If McCain loses, what do you think is the future of the GOP?

[Danger Mouse]

Poll question: If McCain loses, what do you think is the future of the GOP?

     The neoconservatives first raided the Republican party under Nixon, but didn't gain much traction until they signed an unholy pact with the fundies and helped usher in the Reagan revolution. This coalition of traditional conservatives, neocon warmongers, and religious whackjobs held a vicious sway over American politics until 2004. After Bush's re-election, things started going downhill for them. The fundies were angry that their agenda wasn't being catered to...they were given a lot of promises, but nothing to back it up. The traditional conservatives were angry at rampant government waste and corruption, and sick of Bush's incompetence. The only truly happy party were the neocons, who were raking in the cash hand over fist.
     As Bush's presidency slid further and further into ruin, the weird partnership between hawk, conservative, and nutjob was starting to crumble. It was a relationship that was doomed to fail, with time. McCain represented the GOP's last chance to salvage that relationship. His attempt to do this was to select Sarah Palin as his VP. This disastrous choice energized the fundies, but the conservatives were furious and the neocons were left slapping their foreheads in disbelief. Palin is so far right that she is toxic to the party. Traditional conservatives, who believe in small government and lowered spending, cannot truly support a big-government Constitution-shredding psycho like Palin.
     Now it seems inevitable that if McCain loses, the GOP will be in a serious state. Heck, even if he somehow wins, it won't cure the party's overall sickness. It is held together by three philosophies that don't gel. What it comes down to is...what do you think could happen if (when) McCain is sent packing? I've included what I think are the most likely scenarios. Personally, I think that Palin will hijack the party, drag it hard to the right, and the traditional conservatives will abandon the GOP and either form their own party or join the Libertarians. No longer having mainstream appeal, the GOP will gradually collapse in on itself, vanishing from American politics forever.

[eleny]

1. Palin under the bus

[Danger Mouse]

5. You may be right. She'd make an easy scapegoat.

And she is disposable.

[eleny]

20. Yup, with McCain being such a nasty f towards women, she might want to stay packed

[TwilightZone]

16. Agreed. She's about to get Katherine Harris'ed.

[eleny]

19. What will ministers say when their congregations get tax breaks from an Obama administraton?

It's going to be awfully hard to poo-poo that money when it helps the families and feeds their collection baskets. The truth will be glaring.

So since Palin represents this sector of the Party, that's more of why I think she'll be shown the door.

:hi:

[VoodooGuru]

30. That would be logical, which is why they won't do it.

Here's what I see them saying, at least in the publications my store carries: National Review, Newsmax, The Weekly Standard. The Weekly Standard is in the Palin camp firmly. Fred Barnes is saying that the GOP will regret it if they DON'T get right behind her and push her until 2012. The National Review's cover, right before the election, has McCain piloting a plane that appears to be going down in flames. Not sure how pro- or anti-Palin they are, but they certainly pushed her hard earlier with a fawning cover picture captioned "THE ONE!"

Newsmax, after having made a gaffe earlier with a cover of a glaring Tim Russert headlined "The 25 Talking Heads Who Want to Pick the Next President" on an issue releasing a week after he died, has as its last cover before the election...

...a face made of a pair of fried eggs and a slice of bacon on a white plate and a story about how fat makes you thin now.

Losers.

Anyway, I think, as stupid as it is to do this, a lot of them will throw McCain under the bus and champion her after this.

[Seen the light]

2. choice #1

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. Some might join the Libertarian Party, but the more that leave the more the GOP will become the

"American Jesus Party."

[Danger Mouse]

4. I doubt the traditional cons would take that route...

that'd be the fundies.

[TennesseeDem]

6. Traditional conservatvies retake the party and restore it to what it was under Goldwater.

[Aloha Spirit]

7. They will prepare for the end times, leading to withdrawal, depression, and sadly, psychosis.

[Danger Mouse]

9. Hahha...

we can only hope.

