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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 12:30 PM
Original message
Krugman's interesting observation on growth, jobs, Clinton and Obama
Edited on Sun Nov-01-09 12:32 PM by ProSense

Growth and jobs: the lesson of the Clinton years

Just a quick further note on my growth and jobs post. To get a sense of what 3.5% growth does and doesn’t mean, we can look at the Clinton years, viewed as a whole. (I’m using end-1992 to end-2000, but it doesn’t really matter if you vary the start and end dates a bit).

Over that 8-year stretch, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3.7%. (Did you know that? My sense is that very few people realize just how good the Clinton-era growth record was). Over the same period, the unemployment rate fell from 7.4% to 3.9%, a 3.5 percentage point decline.

So if we take 3rd quarter growth to be more or less equivalent to average Clinton-era growth, even after 8 years of growth at that rate we’d only expect unemployment to have fallen from the current 9.8% to a still uncomfortably high 6.3%. It would take us around a decade to reach more or less full employment. As I said in my previous post, that’s well into President Palin’s second term.

The implications for Fed policy are also striking. If we use a Taylor rule that suggests zero rates until the unemployment rate reaches the vicinity of 7%, the Fed should stay on hold for around 6 more years.

We need much faster growth.

So Obama has already brought GDP growth to within .2% of Clinton's annual average. For unemployment to drop significantly within two terms of an Obama Presidency, according to Krugman, he must outperform Clinton, possibly by doubling GDP growth.



Edited title to correct word.

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. Another interesting point:
<...>

"There's no question that the fact that we are seeing positive growth has a lot to do with the stimulus and the stabilization of the banking system," she said.

According to Sohn, the new president was able to help reverse some of the negative sentiment weighing on the economy in a manner similar to that of Franklin Roosevelt, who took office amid the Great Depression.

"Confidence has been crucial, just like when Roosevelt took office in 1933. He spent a lot of money and started new programs but the bottom line he was able to enhance confidence in the economy," said Sohn.

"I think Mr. Obama was in similar position. Confidence in the Bush administration was not high and by engaging an economic stimulus and talking to the American public I think he has enhanced confidence as well and that has been a key factor."

link



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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. President Obama
exudes confidence!
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HamdenRice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
3. Tall order. Shows just how badly Bush fucked up our shit! K&R nt
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
4. ProSense.......
Please know that you are appreciated by me! :patriot:
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
5. Unfortunately, it would be close to impossible to repeat last quarter 32 times
Edited on Sun Nov-01-09 01:29 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
Much (most?) GDP growth last quarter was government deficit spending. I am all for deficit spending to achieve a purpose, but obviously we cannot pump a surplus 300 billion into GDP every quarter for a decade.

(And I do not see green tech as being nearly as promising across the entire economy as information tech was in the 1990s, so no miracle in the offing.)

I think we need a quarter where we pump a trillion dollars into consumer demand in hopes of starting a somewhat self-sustaining cycle of activity. Kick-start a little inflation while the Fed keeps the funds rate near zero, reduce the component of monthly household spending that goes to interest with government refinancing... a real money bomb.

Sadly, that is politically impossible but if we don't do something along those lines we will end up spending even more money in the long run in dribs and drabs. (Just like Japan.)

Such is life. There is seldom political will to do anything really daring but endless political will to piss money away in small chunks. It's not about Obama or the Republicans or even really about America... it's human nature.

People in agregate (democracy) are cautious. Most really daring economic, and even environmental, policy is implemented by dictators and that's obviously not a good option!
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Impossible? So how did Clinton manage it for eight years?
There are a series of events that can lead to such growth: small business stimulus, health care reform, climate change legislation being passed, etc.

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Clinton managed it because he didn't follow Bush and a bubble collapse
The economic environment in 1993 and 2009 are not the same.

Clinton oversaw an economy enjoying the greatest concentrated productivity gains since the industrial revolution. No deficit financed stimulus was required. (The Clinton stimulus bill was killed by congress yet he still had 3.7% GDP for his term.)

