How to Give Blair a Bloody Nose

[muriel_volestrangler]

courtesy of the Labour-supporting New Statesman. Google has a cache of the article on tactical voting against Blair brown-nosers where you won't let a Tory in instead - but a Lib Dem, SNP or PC candidate.
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We have identified 47 such seats. In all of them, the Tories got less than 25 per cent of the total vote in 2001 and a third party got 13 per cent or more. (For Scotland, where seat boundaries have changed, we have used estimates.) All candidates on the list are thought to be Blairites, or at least fellow-travellers. They do not include Labour MPs who voted against the government on any of the four crucial votes of 2001-2005: the Iraq war, foundation hospitals, top-up fees and the terrorism bill. Anyone with a plausible claim to being "real Labour", including several ministers, PPSs and non-rebel backbenchers, has been left off the list.

The list, in case the cache disappears (the article is subscription-only):

John Reid, Airdrie and Shotts
Terry Rooney, Bradford North
Wayne David, Caerphilly
Harriet Harman, Camberwell and Peckham
Rosemary McKenna, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Tessa Jowell, Dulwich and West Norwood
Hilary Armstrong, North-West Durham
Eric Joyce, Falkirk
John MacDougall, Glenrothes
Iain Wright, Hartlepool
Barry Sheerman, Huddersfield
David Cairns, Inverclyde
Adam Ingram, East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
George Howarth, Knowsley North and Sefton East
Bridget Prentice, Lewisham East
Jim Dowd, Lewisham West
Gerald Kaufman, Manchester Gorton
Frank Roy, Motherwell and Wishaw
Calum MacDonald, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)
Charles Clarke, Norwich South
John Heppell, Nottingham East
Huw Irranca-Davies, Ogmore
Phil Woolas, Oldham East and Saddleworth
James Sheridan, Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Kim Howells, Pontypridd
Mark Hendrick, Preston
Chris Bryant, Rhondda
Lorna Fitzsimons, Rochdale
David Watts, St Helens North
Shaun Woodward, St Helens South
Hazel Blears, Salford
Meg Munn, Sheffield Heeley
Anne McGuire, Stirling
Neil Turner, Wigan
Hugh Bayley, City of York

Candidates who are not at present MPs:

The following are Labour prospective parliamentary candidates who, as far as we can discover, have no recent record of anti-Blairism. (Readers should make their own checks before voting against them.)

Katy Clark, Ayrshire North and Arran
David Anderson, Blaydon
Kerry McCarthy, Bristol East
Jim McGovern, Dundee West
Roberta Blackman-Woods, City of Durham
Diana Ruth Johnson, Hull North
Nia Griffith, Llanelli
Jessica Morden, Newport East
Gordon Banks, Ochil and Perthshire South
Angela Smith, Sheffield Hillsborough
Robert Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South
Barbara Keeley, Worsley

[D-Notice]

1. Is there much of a difference

between a Bliar-brown noser & a Tory? Just that I don't see one...

[non sociopath skin]

2. Mu, you're pretty good on statistics.

Can you tell us - or is there anywhere on the Net which could help - what would be the outcome if ALL of these were replaced by non-Tory alternatives?

I appreciate your (and the Staggers) sentiments, but you know my fears ...

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Not easy to say

because it would, of course, depend on the other seats not listed here. If they too had a swing to the Lib Dems etc. anywhere near enough for Labour to lose these seats, then the Lib Dems would probably be in power with an absolute majority - eg Harriet Harman got 69% to the Lib Dems' 13% in the last election. These aren't target seats that the non-Labour parties have a reasonable chance of winning (though some are, eg Ochil and Perthshire South, 2001: Lab 33.7 Con 21.8 SNP 31.3) - they're seats where a protest vote won't let a Tory in, while it hopefully will be noticed - perhaps by putting the other party into a strong second place. Not only does that chide New Labour, it also makes the Conservatives look unpopular.

Looking at your own MP, Denis Murphy, it looks as though his voting on the Iraq war (voting with the Lib Dem/rebel Labour etc. on amendments, and then abstaining on the final vote) has been enough to keep him off this list - the poll numbers would allow him on. So I think we really can say these people are hardcore New Labour.

[Vladimir]

4. The weakness of the list is that it leaves out those

'with a plausible claim to being real Labour'. Hence my ultra Blairite (in the sense that publicwhip has him rebelling on two votes during the last 8 years, both to do with the House of Lords reform) MP Andrew Smith gets left off the list, even though in his constituency the Tories only got 19% and the Lib Dems got 25% at the last election. So I am suspicious of how complete this tally is...