Krugman: "if you had polled Americans in 1936-37 about economic policy, what would they have said?

[ProSense]

June 18, 2009, 4:18 pm

Hanging tough with Keynes

There’s an interesting counterpoint between Christina Romer’s new piece in the Economist on the lessons of 1937 and the poll results, which are alarming some commentators, showing that a majority of Americans give deficit reduction a higher priority than rescuing the economy.

First of all, Ms. Romer’s point — that a premature return to orthodoxy can be deadly in this kind of crisis — is one I might have made myself. In fact, I just did.

I also liked her admission that

As someone who has written somewhat critically of the short-sightedness of policymakers in the late 1930s, I feel new humility. I can see that the pressures they were under were probably enormous.

My version of that admission is the statement that we owe the Japanese an apology: their stop-go policies in the 90s, the reluctance to reform banking, are a lot easier to understand now.

What I wonder is: if you had polled Americans in 1936-37 about economic policy, what would they have said? I’m pretty sure they would have been very against deficits — yet FDR’s attempt to reduce the deficit was both economically and politically disastrous.

The point here, I think, is that most people don’t know much about macroeconomics. Hey, most members of Congress don’t know much about macroeconomics — and recent discussions suggest the possibility that many macroeconomists don’t know much about macroeconomics. Voters do, however, notice results.

So the moral for Obama is, of course, to ignore this poll, for the sake both of the economy and of Congressional Democrats — Blue Dogs included.

Update: Aha! From the Roper Center (subscription req.):

Gallup Poll (December, 1935)

Do you think it necessary at this time to balance the budget and start reducing the national debt?

70% Yes
30 No

Gallup Poll (May, 1936)

Are the acts of the present Administration helping or hindering recovery?

55% Helping
45 Hindering

Gallup Poll (AIPO) (November, 1936)

DO YOU THINK IT NECESSARY FOR THE NEW ADMINISTRATION TO BALANCE THE BUDGET?

65% YES
28 NO
7 NO ANSWER

[Captain Hilts]

1. Yep. Thanks for posting this.

FDR: See? People wanted deficit reduction!
ER: Darling, you are supposed to lead, not follow...

[Drunken Irishman]

2. It's like deja vu all over again!

[Phx_Dem]

3. Krugman's pulling out the clever now. Which is a refreshing turn

from beating that dead "I'm right and you're wrong" horse every day. Not that he was ever "not clever," just redundant in a seriously downer way. He's back to the old interesting, but different information kinda-Paul that I've always enjoyed.

[Phx_Dem]

4. One thing that's so interesting about this poll numbers is that

it shows what, I think, we all know (well, except the media), which is . . . the general public doesn't know shit about economics. That's why when an economy turns during an election, normally passive voters pick up their heads and start paying attention because, even they, know it's important to get it right (or at least try).

People know how they feel about the economy, but they don't have a fucking clue what is the right action so they rely on the person who appears to know what they're talking about. In our case, it was clearly (oh so clearly) Barack Obama. Jesus, I could have sounded smarter talking about the economy that John McCain did, and I'm a blithering idiot when it comes to anything mathmetical or numerical.

Anyhoo, it's kind of reassuring to know that things haven't changed all that much in this respect since the 1930s. Now let's go have a glass of wine and ponder it some more.

[ProSense]

6. It's either they don't know or

they expect immediate results. Either way, the numbers are telling.

[glowing]

5. Personally, I think the deficit has more to do with bailouts and wars.

This country wants troops home.. out of Afghanistan and out of Iraq. They also don't want more money going to Wall street and bankers who use it for their plush lifestyles.. all the while, the rest of America is hemorrhaging, schools are losing funding, civic services are breaking down, entire towns are dissapearing... We are worried about spending so much money on things that don't benefit the most of us... that they will say like they are saying now, "there's not enough money for health care." This is the reason people are worried about spending sooo much money. AND they also see that our trade policies haven't been revisited, so a lot of this recovery money is going straight out the door and into China, Mexico, and India's coffers.

[girl gone mad]

7. Exactly.

The public correctly sees too much money being wasted on wars and futile bailouts at a time when foreignors are increasingly skeptical of our debt.