[SurfingAtWork]

8. They go back to trolling for "companionship"

In airport bathrooms across the country.

[sarahdemva]

10. they will be back

we survived reagan and they survived roosevelt. i do think if we govern well and dont over reach the next 4 years we will be in good shape for a long time.

[Bucky]

11. I'm voting for fracture, too. They'll get at least 45% of the vote--not too bad, really

Especially when you consider how badly they fucked up over the last 8 years.

They may spend a little time in the woods reflecting, but they'll be in fighting trim by 2010. It won't be anything like the generational pummeling they got in the 1930s and 40s. I hope the Christian right in particular realizes the drag they are on the GOP--and corrects how out of step they are with the Enlightenment era principles of the Constitution.

The worst thing--the most unconservative, unGoldwaterian thing--Republicans have done in the last generation has been replacing principled pragmatism with ideological rigidity. America is basically a conservative country, I think, but people denying the Bill of Rights or the teachings of science are not at all what the word "conservative" truly means.

Some of their Koolaid drinkers are really scary.

[Danger Mouse]

12. I think America is largely 'conservative' as well.

but as you say, these nutjobs are far far away from real conservatives. They're just theocratic thugs and raving warmongers.

[Essene]

14. fiscal conservatives. libertarians. theocrats. culture warriors. nativists. neocons.

there are many dimensions to the GOP and the coalition formed in 1994 is collapsing.

these different groups have many contradictory beliefs on some core issues pertaining governance. it will be hard to rebuild.

it may not be possible.

[Essene]

13. it will fracture but not collapse

the 1980s conservative coalition of the reagan years with both democrats and republicans coming together collapsed in 1992.

a new coalition formed around social conservatives and culture wars in 1994. that coalition has now collapsed, finally.



social conservatives will continue their cultural warfare stuff.

moderates have lost ground in congress in this election, so it actually empowers the social conservatives in safe districts.

moderate governors will seek to gain a more strong voice for the party.

moderate congressman will be torn between setting up dems to fail... and trying to be bi-partisan.


if the moderates regain some control over the RNC, they could win back some seats in 2010 almost no matter what the dems do. however, i dont see much chance for them in 2012 unless obama really messes up.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

15. From a piece I posted that sank - my prediction

The full-mooner, foaming at the mouth fundy Repuke base is deeply and irredeemably racist. Given the sorry state of race relations in this nation, white trash's only claim to being better than brown people of all kinds is their whiteness. With a black man (especially such an intelligent and educated black man) in the White House, white trash, racists, Freepers and the rest of the intelligence underclass (as opposed to the economic underclass) will have to confront the cold, iron-hard reality of their own situation. Their cognitive dissonance will be ripped off their psyches like bark off a tree and it is going to be incredibly painful. They do not want, and possibly cannot stand, to face their real selves. That is a burning, core fear of this portion of the electorate.

The educated economic/political elites that identify as Repug couldn't give a hamster turd whether a candidate is blue, purple, black or Vulcan. To them, vulgar racism is declasse. That is why the conservative "intelligentsia" is throwing McCain under the train. Whether they admit it to themselves or not, the Powells, Brookses, Wills, Buckleys, et al., have finally gotten an uncensored look at the underbelly of hatred, stupidity, seething paranoia and sheer sociopathy in their party's base and they have been scared to death by seeing it up close.

Palin did us an enormous favor in that respect. Palin let the kooks out of the attic, they are now down in the the living room shrieking their kookery at the top of their lungs in the middle of the dinner party, like monkeys throwing shit at the zoo visitors. The kooks are firmly in control of the Repig party and this has spooked the establishment conservatives big time. Which is why the Reagan coalition is already in its coffin, just waiting for burial. No common interests unite these people.

