HOT ZOGBY UPDATE! ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 280 EV, 69% PROB

[TruthIsAll]

Voila! Check the Kerry rebound. You DUers are going to love the graphs.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

I posted earlier this evening - BEFORE the Zogby numbers came in.
I will not wait for electoral-vote.com to include them tommorrow.
So here they are. For your viewing pleasure.
I know its been a rough few days.
Hope you all sleep better tonight.

It has begun.

[Inland]

1. This is good, right? Graph has line going up. Good, right? nt

[Mojambo]

2. Man, I'm feeling it

Are you feeling it? I'm watching this powerful, passionate speech and I'm just feeling it.

[senseandsensibility]

3. Woo Hoo!

That's more like it! The 25% probability I saw an hour or two ago had me down.

[Nightowl_2004]

4. Does anyone know the deal with electoral-vote.com?

Eveytime I check there they have a huge Bush lead and it seems to get bigger everytime I visit. Right now they stand at
Bush-327, Kerry-211 and are projecting Bush-329, Kerry-171? How does that work out?

I initially trusted the site cause I saw it in a signature here at DU but now I'm getting my doubts.

[Worst Username Ever]

7. EV is an inaccurate site, but it is a place where you can at least

get some recent poll numbers all in one place. Their problem is that they use ALL polls, including ones like Strategic Vision, which is an obvious repug schill firm, funded by the party. Right now all the media polls are weighed heavily toward *, but the private ones are showing a dead heat.

On the other hand, if EV is showing Kerry ahead, then he probably has an even more substantial lead.

[TruthIsAll]

9. I use electoral-vote.com for my state polling. Its a great site.

I'm sure they will have Zogby's numbers in Tuesday AM.

But don't expect their Kerry EV count to be as high as mine.
They sum up the EV's for each state. I assume a 60% allocation of undecided voters to Kerry.

My Kerry EV is the average of 5000 Monte Carlo Simulation trials.
He won 69% of them..

[theKnave]

17. re: "I use electoral-vote.com for my state polling..."

I agree. I don't care a lick for the national polls. Break it down to the state (electoral vote) level, and let us see what we are facing.

[gasperc]

16. the sites author has said he is pro-Kerry

however, he is sticking to his methodology to post the latest poll available in the state. However, if he gets evidence that there has been push polling by a particular group, he drops them. When he knows that certain groups work primarily for R or D's he puts that in the data.
The state by state graphs he set up are great showing the trends etc.
Yeah, I'm dis-appointed by the state of the race right now but I take it all with a grain of salt. Strategic vision is very pro-Bush so allll those polls are pretty suspect and are likely used by the GOP to try and sway the "other" polls. The GOPs thinking is that people and the polls are stupid and Americans are stupid lemmings and can be herded into believing in anything, like invading Iraq, being greeted with roses and being self financed with little loss of life.

[theKnave]

29. New Results, Kerry closing...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Mz Pip]

5. I like those numbers

Hopefully, today's speech will magnify Kerry's rebound. I suspect that there are people out there who just want to see him fight back, to show he wants this, to no roll over and let Bush define him.


Bush's numbers are below 50% favorability. People believe we're on the wrong track and we need someone new. Kerry just needs to show some fight and I think he can pull this off. People want to have a reason to vote for Kerry and I don't think it has to be some huge monumental reason, just some sense that things will move in a better direction.

Kerry is giving them that reason.

MzPip
:dem:

[CatWoman]

6. TIA

I heard you one night on Mike Malloy.

When he was still with IE America. :hi:

[TruthIsAll]

10. Catwoman, I luv u , your so sexy, but...

I never spoke to Mike.

Must have been an imposter.

[CatWoman]

14. Was it Randi, then?

before her syndication?

[TruthIsAll]

15. No, but I did speak to Beach Buckeye, if I recall.

KISS

[Nicholas_J]

8. Given the fact

That now three sources have reported that many of the polls that show kerry way ahead are skewed towards the Republicans, even these charts do not reflect Kerry doing as well as he should as the electoral vote.com figures its data by averaging out polls. Kerry is probably doing better than most of these sites indicate.

[mconvente]

11. gotta love that steep positive slope!

Math geek here! haha Gotta love that 50% jump in probability for Kerry. The latest Zogby numbers are encouraging too! I can feel a comeback!

[blue neen]

12. Thanks TIA. Love hearing the good news from you.

[cthrumatrix]

30. kick

[GimmeDANEger]

13. It has begun?

Mortal Kombat?

[Quixote1818]

18. What are the new states numbers from Zogby??? Can someone post them?

[NinetySix]

24. You can see Zogby's map here:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

[Roland99]

19. Bush up by 15% in KY?

I just don't see it.

Unless Republicans are registering as new voters in droves, I just don't see it. And Kerry statistically tied (%-wise) with Gore's numbers from 2000? NO way.

[Doosh]

20. what do these 2 french looking guys have in common

they're the bast damn closers in there profession!

[mconvente]

21. AMEN!!!

Hell yeah!

[featherman]

22. Sure hate for this to come down to FL mostly again

I agree the new Zogby has positive news with Kerry regaining all of his EV base (Gore state + NH =264). The 282 in this model comes from the addition of FL and AR. I like FL for Kerry but likely to be a nail biter. Not sure about AR leaning DEM. Very much worth a serious effort especially with Clark and (we hope) Clinton as surrogates. Will need to watch this trend. AR alone could win it if Kerry holds the base.

[mconvente]

23. We need every state we can get

If we keep the Gore states and hold in Penn and/or florida, we win. It's really that easy. That's why we need to campaign super hard in FL, Penn, and Ohio as well. However, we should try to focus on closer than thought states like Arkansas. They really liked clinton and if Kerry campaigns with him there, he should get a lucky win there.

[TruthIsAll]

25. Zogby today ...and ARG coming on 9/22...they give good Poll.

Gomnna feed those suckas into the model.

[Blue-Jay]

28. Zogby on BBC yesterday predicted a Kerry gain

based on his performances over the past few days.

[DeepModem Mom]

26. kick

[TruthIsAll]

27. Kick for Dan Rather

tia

[Mrs_Beastman]

31. Thank you

good thing to wake up to

[cthrumatrix]

32. kick

[TruthIsAll]

33. One more, for those who missed it.

kick