"Reverse Bradley", here we come

[frogcycle]

Not the same effect in reverse, exactly, but the results will be similar.

Currently, Obama is polling lower in Ala, Miss, Ar, La than Kerry or Gore's results. That could be because there were whites who voted for Kerry/Gore who now say they won't vote Obama due to race (what else? why would a Kerry voter choose mccain?) I actually doubt that though. No self-respecting racist would have voted dem previously anyway.

Polling overlooks African Americans. Either because they are not thought to be "likely voters" because they didn't vote last time, or they don't have phones, or the pollsters snub their neighborhood because they don't WANT their numbers... whatever. That is why Obama is polling lower. The question is, how low? How big is the error? People, Mississippi is over half African-American. If they vote in record numbers, and vote 90% Obama as C Todd says is happening, Mississippi could flip. The other states I mentioned might be tougher, with lower % AA and wider poll spreads, but I firmly believe there are some surprises coming for the pollsters.

[wildflower]

1. I hope this is true.

Has there been any reporting in the corporate media about it?

[frogcycle]

5. not to speak of, that I've seen

Oh, they have speculated that there are whites who won't tell a pollster they are going to vote for a black, but then will - that's what they call the "reverse Bradley" and various people have talked about polls overlooking groups, but I have not heard anyone do the math on the deep south and say "woah, wait a minute!"

I did hear some time back (I think is was C Todd) that the racist impact is small in nearly-all-white states and in high-percentage-black states; most significant is "somewhat black" states. Supposedly the high black turnout someplace like Ms. will counter the racists, whereas there aren't enough blacks to overcome it in the borderline areas and in all-white areas whites aren't racists. I find this implausible (and disgusting); there are plenty of racists in all-white areas, who have rarely if ever seen a black person in the flesh. But that is the story they tell.

Anyway, if this theory is true, then somebody should be raising an eyebrow over those Mississippi polls.

[Zynx]

2. Obama is polling a lot closer in MS than Kerry did.

His worse states are Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Lousiana. They can keep those.

[frogcycle]

8. This thing has Obama same as Kerry

Obama 40, Kerry 40, Gore 41

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I don't believe it. If everyone who voted in 2004 votes this time, and votes the same, the GOTV surge amongst African Americans is going to make Obama significanlt higher than Kerry.

[Alhena]

3. I'm in Mississippi and have to brace myself when I mention I support Obama

I wait for some wild, redneck stare to flare up in the eyes of the person I'm telling this to. If I'm asked, it would be FAR easier to just say "I'll vote for McCain." That's expected down here. I have no doubt at all that many Obama supporters down here conceal that fact.

[Submariner]

4. Former slave owning family McCain gets it's ass whipped by a descendent of a former slave

How's that for a kick in the ass. :patriot:

[PassingFair]

6. Um...his father was from Kenya.

Unless he was enslaved in Kenya, what do you mean by your
subject line?

[Submariner]

10. I find it ironic that a black man

is not only going to beat a white man, but a descendant of a slave owning family. I hope the African American community feels a little extra taste of historical justice in that fact.

[Fluffdaddy]

13. Bad post...sorry

[rvablue]

9. Only, Obama is not the descendant of a former slave....his father is from Kenya! n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Obama isn't a descendent of a former slave

Just sayin'...

[Submariner]

12. He might as well have been the way the racist right-wingtards have been conducting themselves

[frogcycle]

15. racism has nothing to do with slavery

slavery was/is a byproduct of racist dehumanizing those who are different, but racists go by current color, not by ancestral slavehood

[Fluffdaddy]

14. WTF?

:wtf:

[votetastic]

7. husband/wife effect

a likely scenario -

husband supports McCain, wife supports Obama but hasn't told her husband..

pollster calls household while husband and wife are sitting on the couch..

whichever one answers the phone will say he/she is voting for McCain