Obama is overseeing a post bubble-collapse nightmare.

That's why Clinton could cut the deficit and Obama has no choice but to explode the deficit.


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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. And it's still not impossible.
Edited on Sun Nov-01-09 02:13 PM by ProSense
"The economic environment in 1993 and 2009 are not the same."

Really?


"Clinton oversaw an economy enjoying the greatest concentrated productivity gains since the industrial revolution. No deficit financed stimulus was required. (The Clinton stimulus bill was killed by congress yet he still had 3.7% GDP for his term.)"

Given that you acknowledged the difference in economic climate above and in your comment title ("Clinton managed it because he didn't follow Bush and a bubble collapse"), what exactly are you arguing here?

"Obama is overseeing a post bubble-collapse nightmare."

Which is why stimulus is needed.

"That's why Clinton could cut the deficit and Obama has no choice but to explode the deficit."

That hasn't happened in Obama's term yet. In fact, all Obama has to do is keep the deficit under control because economic recovery is paramount to deficit reduction at this time.




Edited for clarity.





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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Clinton's economic success was largely the result of technology
Edited on Sun Nov-01-09 03:21 PM by AllentownJake
There was an explosive growth of new jobs and new industry with the PC/Internet revolution. Most people got the first computer in their homes in the 1990s and businesses scrambled to update their companies with servers, software, and b2b and b2c business models.

Clinton can be credited for fostering a positive business environment for the new tech to take hold.

After 32 months of growth, it collapsed and that was the recession we went through around the time of 9-11.

Bush prevented a longer recession by inflating the housing bubble and the financial services bubble.

Clinton's bubble was ok, because it was brought on by a new technological development, Bush's was funded through debt.

The only way you will have 32 periods of economic growth is with a tech improvement the equivalent of the PC/Internet.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Well, this
The only way you will have 32 periods of economic growth is with a tech improvement the equivalent of the PC/Internet.


...times have changed and there are other developments that can spur similar economic growth.

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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Nope
unless you are creating an unsustainable asset bubble times have not changed.

I guess you could destroy the industrial output of all potential competitors like is what happened in World War 2 and even than there was a significant increase in tech after the war, no times have not changed.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. The bubble was the 1990s. Times have changed.

Green shoots rise from brownfields

8 October 2009

Uncle Sam looks to eliminate the biggest hurdle to expanding renewable energy – the need for suitable sites to place commercial-scale wind and solar farms – by reusing hundreds of old mines, landfills and industrial sites.

By Scott Streater
for the Daily Climate

When the Bethlehem Steel mill in Lackawanna, N.Y., finally shut its doors for good eight years ago, it took away thousands of jobs and left behind a polluted and unsightly mess.

But in 2006, while the idle grain elevators and coke ovens sat rusting on the banks of Lake Erie, something unexpected happened. Wind turbines began springing up on a 30-acres section of the former Superfund site in this Buffalo suburb.
Today, the eight turbines at the Steel Wind project crank out enough clean, green electricity to power more than 6,000 homes in western New York, and the 400-foot-tall windmills have become a visual landmark. First Wind, the Newton, Mass.-based company that operates the wind farm with BQ Energy, plans to install six more windmills at the site.

Lackawanna is glad the turbines are there. "We embrace this project wholeheartedly," said Ralph Miranda, the city's director of development.

Steel Wind is one of the first, but President Obama and Congress are pushing to identify thousands of contaminated landfills and abandoned mines that could be repurposed to house wind farms, solar arrays and geothermal power plants.
Renewable energy is one of the fastest growing sectors of the U.S. economy, with the Energy Information Administration predicting 70 percent growth over the next two decades. But even with that expansion, renewable supplies will provide only a sliver – roughly 5 percent – of the nation's energy needs by 2030, according to the EIA.

