WOW -- what's up with this LTTE? (Governor's race)

[theHandpuppet]

Saw this LTTE to the Portsmouth Daily Times which claims Strickland is only ahead by four points and the race is a virtual dead heat. Have I missed something?

http://www.portsmouth-dailytimes.com/articles/2006/08/02/news/letters_to_the_editor/1letters_speeding.txt

Polls conflict on governor's race between Strickland and Blackwell

Since the Portsmouth Daily Times decided to publish poll results from The Columbus Dispatch showing Ted Strickland with a 20-point lead over Ken Blackwell, I assume you'll also be interested in the poll Zogby just released contradicting those numbers.

The Zogby poll, which was published just days after the Dispatch article, concludes that Strickland is only leading Blackwell by 4 percent. That means Strickland actually is losing support, not gaining it, as this is a closer margin than any previous poll has suggested. There are a number of factors that explain this difference, and all of them suggest that the Zogby poll is more accurate.

First, there's the fact that the Dispatch polled registered voters and not likely voters. In an off-year election, which typically has low turnout, that difference can be monumental. Second, the Dispatch's own article admits that the poll received an unusually high number of responses from Democrats, suggesting the sample was skewed in Strickland's favor.

And let's not forget that The Columbus Dispatch proved last year how wildly inaccurate its polling can be when it predicted landslide victories for the Reform Ohio Now amendments. RON was met with landslide defeat instead. The difference between that Dispatch poll and actual vote results was roughly 25 percent. That alone should be enough to ruin the paper's credibility when it comes to polling statewide elections.

Plus, it's worth noting that no other polling firm has offered results anywhere close to what The Columbus Dispatch came up with. Zogby's poll, on the other hand, is right in line with what The Ohio Poll published after the primary.

The Columbus Dispatch was wrong on RON, and it's wrong on the governor's race. The Strickland-Blackwell race is a virtual tie. While I commend the PDT for following this race, I think the public deserves to see all of the numbers.

Jessica Shelpman

Lucasville

[NEOBuckeye]

1. She's full of shit. Blackwell is going down hard.

Check out the Rasmussen Results:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=172x18802

[Kolesar]

2. could not the Dispatch check the Zogby data?

or are they such RW weenies that they like getting kicked in the 'nads as their "duty" as part of the Main Stream Media??

[theHandpuppet]

3. Okay, I'm confused

This woman claims that it's the Zogby poll that only puts Strickland in a 4 point lead. Maybe I'm dense, I'm just not following you right now. :shrug:

[AngryOldDem]

4. Did a quick search of the Zogby site

And the last poll data they had on the Ohio race was from mid-June and had Strickland up by five or six, if memory serves.

There have been at least two more Zogby polls since then, so I don't know what to make of these numbers. :shrug:

[mtnester]

5. Whoopsie, I think she got Blackwell and DeWine mixed up

eom

[Epiphany4z]

6. Rasmussen Reports an 11 pt lead for Ted

found this just a couple of post down in the ohio forum


Ted Strickland (D) 50%
Ken Blackwell (R) 39%

Unlike the U.S. Senate race in the state, Ohio's gubernatorial contest is not showing much movement.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Ohio shows Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland leading Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell 50% to 39% (see crosstabs). Strickland continues to do better among unaffiliated voters and especially moderates, and manages to lure 23% of GOP voters. Blackwell attracts the support of only 9% of Democrats.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July

[theHandpuppet]

9. But Zogby is only reporting a 4% lead?

That's what she's pointing out in the LTTE. So which is correct?

[Epiphany4z]

7. well I think I found where she got her info

from Ken Blackwells web sight


http://www.kenblackwell.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=442



New polling shows tight governors race

COLUMBUS – The Wall Street Journal Zogby Interactive Poll today indicated Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell is in a close race with Congressman and former prison psychologist Ted Strickland. Blackwell trails Strickland by 4.6 points with a 3.2 percent margin of error. The survey mirrors a June 22 Zogby poll showing Blackwell trailing Strickland by only five points and a May 25 University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll showing Blackwell trailing Strickland by six points.


The surveys contrast a Columbus Dispatch poll released Sunday showing Blackwell trailing Strickland by 20 points. The inconsistency in the four polls could be explained by what the Dispatch calls “a somewhat higher than normal percentage of Democrats” responding to its own survey.


“When voters begin to focus

[zbdent]

8. So, according to the original writer

the 2002 massive gains by the Republicans really weren't reflective of the people?

:eyes:

[keithkam]

10. About RON

Weren't the polls by the Dispatch reliable up until the RON amendments which were voted on with electric machines that easily could have flipped the results? I can't say I'd be surprised if Strickland loses by how much he's leading now.

[Eurobabe]

11. Maybe it's better that people think it is close --> higher turnout?

they'll get off their lazy asses and vote.

My ballot is coming in from overseas!!! I had to jump through hoops to make this all happen, the stupid Federal voting website only works if you have Adobe 7.0 which I don't, so I had to ask my hubby to print it out at his office, sheesh.

Now, let's see if Kenny Boy BlacKKK-balls me?