Morning Joe: Pushing the Bradley Effect theory

[dennis4868]

This is all they have left in their hope that their old man wins the election....so sad!

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Reduced to racism as a campaign strategy. Not just sad. Evil.

[bushisanidiot]

2. Joe and the repukes are living in the 1970's. They are BANKING

on the "Bradley effect" being something that is still relevant 28 years later.
I guess all of those hundreds of thousands of cheering, screaming, white people that Barack draws at every rally, are white people who are going to MIRACULOUSLY choke in the voting booth. Repukes are really THAT stupid.

[CJCRANE]

3. Wolf Blitzer of all people

actually had a counter-argument on the Situation Room yesterday.

He showed polls that indicated McCain's age was a much bigger issue (especially with Palin on the ticket).

[life_long_dem]

4. Joe seems to think it's over. Mika is still holding out hope.

[Thrill]

7. Since McCain called her an Obama supporter. She acts like she has to go out of her way

to prove she is not for some reason

[Thrill]

5. Keep calling everyone racist

I'm sure that will work

[1corona4u]

6. They wish...

sad sacks of shit...

[Fluffdaddy]

8. I believe The Bradley Effect is FACT not a theory

In 7 days one of us will be proven wrong

[Ikonoklast]

12. I believe in Flying Monkeys. Doesn't mean they exist.

And in seven days, I predict tiny tears of rage for those posters here that want Obama to lose.

Know any?

[Fluffdaddy]

14. In 7 days we will see if Monkeys Fly

And no I personally don't know any. But I'm not a mind reader like you are.

[Ikonoklast]

16. Will you still be relentlessy negative after Obama wins?

I can foretell the future, too.

[geekgrrl]

9. a great assessment of the disappearing Bradley effect by Princeton-->

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/27/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/

"A hot topic among polling nerds is the “Bradley effect,” which occurs when a non-white (usually black) candidate falls short of opinion polls on Election Day when he/she runs against a white candidate. For this reason it has been suggested that support for Obama might be overstated - a hidden bonus for John McCain. Now comes a large-scale empirical study (in preprint form) by Harvard political scientist Dan Hopkins. He finds that since the mid-1990s, the Bradley effect has disappeared. His paper is a must-read.

<...>

Polls did show a significant Bradley/Wilder effect through the early 1990s, which includes the period when Bradley and Wilder were running for office. However, Hopkins notes that the effect then went away in races from 1996 onward. To quote the study: “Before 1996, the median gap for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points.”

Hopkins doesn’t know why this is - the data are after all correlative. He speculates on possible reasons, such as de-emphasis on race identity and tension. But something has changed to remove the discrepancy between polls and voting. It could even be methodological: Pollsters could be training interviewers differently. Automated polling by robot interviewers could remove bias. We don’t know."

[HughMoran]

10. I needed to know that

not

[FloridaGrl]

11. Where was the bradley effect

when Obama won in his senate race in Illinois, where was the Bradley effect when he won the primaries? I think the Bradley effect is just code to remind people that we an African American running.

[liskddksil]

13. The Bradley effect if it exists will be cancelled out by the Obama effect

That is the young voters and African Americans who will be voting in record numbers, and yet because of outdated likely voter models used by pollsters are not being taken into account to the right degree.

[City Lights]

15. I long for the day that msnbc announces that mourning jerk has been cancelled. nt