Using already disturbed lands would help avoid conflicts between renewable energy developers and environmental groups concerned about impacts to wildlife habitat. These conflicts have stalled some high-profile projects despite the fact that renewable energy sources do not produce heat-trapping emissions of carbon dioxides, the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming.

<...>

The EPA in November will kick off a series of five national workshops to allow state and local leaders, renewable energy developers and conservation groups to brainstorm. "The idea is to get them all together and say, 'OK we have all this great (disturbed) land, we don't want to see development of greenfield sites, what do we do next?' " Swingle said.

The kickoff meeting is scheduled in Detroit, in part because Michigan has some of the best brownfield redevelopment potential.

more



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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. That is an example of a tech improvement
Now you need that tech improvement to produce as much economic gains as the Computer and you will get the Clinton growth number.
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-02-09 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. You're also going to have to produce the tech improvement here,
not in China or India.
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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Thanks for the article Prosense. It is a great idea to use already
developed areas and repurpose them for greeen technology.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. How did Clinton do it? I'm afraid he did it on the backs of the poor throughout the world
Edited on Sun Nov-01-09 04:10 PM by Peace Patriot
who suffered enormously from "free trade for the rich" (enforced by US-controlled instruments like the World Bank/IMF and the WTO), and it was to the long term detriment of our economy as well, in the bleeding of jobs and manufacturing from here to elsewhere. Those were not good jobs for the third world. They were shit jobs--slave labor jobs--that often combined with US ag dumping and other global corporate predator destruction of local markets. Jamaica is a good example. US ag dumped items like powdered milk on Jamaica, destroying the local dairy industry. They did the same with other products, and destroyed the local economy. The corrupt government meanwhile got the country into crippling debt with the World Bank, and this meant the destruction of social programs, safety nets for the poor, etc. Then the global corporate predators built "free trade zones" on the docks, immune from local labor laws. People had to work in these "international" slave shops because there was nothing else.

This suffering-bought "prosperity" benefitted the upper middle class--and of course the rich and very rich--here, and some segments of the middle class--but what was happening with most of the middle class and at the bottom was a grave erosion of good jobs, destruction of entire communities--manufacturing and farming communities--and increasing debt and despair, just as assistance to the very poor was being deliberately dried up. One could almost think it was a plan for creating "cannon fodder."

The computer revolution saved Clinton's policies from crashing the economy earlier than it did. The Bushwhacks' profligate spending on various "wars" (the genocidal war for oil, the "war on drugs," the "war on terror"), and on tax cuts for the rich, and its further deregulation of finance/banking (which started under Reagan--with the S&L lootings--and continued under Clinton to reach its absurd apex under the Bush Junta), deregulation in every sphere, assaults on labor, and other assaults on decent government, all aimed at "drowning the government (i.e., the "New Deal") in the bathtub", finally finished us off, with the final looting--the Bushwhacks Financial 9/11 in September 2008--completing the transfer of most of the country's wealth and power to a handful of global corporate predators, including--not incidentally--the far rightwing corporation, ES&S, which just bought out Diebold, and now has just about cornered the "market" on 'TRADE SECRET' voting machines in the US. ES&S manufactures its extremely riggable touchscreen voting machines in sweatshops in the Philippines! --and it has far rightwing connections that would raise the hair on the back of your neck. We can kiss the "New Deal" good-bye. They weren't able to dismantle its couple of remaining successful programs, such as Social Security, but they were able to loot us blind, and the effect is pretty much the same.

We really need to wake up about the Clinton "bubble." Some of us did see the dangerous structural problems that were being created, and did our best to cry the alarm in Seattle '99. We got lungsful of teargas and bashed heads for our trouble. But those protests were aimed at the heart of the problem--who and what "free trade" was leaving out, and how serious a danger that was. Now we see our farming communities becoming dustbowls, and no good jobs even in the cities, and the decimation of public services and education--as suffered by so many poorer countries during the '90s.

