Who said Clark doesn't have the Money?: Clark, Dean, and Campaign Finance

[LoneStarDem]

This is a spin-off of an answer on whether Clark can raise enough money.
Most of this analysis is off-the-cuff; someone please fact-check me if I'm wrong. In addition to the below, I went googling for more info as to the splits in convention times and how it effects the money race, but I couldn't find much. If anyone has any information, such as when you can start dipping into GE funds or whether or not Shrub can actually use primary funds to smear the Dem candidate, I'd be much obliged. Anyway...

(joined in progress)

What I think you're missing is that Clark's late entry actually *helps* him in terms of reaching the convention under the cap. To date his burn rate has been incredibly low (the third quarter was around 100k total, I know, because he was only in it for a few weeks). If we disregard the matching funds for now, he has taken in about 15-16mil, mostly in the fourth quarter. I haven't been able to track down how much he spent Q4, but lets say a generous 8mil. Assuming he can pull down the entire 45mil, that leaves 37mil to get him from Jan to July, seven months. That gives him 5.3mil per month or almost 15.9mil per quarter, more than anyone has even *raised* in a quarter. He's fine. Dean, no shame on him, had to opt out; because of his previous quarters of spending, he really would have been screwed.
Dean Expen:
Q1: 0.7mil
Q2: 3.3mil
Q3: 8.8mil
Q4: ? (Call it another 8mil)

Total: 20.8mil

Which would have left him just 24.2mil for seven months if he had stayed under the cap. As it stands, at the end of Q3 he had about 12.5mil in cash on hand. If we go with the above numbers (15mil in, 8mil out) that leaves him with about 20mil on hand going into January. *If* he can do another 15mil/Q for the next two quarters, that will give him a comfy ~7.2mil a month, or 21 and change a quarter. But, that is assuming present contribution levels can be sustained and that he doesn't run into a wall of either stagnating support or maxed out donors. Of course, the same goes for Clark, but he does get that nice matched funds nest egg every quarter. As it stands, Dean does have something of an advantage as far as long term funding (maybe), but it's not the disparity that some have made it out to be.

[LoneStarDem]

1. Kick

C'mon, I know someone give a crap about this.

[Bread and Circus]

3. Thanks, I saw an analysis once where Clark may have as much

money "in the bank" as Dean right now.

[Padraig18]

4. That could well be true.

one factor to remember, as a cautionary note, is that Dean has paid-for campaign infrastructure already in many, many places that Clark does not. Start-up costs can be very exp[ensive. :)

[LoneStarDem]

7. Very true

Very true, I (as a Clark partisan, but a friendly one) am concerned about that. Unfortunately, it has been hard to find info on how much has been spent, much less on how it has spent. I'd love to see a break-down on how state HQ/boots on the ground expenses compare percentage-wise to, say, media expenditures or travel expenses. But thats the great part about grassroots campaigns (both Dean's and Clark's), it's like Instant Infrastructure: Just Add Water.

Knocking on doors is still free :)

[JNelson6563]

16. Any idea of Clark's progress in MI

How many offices in Michigan, do you know? His supporters here seem to be getting much direction but are virtually alone. I suspect it's coming from central HQ. Especially since I see Clark supporters using similar stratgies from around the country.

This makes me wonder what states he has offices in, especially MI. Our caucus is Feb 7.

Julie

On edit: I don't know who is claiming Clark has money troubles, I know he doesn't and I am a Dean supporter.

[LoneStarDem]

17. I wish I knew

I wish I knew, I'm down in Texas, which has masssive electors but a really late primary. Have you contacted HQ in Little Rock?

[cally]

8. Interesting point

I hadn't thought of that. Do you know how many states Dean has set up in. Is it just the early primary states, or all of them?

[LoneStarDem]

9. hmm

I was wondering that too, and how it compared to the other campaign's efforts. Do any of the Dean supporters know?

[Padraig18]

10. I'd have to look for the link, but all 50, plus DC.

The organization in some early states is more developed, of course, but Dean is literally 'on the ground' in all 50 states and DC. :)

[LoneStarDem]

13. Hmm

Do you know what the break-down is as far as direct campaign involvement? Are all these coming from HQ or are they volunteer orgs that then get transfered? Obviously there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. But either way, all 50+ is a great thing. Congratulations. Does anyone know Clark's situation?

[Mattforclark]

2. Good post

Clark has the Big Mo.

Big Money.

Big Momentum.

[Killarney]

5. Great analysis!

[cally]

6. Interesting

Also, Clark will not have to take as much time to fundraise since he may max out early. That will allow him to spend more time with the 'free media'. California will be difficult and an important primary if this race goes on that long. California is a very expensive state to run in. I'm worried if this race goes that long how much any campaign will end up spending here. All of our candidates may end up with little money.

[LoneStarDem]

11. Kick

One more Kick for the afternoon kids

[Clark4Prez]

12. Great Post

It's nice to see some facts instead of some of the non-sense that gets posted here.

As for expenses, I can tell you as a Clark volunteer, that the Clark team has done a good job on keeping expenses low. At the Florida Democratic Convention for example, they were offered an option to have a ballroom at the hotel. It would have cost $50,000, they opted to meet in the parking lot with the Clark RV, cost $0.

They are focusing the dollars on only the things that matter. If this stays true, and I have no reason to believe it will change, Clark will not be running out of money.

[KaraokeKarlton]

14. Spending Limits kills Clark against Bush

Clark has limits to what he can spend. Dean doesn't. That means that Bush can beat the living shit out of Clark all over the airwaves for months while Clark can't defend himself against them.

[LoneStarDem]

15. Which limits?

Which limits are you talking about? Are you talking about the overall 45mil, or state limits? Are there state limits for the GE? What about national media outlets, are there any sub-45mil limits there?

[bearfartinthewoods]

18. thanks...i learned from this post

[John_H]

19. This in IN ADDITION to the DNC, 527s, labor, etc if he sews it up early

The Clark won't have enough money dance is just another red herring that Dean supporters use (and they'll try anything, anything at all) to obfuscate the fact their guy can't win no matter how much money he has.