KY-Sen: Bunning Is In Santorum Country

[ccharles000]

PPP (4/2-3, registered voters):

Ben Chandler (D): 47
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 33
Jack Conway (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 33

Crit Luallen (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 34

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 36

Ben Chandler (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 34

Jack Conway (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 33

Crit Luallen (D): 34
Trey Grayson (R): 36

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36
Trey Grayson (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)

We've had lots of clues that Jim Bunning is in trouble: a Research 2000 poll from January showing him in dead heats with Democratic challengers, reports of "lousy" fundraising, and not-so-private efforts by Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn to give him his gold watch and usher him out the back door. But now we have a poll, via PPP, that shows just how dire things have gotten for him. Bunning's job performance approval is 28/54 (notably worse than anything Chris Dodd has put up lately), and only 42% of Republicans approve.

Bunning loses by fairly wide margins to all four of his potential Democratic challengers, most significantly losing by 14 to Rep. Ben Chandler. (Chandler, AG Jack Conway, and Auditor Crit Luallen all seem to be in a semi-friendly standoff over which one gets to run; maybe these numbers will prompt Chandler to jump.) Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo is the only candidate in the race; although he would seem to have a name rec advantage from having run against Bunning in 2004, Mongiardo actually fares the least well, winning by 'only' 7. Mongiardo is the best-known of the Big 4, but has the highest negatives too, with 41/34 favorability. (The Lexington-based Chandler is at 38/28.)

The best favorability numbers in the poll, however, belong to Republican SoS Trey Grayson, who's at 46/19. In head-to-heads Grayson also fares much better than Bunning, losing to Chandler by 6, to Conway by 4, and narrowly beating Luallen and Mongiardo. This points to one potential danger for Democrats: that Bunning is hitting his nadir too early, giving him plenty of time to shuffle off into retirement and allow the more likable Grayson time to ramp up for a competitive run. Of course, that scenario presupposes a rational Bunning interested in doing what's best for the whole state GOP, not just for Jim Bunning.

PPP also polls state senate president David Williams as a potential GOP candidate (Williams met with Cornyn regarding a possible run). However, Williams fares even worse than Bunning in head-to-heads, losing 45-30 to Chandler, 43-29 to Conway, 41-31 to Luallen, and 43-32 to Mongiardo. I initially assumed the problem with Williams is he's a little-known state legislator, but he seems as well-known as the Democratic candidates; he just has lousy favorability ratings (28/41). So for the GOP, it's starting to look like Grayson or bust.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4742/kysen-bunning-is-in-santorum-country

[bluestateguy]

1. We need to beat him just to offset the likely loss of Chris Dodd

Unless of course Dodd steps aside. Then we just need either PA, MO, NH or Ohio and we have 60. I think Reid is going to be fine in Nevada.

[ccharles000]

2. We have a really good shot at NC

[Bleacher Creature]

3. He's not running for re-election.

Announced a few days ago, I believe.

[PBS Poll-435]

4. I think that was an April Fool's joke

Perpetrated by the OP.


:P

[ccharles000]

5. He is running for re-election.

The story was on April 1 it was an april fools joke.

[Bleacher Creature]

6. Nice -- you got me. (Serves me right for just reading the first part)

That's really good news.