Congressional Republicans Feeling the Heat

[democraticinsurgent]

From today's Howey Politics Indiana:

Three of Indiana’s four Republican members of Congress may be feeling the heat heading into the final hours of the historic 2008 campaign. Earlier this week, the Howey/Gauge Poll had U.S. Rep. Mark Souder (right) trailing Democrat Michael Montagano by a 44-41 percent margin in Northeast Indiana’s 3rd CD. Souder’s re-elect was 35 percent and 50 percent said they would “elect someone new.” Montgano was drawing more than 40 percent of the vote in Elkhart and Kosciusko counties - two of the most Republican counties in Indiana.

Two other Members - U.S. Reps. Mike Pence (left) and Steve Buyer - represent districts that are more Republican than Souder’s. One internal poll revealed to HPI by a Republican source showed Pence with a 3 percent lead over Democrat Barry Welsh in the 6th CD in late October. Buyer, meanwhile, made a recent TV buy of more than $200,000 in the 4th CD where he has been outraised by Zionsville Democrat Nels Ackerson. A recent poll in Crawfordsville conducted by Wabash College Prof. David Hadley (a former Montgomery County Democrat chairman) showed Buyer leading Ackerson 40-36 percent. President George Bush carried Montgomery County by more than 30 percent in 2004.

The survey found John McCain leading Barack Obama 44-41 percent and Gov. Mitch Daniels with a 66 to 19 percent lead over Democrat Jill Long Thompson. In the 9th CD, former congressman Mike Sodrel trailed U.S. Rep. Baron Hill by 15 percent in the latest SurveyUSA Poll. The past two races in the 9th CD between Hill and Sodrel were close with the two each winning once. While all of this is anectdotal, the fact that 455,000 Hoosiers have voted early (out of 4.5 million registered voters) and there are long lines at early vote centers today across the state makes this a highly unusual election.

It reflects how strong the Obama campaign’s get out of the vote strategy is, how interested voters are in this election, and that voters appear to want change. While Souder won a closer than expected race in 2006, Pence and Buyer normally would coast to victory. HPI Horse Race lists the Souder/Montagano race “tossup” with Pence and Buyer in a “leans” Republican category which is reflective of unusual voting trends sweeping the state. Indiana has 11.7 percent newly registered voters who have no voting history and HPI estimates that more than a half million Hoosiers have turned out for presidential campaign rallies between March 15 when Obama appeared at Plainfield HS and Friday night when Obama drew 40,000 people to Wicker Park in Highland. Republican nominee John McCain will cap off the presidential rallies with a 3 p.m. event at Indianapolis International Airport on Monday.

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