Charlie Cook - on MSNBC now- "No sign of narrowing"

[MANative]

Paraphrase - "He's over 50% anyway, so even if all undecideds break to McCain, it won;' matter."

[MANative]

1. "Now showing up in down-ballot races"

If it were any larger, it'd be Biblical - trainwreck.

[NMDemDist2]

2. "if it were any larger, it would be Biblical"

:rofl:

[MANative]

4. He seems to think it's all over but the singin'

:hi:

[tekisui]

3. Cook doesn't mess around, either.

[MANative]

6. From what I've read, he seems to be pretty accurate in

the past. Called it a "7,8,9 point race, anyway"

[Kahuna]

16. Right. Cook always calls it as he sees it. And he usually is very clear..

about what he sees. We need a fist bump smilie. But until we get one...:pals:

[MidwestTransplant]

5. In 96, Clinton lead at the beginning of the finaly week by like 15 but ended up winning by 8.

He was above 50 so Doles gains with Republicans didn't make a difference to the outcome.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Clinton Ended Up At 49.3 In 96

~

[MidwestTransplant]

13. Perot ran again in 96 too didn't he?

[MANative]

8. Yeah, I think that's a real key here...

Support for Obama is not eroding, but holding steady (at least) above the 50% level. Any minor pickups for McShame are from previously undecideds.

[barack the house]

9. Yep if you've got over a half you've got most of the pie. Mmm, sweet potato pie.

[MANative]

11. We like pie, especially if we get more than half!

;)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Cook is an Obama fan, btw. Not that it should matter - but shouldn't

we plan for the worst? I have kind of had mixed feelings about this. How do we know the opposition
backed polls are really an attempt to make it sound close-- to back up a fix--or to gotv -- or are
they real? Conversely, how do we know the liberal leaning pollsters (i.e. Newsweek, NYT) are really
true. Guess the answer lies somewhere in between.

[MANative]

14. I think it's always wise to be cautious and behave as

though we're 8 behind, because it's clear that the repubs will do everything sneaky, crappy, immoral and illegal that they think they can get away with. But it is certainly heartening when the bulk of trends show movement primarily in our direction.

[my3boyz]

22. He is not. He basically gave Obama no shot during the primary. He kept

saying Hillary would win.

[Thrill]

12. If you win an election by 5 points. In my opinion thats a land slide

You rarely see a candidate win by that much

[MANative]

15. Especially in the last 10 years...

I do think that people who normally sit out elections will be a bit more likely to vote this time around, and historically that usually breaks for the "change" candidate. That will probably shift the margin much more than in the last couple of elections. Remember Bush's "mandate" with a ~2% "win"? So, yeah, 5% is a tsunami, by those standards!

[onenote]

20. actually, you quite often see a candidate win by that much

Since WWII, there have been 15 presidential elections. The popular vote margin has been more than 5 percent in 9 of them (and has been more than 7 percent in 8 of those nine). There have been as many elections (five) in which the victor's popular vote margin was over 10 points as there have been elections in which the margin was less than 4.

And in congressional and senate races, margins of five points are considered squeakers.


THe past two electins, in which Gore actually won the popular vote and Kerry came within 2.5 points (not adjusting for any voter fraud) are the anomalies.

[frazzled]

17. Here's how Cook put in on Charlie Rose the other night

Using a baseball analogy, he said:

"Usually we're looking very carefully at whether the ball is a little to the left or a little high or low. This time we're looking at a fly ball that is going into the stands and possibly out of the park, and there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it."

[MANative]

19. As a passionate fan of the "other" national pass-time,

I love that one! Keep on sailin', right outta the park!

[Stagecoach]

18. Can hear Brokaw & Gregory now

"Don't ever allow Charlie Cook to come on during this campaign season again!"

[MANative]

21. "Reinforcing voices" only for those 2 shills.

I will give Brokaw a little credit for asking a few tougher questions on MTP this weekend, but Gregory makes me ill.