Every single tracking poll has Obama's lead between 3 and 7.... know what that means?

[scheming daemons]

It means they're probably pretty accurate.

There's no outliers among the major tracking polls:

Obama's lead:

Rasmussen +3
Gallup (Traditional) +3
Gallup (Expanded) +7
Diageo/Hotline +7
Zogby +5
IBD/TIPP +3
GWU +3
ABC +7
Ipsos/McClatchy +5




When there are no outliers like this, you can be pretty sure that their methodologies are sound.

In 1992.... Clinton won by 5%.

This is looking like 1992.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Clearly it means we're doomed.

[crossroads]

4. Yes... I am sooo 'concerned'! lol

[ingac70]

2. '92 sans Ross Perot.

No major third party player for the Repukes to yell "illegitimate" for 4 years.

[K Gardner]

3. But, but.. 3 and 7 are odd numbers ! Some think they're uNlucKy !

[Uben]

5. I'm concerned..............

.....should I take off all of next week to celebrate or just a couple of days? Bwahahahaha!

[Bicoastal]

6. If he wins by 5% points WITHOUT a third party spoiler...

...does that mean he'll have done BETTER or WORSE than Bill Clinton? When I brought up 1992 in the primaries, some were certain that Perot siphoned an equal number of votes from Bill as he did from HW Bush. What that means, I'm not sure.

[On the Road]

7. Pew Isn't Considered Major?

Just wondering. It would certainly be an outlier.

[Zynx]

8. Pew's a pretty reliable poll so I would be cautious in dismissing them out of hand.

[scheming daemons]

9. Pew isn't a tracking poll......

[On the Road]

14. Could You Explain the Difference?

I don't know the terminology. Does that mean it doesn't come out at regular intervals?

[scheming daemons]

18. A tracking poll interviews people every day and reports the sum of the past 3 days polling

Pew is a single poll taken every 2 weeks..... it is a "snapshot".


Tracking polls are measuring daily trends.

[sarahdemva]

10. why are you posting bad news????? STOP

do you realize obama has dropped from +8 to +3 on rasmussen in a few days?? WHY??

i can tel you why. mccain is out there fighting and attacking and we arent. we need to realize something, if we cant win with the economy this bad, with bush so unpopular and with so much excitement in our base we will never win.

before everyone says how bad rasmussen is he nailed it in 2004 and he has been more consistent than any other poll. why has obama DROPPED after stevens was convicted? its because we arent fighting. we should be MAD at what bush has done.

[scheming daemons]

11. Um...... Obama didn't drop... McCain came up.... Obama's been 50-52 for 35 straight days

[sarahdemva]

13. so every single undecided is breaking for mccain?

this drop better stop tomorrow. going from 8 to 3 ahead isnt good, anyway its sugar coated. i have read obama does worse on weekends in the polls. i hope to god we dont blow this by not fighting and being complacent

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

15. Nearly every general election tightens near the end

Even Dukakis chopped Bush's lead in half over the last 10 days or so of the 1988 election, but he never had a chance in hell of finishing it off. He'd fallen too far behind. So has McCain.
The fact that Obama has stayed at 50 percent (plus or minus a point or two) for so long, in nearly every poll, is indicative of the fact that he will end up at 50-52 percent, give or take a point or two, on election day.

[sarahdemva]

16. take 2 points from 50 and you get 48

which is what kerry got in 2004. 48 isnt enough. EVERYTHING favors us this time.

[leftynyc]

12. Uh - Sarah

dial it back for a minute. Perhaps you were hoping that Sen Obama would be BEHIND right now. He's ahead in every tracking poll, in every national poll. What you're seeing is statistical noise - nothing more. Now chill girlfriend.

[Bonn1997]

17. 3 to 7 is NOT good enough

They can steal an election that's within about 5 points IMO.

[scheming daemons]

20. It's 50 individuals elections, and lots of the battlegrounds have Dem Governors and

Secs of State.

They can only "steal" it if it comes down to a single state... one that they hold the levers of power.

[Bonn1997]

22. It's a better scenario than it was in 2004 but I still have trouble feeling comfortable.

I'm very confident, maybe 99% sure, that Obama will legitimately get more votes than McCain. I have no idea what the reported vote total will be though.

[Jennicut]

24. Kerry was behind Bush on the RCP total sum of the polls., 50%, 48.5%.Take a look:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Kerry had to try to catch up with Bush and win Ohio or Florida. Thankfully, this year, Obama has VA, CO, NM and Iowa in play. Ohio is looking better this week. McLame's support is becoming more solid with those undecided independents that would rather stay home than vote for him or back and forth people who really trend more Rethug to begin with. No major movement in the battleground states. I know some of you are knew here but the constant negative "I'm so concerned" posts are kind of annoying because as we all know the race in the United States is electoral, not popular. We have both right on our side right now but 1 to 3 points is meaningless if it means red states get more red or one toss up goes McCain's way but its a former red state he really needs to even be in this election (like Montana or even Missouri or NC, we don't really need them to win). RCP's average was amazingly close to the real election in 2004:50.7% Bush and 48.3% Kerry. Obama has a 6.0 lead right now at RCP.

[Bonn1997]

25. It's NOT all a matter of state polling

national polls affect public opinion and public perception. They influence how undecided voters vote. This is an issue social scientists have studied extensively. By influencing public perception, national polls will also influence whether Republicans can get away with stealing the election or whether the public will not believe the vote totals if the election is stolen.

RE: the Kerry comments. I have already acknowledged Obama is in a better position than Kerry was in. If nothing changes between now and Tuesday, my guess is the election won't be stolen because things are not close enough. But if the polls, especially national polls, tighten by 2-3 more points, I'd be less confident.

[slackmaster]

19. No, it does not necessarily mean they are accurate

In formal terms it means they are reliable, but not that they are necessarily valid.

[nsd]

21. For what it's worth, ABC-WaPO is up to +8 today.

:)

[depakid]

23. It means nothing of the sort

Just as logically- they could all easily be making the same kinds of mistakes.