The Repigs are completely out of ideas. They are as bankrupt as we were at the end of the 1970s. Which is why this will be a transformative election. The majority of the populace has come to what I refer to as the "Popeye point"; They've had all they can stands, and they can't stands no more. This is a "throw the bums out" election. And the party that brought us to this crisis point is the Republican party. The recriminations, bloodletting and fratricidal warfare on the right for the next 2-10 years should be most entertaining to watch. Unlike Democrats, they are unable to have a nice panic, then sit down, talk it through and try to figure out what will work.

In the short term, I see the traditional Right heading towards the Libertarians and the kooks/Palinoids taking total control of the Repig party and turning it into an openly theocratic/fascist party that will be irrelevant and get electorally stomped everywhere outside of the Stupid Belt, which knows no geographical boundaries. in the long run (10-20 years) the traditional conservatives will re-take control of the Republican party and try to update Ike/Nixon/Ford Republicanism for the 21st century,

No Repig president will be elected again until they find their Bill Clinton - nominally of the party, but other-side lite. But the fissures between the neocons, theocons and economic royalists are now far too large to paper over. These groups can no longer coexist because they have no common interest. They barely managed to steal/win elections with that coalition. They stand no chance splintered. The Republican Party of Reagan is as dead as Dillinger. They will be in the wilderness for quite a while. Whatever Republicanism may reconstitute itself as, the party we have known for the last thirty years is gone. Perhaps sanity and moderation will make a comeback. We need to be kept on our toes by a sane and responsible opposition.

[InvisibleTouch]

17. Great post!

Hope you will send this to a newspaper/letter to the editor after the election. Love the "Popeye Point" - it does seem like the country has finally reached it.

[Essene]

23. ya, for a few weeks ive been predicting the rise of Ron Paul (which is kinda funny)

his position is the most potentially viral in terms of criticism of what's going on in the federal government.

most importantly, it reflects the BI-PARTISAN frustration with the war, with spending and especially with the wall st bailout.

he's a powerful critic and americans love libertarian simplicity in reactionary times.

the serious moderates will hold their ground and build ground in 2010.

[Danger Mouse]

24. Very good post, I agree with your analysis.

[ensemble]

29. 30's redux

My concern is that the US/world will continue to struggle economically regardless of who is running the show, the the "theocratic/fascist" element will find support in this environment.

[workinclasszero]

18. Palin AKA Mooselini

PLUS

Behold the new Queen of the Reich Wing mouth breathers!

[Essene]

21. jindal, crist, romney, etc

palin is toast.

not only is her credibility nationally trashed, but she has 2 rough years ahead of her in alaska.

[gravity]

22. Wait until the Democrats bring peace and prosperity

Then go negative and bring up wedge issues again. Then they take control of the nation, fuck shit up, and the cycle repeats.

[enigmatic]

25. A semi-viable Fundie based 3rd party

w/ Palin as their frontpuppet.

The GOP will attempt to go back to old-school Goldwater conservatism.

[Quantess]

26. Pride comes before a fall.

So the Democrats better not get too high and mighty, and think the USA has made a dramatic shift to the left. The Democrats are the moderate ones right now, which is why we are winning. The republicans assumed that the nation was eating up their far-right neocon backwash swill, and they have been proved wrong!

I wish the USA would take a hard left turn, but I know that isn't what the American people want. They overwhelmingly want Obama & Biden, the moderate candidates.

[Honeycombe8]

27. BOBBY JINDAL. He will be the new up and comer, possible next Repub Prez.

Mitt Romney's position will also rise.

[VoodooGuru]

28. I disagree with "taking it back to what it was under Goldwater." They need to go back further

To more like what it was under Ike, sans McCarthy and his ism.

The GOP as we have it today is the direct and inevitable result of Barry Goldwater's wing seizing the reins. What Nixon and Reagan set up was always doomed to turn into this.

I think I can see where a person could think that Goldwater, without the additional embroidery on the GOP from the religious right, would be an improvement. Perhaps, but only in the sense of a slightly lesser evil. Goldwaterism is still very anti-intellectual, and anti-intellectualism makes minds fertile for sectarianism and fundamentalism.