Good news!!! Obama’s "chance" to win – sharp increase

[Doug_Orlando]

I closely follow ‘futures’ markets for many events. Studies show they outperform polling as an elections predictor.

Below is from the Iowa Electronics Market (there are others.) I’ve never seen an increase in the odds to win like BO has had. And this is winning therefore voter suppression is taken into account. BO currently is at a 87% chance to win. This is extremely high. This is odds to win, not % of voters – but they predict that also and are more accurate than polls. IEM currently shows BO with about an 8-9 pt lead.

I’ve added a few notes on what impacted the trend...






Compare this to Bush v Kerry in 04. Slighty different format but still the same data. On 10/26/04 W had a about 57% chance to win - as compared to BO today with 87%.

[Bicoastal]

1. Intrade is showing similar numbers.

O is at 87-88%. McCain is at 12%-13%

[votetastic]

2. Thanks for posting this

I can't tell if Bush's chances spiked just before the election, or if that's just showing him winning.

Do you know what caused the Dem spike in August 2007?

[BlooInBloo]

3. "Studies show they outperform polling as an elections predictor"...

Except when they don't.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/intrade


And it's even less trustworthy when it's play money, instead of real.

[Doug_Orlando]

5. well actually

in the link it mentions "Intrade implies that he has a 52.3 percent chance to become the next President." The Intrade site shows approx 87% which I posted from their website below. This is line with the IEM. I agree 'play money' futures mkts aren't as good and shouldn't be considered in all this.

Not sure where they get Intrade thinks he only has a 52% chance. However if anyone can find odds based on this '52%' which would equate to closer to 1 to 1 odds vs his current odds of more like 1 to 8 which we see (i.e. you bet $8 and win $1 with a BO win) please let me know and I'll lay the lumber on that bet.

[BlooInBloo]

6. Of course it doesn't make sense when you ignore the date.

[Doug_Orlando]

7. well actually

both quotes from IEM and Intrade are live as of the last 30 mins. I was even surprised how close aligned they were. Also below is the current % from BetFair. Also at 87%. Three separate mkts and all at approx the same %.

[BlooInBloo]

8. (facepalm)

[Drunken Irishman]

9. But it looks like all the betting sites' numbers are merging together.

That's the key indicator in all of this.

Either way, while I like their percentage numbers, I tend to focus on Intrade's electoral map, which they had correct the night before the 2004 election. Whereas some pollsters were giving Florida to Kerry, Intrade bettors were giving it to Bush.

Right now, Obama is dominating in their electoral college.

[pot luck]

4. What happened in July of last year?

There's a huge spike in Obama's numbers just after July 21.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Was it all the money he raised during the summer?

I remember that being released and turning focus onto his campaign.

[renate]

11. thanks for sharing the good news, and welcome to DU!

:hi: