archive/tilove111104.html

[RaulVB]

40. Guess what...

Their numbers are based in "exit polls".

[AgadorSparticus]

42. hackers?

[Carolab]

44. Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia

among others

[NewYorkerfromMass]

46. SO how we doing on this question? (kick)

[deadparrot]

47. The short answer? He didn't. eom

[idiosyncratic]

48. It could only be FRAUD. I know * voters who voted for Kerry.

I sure don't know any Nader or Gore voters who voted for *.