When Early Voting Ends In North Carolina Will We Be Able To Determine ...

[musicblind]

When early voting ends in NC and we have the percentage of Dems and Repubs that voted in early voting (2 million) will we be able to determine what percent McCain then has to win in NC to make up for his huge losses in early voting? Will we be able to determine how large or maybe even insurmountable Obama's lead is looking towards the over all total on election night?

Is there someone here on DU who is good with this kinda stuff that could do those numbers and make an original post out of it?

2 million people will have voted in NC by the time Early Voting ends.

[Allyoop]

1. No

Early voting details will not be released until after all votes have been counted. We will know daily how many have voted and if they were Democrats, Republicans or Independents, but not how they cast their votes. You can assume that all Democrats have probably voted Democratic, but I don't know how you can tell if Repubs voted for or against McCain - same with Independents.


Try http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html for current information

[WI_DEM]

2. Just because someone in NC voted and is a registered dem it doesn't necessarily mean

they voted for Obama--there are dixicrats, people who keep their dem reg but vote republican for president. By same token we don't know if all republicans have voted for McCain.

[mmonk]

3. It's going to be interesting. Unaffiliated voters so far are going our way.

Obama supporters were out voting the earliest. Republicans started picking up some this week but I hear they have a lot of ground to make up.

[Brotherjohn]

4. I've been thinkling about this, too. Problem is, the only indicator of how early voters voted...

... would be a poll of a few select voters (which could be roughly accurate, but no more so than any one poll). IF such a poll is done. I know a few of the polls have asked that question of people who already voted, but again, it's just a sample.

The state isn't going to count & release early voting numbers.

That being said, while most estimates/polls show large breaks for Obama in early voting, like 60-40, it could just as easily be that the people who vote on election day will lean heavily McCain. There is ample reason why we Obama supporters in particular are voting early: excitement, Obama is asking us to, and we don't trust the system re election day shenanigans.

Nevertheless, the close we get to a large chunk, even a majority, of registered voters voting, and saying they voted heavily for Obama... the worse it becomes for McCain. Estimates I've seen say 1.8 million have already voted, and a total of 3.5 million people voted in NC in 2004.

That's over HALF. Assuming turnout is the same (it was pretty high in 2004), McCain would have to capture a higher percent of the remaining vote than Obama has so far. If that's 60-40, McCain would need more than 60-40 his way on Election Day.

[musicblind]

7. Thank you for that very useful information.

Especially the last two lines of your post. If Obama gets 60-40 in early voting and more than half in NC early vote... then McCain needs MORE than 60-40 to catch up. Thanks :)

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

5. yes--not definitively--but yes. I'll post something Monday once all the early vote totals are in.

And it'll be well over 2 million. We're cracking that today. 2.5 mill is more like it--and that might be low.

We can estimate both where Obama stands and what McCain needs by party affiliation and the pollsters' breakdowns of support by party ID in NC.

[musicblind]

6. Thank you SO much.

Would you be willing to pm me with a link when you make your original post on the subject?

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. will do

[dsc]

8. The people who early vote will likely be very different from those who vote on election day

Urban voters are advantaged by voting early (avoiding long lines etc) while rural ones are disadvantaged (only one or two voting places in whole counties). I think the election day voters will be more likely a pro McCain crowd.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Lots of good polls out of North Carolina today

Three polls indicated an Obama lead, margins of 2, 4 and 6.

That surprised me. I expected it to remain razor tight or McCain to regain slight edge. I bet on McCain to win that state and now I'm thinking it may have been a blunder.

I've tinkered with the early voting totals in an Excel spreadsheet. Tough to estimate because there have been many changed variables since 2004, notably emphasis from the Democratic candidate in the state unlike previous cycles, higher voting percentage from African Americans, early voting beginning when Obama was at peak in the national polls, and the DINO factor among registration percentages. Plus, the percentage of Republicans has decreased by several percent, but it appears to be merely Republicans moving to independent. They still likely lean right.

I'm not sure how North Carolina will work this on election night. Some states immediately dump the early voting totals into the mix so you can tell what the margin was if you are paying attention to the official elections results website as soon as the polls close.