I Don't Think Kerry Will Win NC or Virginia

[liberalpragmatist]

If Kerry did carry one or both (most likely Virginia) it's be fantastic. But let's face it. If Kerry wins Virginia he's most likely already won a substantial victory. My own guess is that he narrowly loses both states, but the margin is much closer than expected. Something like between 1 and 3 in Virginia (i.e. 50-49 Bush or 51-48 Bush) and between around 5 points in NC (i.e. 52-46 Bush or 52-47). That's good news really - it means that we're well on our way to making those states battlegrounds, which will probably be undisputed by 2008.

Colorado, on the other hand, is VERY winnable. And Arkansas is still in play. Florida, of course, and Ohio, and Missouri (*'s doing uncomfortably well here according to most of the polls - about 6 or 7 points ahead, but it's surmountable) - all red states (in the last election) with the possible exception of Florida (should've been blue) which we have a serious shot at picking up.

[WinterStorm]

1. I think that you are wrong about NC

Unless they have BBV.

[Lex]

12. I think that NC will go Kerry, too.

It will be a huge victory for Edwards too.

[progressivebydesign]

15. I miss Edwards!!! Where has he been?

They need to have his face all over the media right now.. he's such an asset! They could definitely win NC...

[kerryin2004]

17. He doesn't get any coverage

He is out there but the reich wing media ignores him.

[Lex]

18. He was in Raleigh yesterday doing a town-hall meeting

.
and he was in Cincy yesterday evening and there was a thread here about it: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x849197

In Raleigh yesterday he said "Iraq is a MESS."
Link: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1658224p-7888555c.html


Edwards in Raleigh yesterday

[Doosh]

2. SC has been trending to us

[Rambis]

6. The point is....

Bush had to go to these places to spend time and money. When was the last time a repug had to spend a lot of time in any of these places? It was a flyby until this year.

[quaoar]

3. Yeah, you're right

Let's just write them both off. Fuck 'em. Bush can have them.

Writing off states was such a winning strategy for Gore, let's do the same stupid thing this time.

[Zynx]

7. Gore wrote off Ohio and Arizona too. Looking back, he should have done

things a lot differently. He left himself with no margin for error.

[drdigi420]

8. yes, it worked great, lest you forget.......

GORE WON!

[liberalpragmatist]

10. Don't get angry - I'm not saying to totally write them off.

Gore did a bad job of winnowing the battleground states - abandoning Ohio and Tennessee for example. But the truth is that with the EC you do have to winnow down the battlegrounds somewhat in order to save resources to compete in states that are more likely to go to you. Lots of states are potentially competitive, but if you try to spread your resources too thin then there's not enough left to fully fund you in the places where you can actually win.

In any event, I'm not talking about completely writing off NC or Va. (although it does seem like the Kerry camp is doing so). What I mean is for there to be some investment and money spent in them, cultivate them, if in the final couple of weeks, it looks like there's a real chance that they can be won, then expand resources and whatnot into both states. But realistically, we can hope to make them close but we'll probably lose them. These would be long-term investments, with the idea of laying the foundations for more competitive races in the future.

[dad]

4. Get real..

No chance in NC

[Vincardog]

5. The polls don't mean $hit. They only count the folks they want to

They ignore the young and oversample the Republicans. Spreading defeatism is bad. Kerry is going to win Big. We are going to reclaim our government. The Rabid Radical Right Wing-Nuts are history. There is no other choice.

[tedoll78]

9. I happen to agree with you.

We probably won't win North Carolina or Virginia, unless Kerry's famously-strong closing sweeps the whole non-South/non-Rockies country.

I have a very good feeling about Florida. People are pissed about 2000 there, vote monitoring organizations will be EVERYWHERE, Mike Moore will be there with cameras, it's gotten over a million new residents (with over half being minorities), and Bush can barely manage a lead there at the peak of his bounce. And what's more extraordinary about the Bush bounce is that it came at the end of 6 horrible weeks for Kerry.. and still Bush can only barely break out of a statistical tie! Kerry had been narrowly leading in Florida all year long; I suspect he'll be leading there again.

Ohio seems to be succumbing to the redneck-y-ness surrounding it (Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Western Pennsylvania). I suspect that Kerry will still lose there by 1 or 2%. And then the people there will wonder why they're starving, why their kids' schools suck, why their healthcare is going down the tubes, etc.. idiots.