Clinton not only stripped us of our sovereignty as a people--our ability to control our destiny, which is now in other hands than our own--those of global corporate predators some of whom were spawned here, but who have no loyalty to this country whatsoever--and helped lay the ground work for this "Grover Norquist" USA, in which political discussion sounds like something Lewis Carroll wrote in "Through the Looking Glass." At one point, Carroll has the Red Queen order her servants to paint the white roses red, because red is her color. "Free trade for the rich" is similarly non-sensical. Freedom for the few, slavery for the many--and the many have to be heavily propagandized so that they think this is natural. Bill Clinton--who is most certainly a better man than Bush, and ran a far better government in every respect--unfortunately played the role of the Red Queen. "Free trade" is a sweet-smelling rose, he told us, and for a while it seemed true--until the paint killed it.

------

Interestingly, one of the victims of “free trade for the rich”—Bolivia—is now projected to be one of the hottest economies in the world next year. They did it by resoundingly rejecting “free trade” policies, throwing the World Bank/IMF, the DEA and the US ambassador out, nationalizing their resources (gas, minerals, oil), hard-nosed negotiating with multinational corporations, and making education, health care, pensions for the elderly and other social programs their top priority. They also have transparent vote counting, and a “best practices” election system--characteristic of all the new leftist democracies in Latin America—something we have lost here.

These leftist democracies are all doing quite well, amidst the first world economic meltdown—precisely because they rejected the policies that Clinton so fervently pushed, and that the Bushwhacks put on steroids and tried to enforce, in Bolivia’s case, with a rightwing coup attempt (just last September). The key is socialism—NOT trusting “the market” and the super-rich; strongly regulating them; strong government working on behalf of the majority; common sense and common decency. These countries—the countries with a conscience—are having no problem attracting investment. Foreign investors are flocking to them, and are agreeing to fair and decent contracts, that benefit local people—in order to access their rich resources--and the money is then being invested in the people—in education, health care, local manufacturing, land reform, diversfication, food sovereignty and other forward-looking programs.

Another key has been solidarity—the leftist leaders of different Latin American countries working cooperatively on many projects. But the main key, the first key, the vital trigger for change, was rejecting Clintonism. It is bad to cut social programs. It is bad to let the rich run rampant. It is bad to deregulate. It is bad to sell your country to global corporate predators.

It is not socialism that is bad—as the Wall Street Urinal and the Associated Pukes try to brainwash us to believe. It is lack of socialism—lack of care for the backbone of economies, the workers and their dependents—and lack of regulation of the “dog eat dog” super-rich--that crashes the banks and spoils everything for everybody. Reagan was wrong. Clinton was wrong. The Bushwhacks were wrong (and into massive looting). And all their bullshit theorists were wrong. And Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and their leftist allies throughout Latin America are landing on their feet because they defied those dictates.

If you steal from people, rather than cooperating in “raising all boats,” you end up like us, with a looted economy and trillions of dollars in debt, unto the 7th generation. Greed is not the answer. Greed will do you in. Greed kills economies. It must be balanced with social justice--an equally strong human motivator.

----------------------
A primer on Latin American leftist economics:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-weisbrot/ecuador-bolivia-show-that_b_339968.html

And here's a whole lot more of Mark Weisbrot--well worth reading (helps block Grover Norquist noise out of your head):
http://ideas.repec.org/e/pwe148.html
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
6. If you borrow money and spend it GDP will go up
There is no debate or arument over whether or not that will happen, the question is what happens after the borrowing and spending stops. If you back out cash for clunkers and the housing credit and stimulus spending from GDP the growth is still negative. That is fine, but until the private sector takes over as the driver of growth you don't have a recovery.

Hopefully the 4th quarter business numbers are better than the 3rd quarters. It is a step in the right direction, but we are in the middle of the mine field not at the edge.
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-01-09 07:41 PM
Response to Original message
17. Very interesting.....
.... at least after I read it through about 14 times. :) (took me a minute lol)
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-02-09 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. LOL! n/t
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