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Fire up your Excel spreadsheets: The Election Fraud Probability Quiz

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 09:45 PM
Original message
Fire up your Excel spreadsheets: The Election Fraud Probability Quiz
Edited on Fri Jan-14-05 10:33 PM by TruthIsAll
The Election Fraud Probability Quiz

If you have Excel, the probability functions will come in handy.
If you are a naysayer with Excel, blame Bill Gates.

If you don't have Excel, you can still guess.

1.Bush's vote tallies in FL exceeded his exit poll percentage by 3%. Based on 2846 individuals polled, the margin of error was 1.84%.
What are the odds?
Probability = 1 - Normdist(.51,.48,.0184/1.96,true)

a)1 out of 1165
b)1 out of 1433
c)1 out of 2359


2.Bushs vote tallies in OH exceeded his exit poll percentage by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals polled, the margin of error was 2.21%.
What are the odds?
Probability =1 - Normdist(.51,.48,.0221/1.96,true)

a)1 out of 256
b)1 out of 567
c)1 out of 772

3. Bushs vote tallies exceeded his exit poll percentage in 41 out of 50 states.
What are the odds?
Hint: It's 1 - the probability that this could occur in at MOST 40 states.
Probability = 1- Binomdist (40, 50, .5, true)

a) 1 out of 136,000
b) 1 out of 356,000
c) 1 out of 456,000

4. Bushs vote tallies exceeded the exit poll margin of error in 16 states.
What are the odds?
Hint:
It is 1 - the probability that it would occur in at MOST 15 states.
Probability = 1 Binomdist(15, 51, .025,true)

a) 1 out of 13.5 million
b) 1 out of 13.5 billion
c) 1 out of 13.5 trillion

5. Bushs vote tallies exceeded his exit poll margin by more than 2.0% in 23 states.
What are the odds?
Probability = 1 Binomdist(22, 51, .025,true)

a)1 out of 17.8 billion
b)Less than 1 out of 1.0E+30
c)1 out of 99.8 trillion


6. In 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush.
What are the odds?
Probability = 1 Binomdist(86, 88, 0.5,true)

a)Less than 1 out of 1.0E+30
b)1 out of 99 billion
c)1 out of 351 trillion


7. Kerry led by 50.8% - 48.2% in the National Exit Poll (13,047 sub-sample). Bush won the popular vote by 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll. The margin of error was 1.0%.
What are the odds?
Probability = 1 Normdist(.482,.512, .01/1.96,true)

a) 1 out of 485 million
b) 1 out of 662,000
c) 1 out of 250 million


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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 09:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. How many times does one boy
get to win the trifecta?
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RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. No limit in "Jesus-land" (n/t)
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Beth in VT Donating Member (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. With God all things are possible. n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 07:23 AM
Response to Original message
4. No takers?
.
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Keep Posting
Edited on Sat Jan-15-05 09:28 AM by davidgmills
Look at the crock that euler posted today from 6 PhD's. That should be fun.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
6. c. n/t
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AtLiberty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Will you please provide the answers?
merci
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AtLiberty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. *kick*
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
9. Edited cuz I checked my work:
Edited on Sat Jan-15-05 07:15 PM by bleever
1,2,3,4: all c.

5. b


6. a

7. a
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