Colorado is my pick for Surprise of the Election. If you were to take the Gore States + New Hampshire + Colorado, it would end-up giving Kerry a 273EV victory. We really need to go all-out on the GOTV effort there.

[Leilani]

11. Kerry is losing rural voters

David Gepsin, one of the best & smartest reporters (Iowa) just said that Kerry is running behind Gore, & is starting to fall farther behind among rurual voters.

Gepsin is the guy everyone sees at the time of the primaries...he not only knows more about Iowa than any 100 people put together, but he is an expert on rural, midwest & farm type voters.

If this is the case in Iowa, the South will not be any different.

With Kerry turning his campaign around & fighting, I think we must concentrate on cities & suburbs.

I think we will win, but the strategy has been screwed up since the beginning, but is now starting to turn.

[livinginphotographs]

13. I don't know about winning, but Kerry will do well in VA.

I have seen tons of Kerry ads on TV, and not one Bush ad. Plus, in the very Republican-heavy area of Richmond that I live in, you'd be surprised just how many Kerry signs and bumperstickers you see, and how very few Bush stickers.

The fact that I've gone this entire campaign without having my car keyed or my bumpersticker vandalized says a lot, as well. ;)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

23. Those are very good signs

Kerry only needs 220,000 more votes than Gore got to surpass Bush's 2000 total. How are new registrations going there?

[livinginphotographs]

26. I haven't personally volunteered

(I know, bad Democrat), but from friends/acquaintances, etc. I've talked to, it looks like Kerry's got a pretty strong following. I had a woman come up to me the other day at the gas station and comment on my Kerry sticker, and I've already convinced someone I work with to vote for him.

The West End has always been a rich, white, SUV-driving Republican stronghold, so it's encouraging to see all the Kerry support. I never want to get my hopes up prematurely about a Kerry win in VA, but we do have a Democratic governor (after the Republican made a huge mess of things), lots of military, a decent amount of union guys, and a large minority population, so stranger things have happened.

[wickywom]

14. As a resident of NC...

it will be close ,but don't count us out yet...
It kinda depends on what the military folks do
(especially in VA)-- *'s underbelly is exposed and the word is getting out.
They do not like Bush honestly, they are just ,sadly, convinced Kerry is bad.
and that can be changed.

If word gets out in time about the draft... NC is packed full with college kids..

[CitySky]

25. Draft Altert

There is a great flyer called DRAFT ALERT available at http://somnamblst.tripod.com/

How a few intrepid DUers print out a bunch of copies and distribute them near on the campuses in NC?

-Peace!

[yellerpup]

16. Kerry can take NC

Unemployment in rural areas is ridiculously high. There have been so many layoffs in the past few years (350 last month in a town of 1,500, for instance) that unemployment is under reported, especially among blue collar workers with kids. Now, they have no health care either. If Bush takes NC it won't be because Democrats are unmotivated. I'm new to the state, but we are registering new Democratic voters steadily. Beginning Saturday we will be showing Fahrenheit 9/11 FREE at the Democratic HQ in Hickory where business has been brisk. Don't count us out, we have a strong Democratic governor with a 15% lead and Erskine Bowles (Senatorial candidate) with a 10% lead. Lots of young N Carolinians are dying in Iraq, too. Maybe we won't pull it off, but if we don't it won't be from lack of effort.

[Borgnine]

19. Don't count VA out.

I live in rural Virginia, and Kerry/Edwards stickers are outnumbering Bush/Cheney 2 to 1. There were NO Gore/Lieberman stickers to be found in my area in 2000. There's a strong anti-Bush sentiment among many people here. Plus, Northern Virginia is heavily Democratic, and may tip the state for us.

We're fighting hard in VA, and for the first time, it look like it could actually happen here.

[2Design]

20. so why post negative thoughts - do they help further kerry getting

elected - I hate having my mind filled with negative thoughts from a source I look for postive uplifting thoughts on my team....the polls are 'crap'

[IIgnoreNobody]

21. You're right about one thing

if Kerry takes NC and/or VA, it will be an early election night indicator of a big Kerry win.

[CitySky]

22. Let's just do what we can...

Here in Texas, I am delighted to be hosting a houseful of guests this weekend from North Carolina, in town for a friend's wedding. Count on at least 4 new or fortified Kerry voters to come out of it, and maybe their friends... ;)

-Peace!

[UpsideDownFlag]

24. virginia traditionally goes, repub, right? he might win NC b/c of edwards.