Rasmussen: Bush 47.4 Kerry 46.5

[TomClash]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[molly]

1. That's pretty lousy for an incumbent - but great for us!

[papau]

2. WoW - drop back to even from many days of a 4 point advantage

!!!!

interesting!

:-)

[Pirate Smile]

5. Kerry must of had a good night last night. Hopefully, this shows the

way things are moving.

[RDANGELO]

10. Thats right

Remember, this is a three day average. By my suspect math Kerry polled ahead of * 49 - 44 yesterday.

[stryker18]

3. That is good news

If people were truly happy with Dumbya, he'd be in the 50s by now consistently.

[Ishoutandscream]

6. Yep. A message of disaster for the Boy King

An incumbent below 50 at this point? Bush is toast.

[PE]

4. Thank God

I hope that by the time of the debate next week that this margin is closed and we can move the topic from "what is wrong with the Kerry campaign?" to who has the better vision for this country.

The American people have not decided. So let's get it even and then let's have the debates.

[59millionmorons]

7. wow

No fan of Rassmussen, but Kerry must of had a + 10 last night.

[Snivi Yllom]

8. Rasmussen also has Bush with 285 EVs

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

September 21, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 204. There are ten states with 121 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.

Generally speaking, any state where the candidate leads by less than five points is considered a Toss-Up.

Today, based upon survey updates provided to Premium Members, we are shifting New Jersey from Toss-Up to Leans Kerry. We will be releasing new information on New Jersey for the public site next week.

* Bush has a lead from one to four points in six Toss-Up states with 72 Electoral Votes (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

* Kerry has a lead from one to four points in two Toss-Up states with 17 Electoral Votes (Minnesota and Oregon).

[Teaser]

9. Warning: might be one nights sample...

or the roll of one nights sample...

I subscribe to Rasmussen, but even then he doesn't give you the internals you need.

I hate having to estimate a night's samples. Given initial condition variation, the outcomes can wildly diverge.