Worrying exit poll in NV of early voters so far??? Obama 50-McPalin 48

[thesubstanceofdreams]

*** Note: I'm not a concern troll. I post good and not so good news. I believe Obama is going to win. Just want to get your opinions on these strange numbers ***.

Here you can see number of early votes cast in NV so far (and other states, but this post is about Nevada): http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

but *NOTE* there is party breakdown only for Clark and Washoe counties (which make up the majority of the population). As You can see, democrats hugely outnumber republican early voters in these counties. The rest of the state is rural and conservative and likely has many more republicans, but Clark + Washoe make up about 75% of the vote. So, you would expect Obama to have a huge lead in the early vote so far.

However, according to an exit poll with a sample size of 7000+, he's only leading by 2, 50-48:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/33433079.html

The only explanation I can get is that McCain is winning 100%-0% outside of Clark and Washoe. With democrats being more motivated to vote early, I don't like the fact that Obama is up by only 2 in an exit poll with a huge sample size.

[Mother Of Four]

1. Uhm-

Ok...

[Thrill]

2. Its a red state. He's still winning. Even in that poll

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. I realize Obama doesn't need NV to win the election

What worries me is that a huge party id advantage is not translating into a huge overall lead.

[Smuckies]

3. A little close, but we'll win NV.

[villager]

5. That's not worrying... in *Nevada*....

n/t

[brianna69]

6. Those exit polls are b.s

Democratic ballots outnumber republican ballots almost 2:1. Also check this out:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_daily_ralston_gop_faces_al.php

[progressiveforever]

7. A win is a win ---50.1- to 49.9 will do or whatever is on top

[dennis4868]

11. right but...

the OP is saying that these close numbers are from counties that are heavy on Dems and so the lead should be bigger...votes outside these 2 counties will be pro McCain...

[Schulzz]

21. 50-48 is statewide, NOT in the 2 counties.

---------------------------------------
Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.

The poll, conducted by Las Vegas-based consultant Steve Nathan's firm Dialing Nationwide Automatically, or DNA, was conducted by automatically dialing everyone who had voted through Friday, based on statewide voter records, and weighting responses to reflect the composition of the electorate so far.

Nathan said the statewide numbers were based on 7,147 responses to the survey. He said McCain was getting much of his support from rural and Northern Nevada.
----------------------------------------

[dennis4868]

8. could it be...

that not many Dems have not gone out to vote yet in these counties and it's mostly been repubs voting?

[sufrommich]

9. It could be a squeaker,but that would be OK too. nt

[DCBob]

10. Here are some numbers that should help:

Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 700 LV 4.0 50 46 Obama +4
Suffolk 10/26 - 10/26 450 LV 4.6 50 40 Obama +10
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 628 LV 3.9 52 40 Obama +12
===========
RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 50.0 42.5 Obama +7.5


That's a very healthy lead.

[woolldog]

12. The firm that conducted the exit poll

predicts a close win for Obama in the article. FWIW....

[dennis4868]

13. do we know anything about this exit polling outfit?

are they reliable and can be truested?

[featherman]

14. Jon Ralston of the LV Sun knows Nevada like nobody else. So read what he says

and don't freak out about random polls:

"In the urban counties, which represents about 85 percent of the vote, the Democrats could well have close to a 100,000-voter lead over the GOP by the close of early voting Friday. Unless the independents (16 percent in turnout so far) are overwhelmingly going for John McCain, which seems unlikely, Barack Obama has a chance to win Clark and Washoe by enough votes to win the state, unless the GOP Election Day turnout so overwhelms the Ds as to make up the difference -- an almost impossible task."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_daily_ralston_gop_faces_al.php

[bigdarryl]

16. I thought after 2000 they did away with exit polling because of Florida

[dennis4868]

18. well that is what the OP is concerned about...

the exit polls are from Clark and Washoe counties and yet Obama only has a 2 point lead....no one is freaking out just curious why Obama's lead is not bigger...we need Obama to kick ass in these counties...he has to in order to win the state.

[MadBadger]

23. No, the exit polling is statewide

[Johonny]

15. early voting generally favors Repulbicans I thought

so winning the early voting at all is encouraging

[thesubstanceofdreams]

17. Thanks for the reassurance!!

:hug:

[featherman]

24. Really, by this late stage, we all should know we can't rely on a single polling source

This outfit's results would have to be confirmed by another source or two and it's track record vetted, etc. etc.

I know Nevada well and have worked it for the campaign this year. Washoe County, for example, is not predominately Dem but has been a GOP stronghold historically until just this past month when the Dems managed a plurality in registration. The IND segment is quite large in NV so its not all about Dems and GOP.

Clark County is Dem but not overwhelmingly so. A lot of new registrants this year, it's true, but Kerry only won the county by 26,000 votes in 2004.

Obama will do well in Nevada. I'm expecting at least a +4 win and would be quite surprised if it was anything less. Kerry lost Elko County by 9000 votes (an incredible 12,000 - 3,000 in fact) and Washoe by 6000 while losing the state by about 21,000. But Obama has been to Elko three times and has worked Washoe hard as well. These margins will shrink considerably and allow the Clark vote to carry the state.

[bigdarryl]

19. When was the last time a Democrat Presidential candidate carry NV

[Emit]

20. Clinton, iirc

[Every Man A King]

22. Just because they call it an Exit Poll

doesn't mean it really is one. This was a RoboPoll. Old retired farts in rural Nevada answered the phone while Dems in Las Vegas were at work.