This is how I see the first two primaries/caucuses

[Hawkeye-X]

First, the Iowa caucus

First place: Howard Dean by a little over 47%
Second place: John Kerry by about 14%
Third place: John Edwards by 13%
Fourth place: Dick Gephardt by 12%
Fifth place: Dennis Kucinich by 9%
Sixth place: Carol Moseley-Braun by 3%
Seventh place: Al Sharpton by 2%

Dean gets all Iowan delgates

New Hampshire primaries:

First place: Howard Dean by 41%
Second place: John Kerry by 21%
Third place: Wesley Clark by 14%
Fourth place: Joe Lieberman by 10%
Fifth place: John Edwards by 8%
Sixth place: Dennis Kucinich by 3%
Seventh place: Dick Gephardt by 2%
Eighth place: Al Sharpton 1%
Ninth place: Carol Moseley-Braun by 1%

This dictates that John Kerry has the minor momentum with some delegates with Dean having the big MO with the majority. Clark fails to obtain any delegates, heading to Feburary 3rd with a promise of Dean majority on most states (predicting 5 of 7 states)

Hawkeye-X

[helleborient]

1. I think New Hampshire will be closer...and Clark will be second

I think your take on Iowa might be correct with the Harkin endorsement.

Dean's organization elsewhere will be very, very difficult to catch up with...Clark will top out at the $45 million spending he can do in the primaries which will make it difficult to maintain a campaign nationally.

The Huerta and Chavez endorsements in California will help California be very big for Dean, in my estimation.

Dean is the one to beat here in Illinois...since we already have the lt. gov., Jesse, Jr., Jan Schakowsky, etc. in our camp.

Dean is holding his own across the South...one of two polls I've seen in Clark's neighboring state of Oklahoma shows him in the lead. A poll just came out showing Dean narrowly in the lead in Clark's neighboring state of Tennessee.

Wisconsin and Michigan seem strong Dean country as well.

I just don't really see what Clark puts together to win...and it looks to me like Gep and Kerry are near life support status.

[Padraig18]

3. I think the Gephart campaign just went on life support.

I now see a 2nd place finish for Kerry in IA, which gives him a boost to slow Clark or stop Clark in NH.

[JNelson6563]

18. I can vouch for Michigan

It's pretty strong for Dean. Throughout the state.

Julie

[lancdem]

2. Clark at 14 percent in N.H.?

No way he's finishing 27 points behind Dean. I think he'll be within 10 points and in second place.

[Hawkeye-X]

5. Not with Kerry's momentum from IA

Again, a reason why it was a mistake for Clark to skip Iowa.

Hawkeye-X

[DancingBear]

4. Who do you like in the Super Bowl?

I'll bet the other way. :)

[Hawkeye-X]

6. Hmm. One of my favorite DU'ers is a Philly fan

so I'm going with the Eagles on this one. Fuck the KC Chiefs and Colts.

Buncha cheaters.

Hawkeye-X

[DancingBear]

9. Could be interesting, then

St. Louis Rams fan, here.

Damn Lions.

[HFishbine]

11. Sorry Bear

The Rams are going down on Saturday.

[DancingBear]

16. In the dome??

To quote the immortal Maynard G. Krebs: "surely you jest!"

[dkamin]

12. ha

nice.

what about stocks?

[aldian159]

15. New England beating St. Louis

but I digress...

[Renew Deal]

7. That's a stretch

BTW, this is the fun part of these primaries. Handicapping.

Iowa

Dean
Gep or Kerry. I am leaning Kerry for second because Gep is in deep shit now.

Dean will be in the 30's. Kerry and Gep will both be at over 15%.

NH is still too fluid. A lot can happen there. Clark will probably not finish behind Kerry. That would now take a small miracle. The question is, how close will Clark and Dean be.

Gep will probably have dropped out by then.

[windansea]

8. rose colored glasses??

Iowa
Who When Dean Kerry Lieberman Clark Gephardt Edwards
KCCI Jan 5-7 29 18 2 3 25 8 0 2 0
Survey USA Jan 5-7 29 21 <8 <8 22 17

NH
Who When Dean Kerry Lieberman Clark Gephardt Edwards Sharpton
ARG (Tracking) Jan 5-7 35 12 8 18 6 3

[helleborient]

10. The Harkin endorsement changes Iowa and NH...

I think that's Hawkeye's point...so polls taken even yesterday aren't accurate now.

The question is how much it changes things and why.

[slinkerwink]

13. it does change things---Harkin is HUGE in Iowa

those Iowans love Harkin...

[windansea]

14. I realize his numbers are based on a huge Harkin bounce

all I can say is that personally I have never voted because of endorsements...which is not to say they are worthless...they create buzz and are always welcome

of course if Madonna were to knock on my door right now...she might be able to schwiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnggggg my vote



:party:

[dansolo]

17. I expect a defection from Kerry to Clark in NH

I think that when the NH voters are sitting in the polling booth, and they are trying to decide between Kerry and Clark (who I believe appeal to the same people), people will end up siding with Clark. He is the more likely candidate of the two to overtake Dean, and be able to defeat Bush.