Why the Smearboat and Guard Memos controversies matter

[featherman]

In the end this election will come down to credibility of the candidates and turnout of the faithful. The key is now and has been all along to diminish the other guy's credibility and depress his turnout.

Anybody who went through the 2000 campaign should know how this operates. The GOP was successful in defining that race in these terms. 2000 should have been a slam dunk campaign for the highly qualified and experienced Gore, widely known inside the Beltway as a honest and slightly square "boy scout". But Gore was painted a "liar", and "exaggerator" and "not to be trusted" while a corrupt and phony Bush became "likeable" "straight shooter", "compassionate conservative", "probably a closet moderate". The final vote was close enough for Bush to pull off the stunning electoral upset by sweeping NV, CO, AZ, MO, OH, TN, AR, LA, WV, NH and steal FL. An impressive feat.

Many posters on this board repeatedly write "forget this trivia and return to the issues". The problem is that what a candidate SAYS about the issues is just so much hot air if he does not have credibility. There is NO DOUBT that the Smearboat hurt Kerry's very respectable credibility in August. The jury is still out on the Guard memos hurting Bush's.

The credibility campaign is fought on the national stage through the media. It is unfortunate but not yet fatal that the media are whoring for Bush in such a large proportion. It takes a not-to-be-ignored issue like Abu Ghraib, a Tet offensive, or a major scandal to CHANGE THE DIALOG and bias. Believe me, folks, we need the media...at least a good portion of it... to help us convey the message that "Kerry= honest,good guy, capable, up to the job and Bush = liar, phony, incompetent, failure"

Controversies that increase questions about a candidate's credibility do have an effect. That effect is reflected in enthusiasm and turnout. At this point the election is a popular vote dead heat to anyone who can actually analyze current polls combined with history and trends. We are likely looking a 264 - 217 Kerry current lead in the EC with FL,NV, OH, WV up for grabs. This is not as rosy as it seems since Bush did manage to take all four in 2000. Without more positive movement in the popular vote for Kerry, Bush may do so again. (Most analysts do favor Bush in all four). I do not want to lose this election 274-264.

Turnout is the key. And grassroots organizing is its fuel. But the engine does not run well unless the candidate is credible and admired by both the faithful and the yet to be convinced. Fools and losers do not inspire armies. WE know what and who Bush is and how he has misled the nation, But SOMETHING must occur to change the media dialog and lift the media veil on his duplicity... perhaps just a bit will do it. Otherwise we are in for a nail-biting night on Nov 2 that we SHOULD win but that we MIGHT not. A horror beyond imagining.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. As you mentioned Tet

I can't believe that in the current environment our media would actually truly change the subject... and one is probably brewing as I type this


The media is involved in defining the candidate and now defaming media outlets that do not play nice.

This is in the balance, and right now we are doing better than the polls reflect (manipulation) but we cannot assume we have this in the bag, even if common sense dictates otherwise

[featherman]

3. Thanks for reading my LONG post

Couldn't agree more. Far from being "in the bag" this election is very much hanging in the balance. If something doesn't tip the media our way, even a little bit, it will be way too possible that this country may do the unthinkable - reelect the worst, most incompetent, deceiving administration of the past 80 years.

[The Traveler]

2. Its the character issue

Bush is a man of poor character. We can see that it in his past as well as his present. And that, I think, is your point.

[DemBones DemBones]

4. Unfortunately, many people are fooled into

thinking that Dubya is of good character.