The 'Bradley Effect' is a myth. Please kick and recommend if you agree.

[Dawgs]

-It has never been proven to be true; even in the Bradley race in 82.

-If it did happen, there have not been any examples in over 25 years.

-Obama actally outperformed many of the polls in the primaries; running against a white person.

-There is only one example of Obama underperforming in the primary polls(New Hampshire); and that had nothing to do with his race.

-Obama has caught up to McCain in support from his party; and in many cases is doing better.

-There are more undecideds in some of the races because of Bush (angry Republicans); not because of Obama's race.

On Edit: Some studies have been done showing a 'Reverse Bradley Effect'; people claiming to vote Republican that will actually vote for Obama.

Please K&R to end these stupid discussions once and for all.

[melody]

1. I absolutely agree n/t

[RichardRay]

5. K&R with one correction

It is statistically likely that the Bradley Effect did exist in that original race. It can't be proved in an absolute sense, but the statistics suggest it.

Why is that important? Because the same methods and perspectives show that it does not exist today. Denying the original conclusion weakens the case for the current one.

Whatever: there is nothing but a lot of lip flapping to suggest that there is any tendency for the Bradley Effect to exist or have any effect in this race.

[Dawgs]

10. See post #4.

The statistics show that the race was tightening, and that Bradley actually did okay on election day. Not nearly enough of a change for it to mean something racial.

[melody]

15. The race just before did tighten and Bradley only lost by a small amount

I was alive and remember the election well. No one who worked within the Bradley campaign believes there was a "Bradley effect".
Poor Tom Bradley, he was a great symbol for change and all he's known by now is a non-issue.

[CreekDog]

17. yeah and the idea is stupid to boot

someone polls me and i don't want to vote for a black guy, the opponent is George Deukmejian, a standard So Cal Republican at the time.

if i don't like voting for black people, i tell the pollster i'm supporting Deukmejian, end of story.

[CreekDog]

16. WRONG! and a big fat wrong too. Deukmejian's own strategist said so.

he said by the day of the election the race was tied and guess what, the results were pretty much tied with a razor thin edge to Deukmejian over Bradley.

Bradley did as well as the polls as the surveys said he would.

[frickaline]

2. Not that I have evidence but the theory just seems ridiculous.

[livedemocarticordie]

3. Having Lived in

Rural Maine and Suburban Boston, I do not agree with you. Having a father who grew up and still frequents rural farm country Virginia, I do not agree. Do I think it's as big a consideration and force this time as in the past, absolutely not. A year ago I would have said Barack needs to be ahead 7-8 points. Today I would say 4.5-5. My husband who is biracial says 3.

I am not convinced that it has magically disappeared. I am convinced that is shrinking. And that makes me sleep better at night.

BTW I totally disagree about the undecided. I think most of the undecideds are McCain's to have. And many of them are motivated by fear of obama's youth, inexperience and RACE.

[rosesaylavee]

12. I agree with most of your post but the last

I don't the undecideds are motivated. I think we know what happens when people are fearful - they tend to hunker down and hope for the best. Lucky for them their hunkering will have a better outcome than our collective fears did for the DEMs after 2000. It took us collectively 8 years to gird our loins and we did it by banding together and fighting a common cause. These undecideds are by themselves.

As I said, lucky for them the outcome of their fear-based inactivity will be a better country and better situation than they could ever have imagined.

[melody]

14. The "undecideds" are no one's to have

The undecideds don't care and won't vote.

[fujiyama]

4. It doesn't make any sense- Those not voting for Obama due to race have other excuses

note to vote for him, whether they are worried about his experience or whatever else - including his race.

The analysis of the '82 gubernatorial election is especially revealing from both campaigns. Both said the race was tightening in the end - AND (this is a big one) - Bradley WON the votes that day, however the republican won absentee ballots.

I think it's stupid to focus on something that cannot be proven. Yes, racism IS a huge factor and we'll see that certain regions in this country still won't budge, but we'll see in this election that MANY more people don't really care anymore. They care about who offers a better future for their families and our country as a whole - and that candidate is Barack Obama.

[proud2BlibKansan]

6. Yep

[RagAss]

7. k and r....His name is Obama....not Bradley !

[NYC_SKP]

8. Quite the reverse is in play, the "Obama Effect"...

In which many who claim publicly to support McCain end up voting for Obama.

No doubt in my mind that this will be the effect that matters this year.

[livedemocarticordie]

20. If there is a Reverse Bradley effect. reflected in POLLS

it is miniscule. WHY? Because it is one thing to tell your grandma, neigbor or FIL you're voting for McCain when you know you're voting for Obama, it's another thing to tell the pollster that lie. Think about it. A "reverse Bradley" person is lying to loved ones to avoid familial backlash. He' s probably not lying to the pollster.

[NYC_SKP]

26. Sure, if the person is alone during the call, and...

If that person is comfortable being honest with a perfect stranger over the phone.

I still think the results will surprise us, but we'll never know because exit polls will not bear out the truth.

The voter who "secretly" supported Obama and didn't admit it before the election isn't likely to admit it after voting.

[CreekDog]

9. yes, because racists who won't vote for a black guy won't say Obama in a poll

when they can say: McCain, Barr, Nader, etc. lots of white guys to choose from there.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. At least one DLC douchenozzle will be on this thread trumpeting it shortly

Count on it.

[CreekDog]

18. well, i don't listen to Mark Mellman

even if he did sign up for DU.

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. Somewhat more fluffy than that, actually

[CreekDog]

22. Mellman is more puffy than fluffly

:rofl: :hide:

[rosesaylavee]

13. I don't think the discussions will end - and maybe its best that they don't.

But I don't think we need to fear the Bradley effect.

[Grateful for Hope]

21. Totally agree. n/t

[TankLV]

23. Actually - I believe there is a "reverse" one...

Many intelligent white persons are so intimidated by all their racist friends and relatives where they live that they are afraid to admit to liking and agreeing with Obama and the Dems for fear of the repukes jumping all over them, so they either say nothing or "agree" to "get along" and when that curtain is closed, will vote their conscience...

[AnotherMother4Peace]

28. Agreed! A republican friend of mine told me, in a whisper, that she was voting for Obama. Her famil...

are life long republicans, and that's just what they all do - vote republican. She knows I'll keep her "secret". She went along with the republican group think and voted for Bush a second time, and was sorry. I told her I wouldn't be surprised if some of her other family members were also voting for Obama, but were afraid to say anything.

edited to fix punctuation - gotta have good punctuation!

[FloridaGrl]

24. ITA

[adamuu]

25. Nate Silver makes a convincing case against it.

The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

[niceypoo]

27. They will cry this when votes are flipped

This is their run up to cheating.

[Festivito]

29. Makes an almost clever excuse in order to hide a stolen election.

And, hiding a stolen election is no myth.

[seabeyond]

30. i think it is bullshit along with puma, and ALL white women support palin. n.t

[Orsino]

31. Never measured definitively, but we know that it's not completely mythical.

And this year, especially, it may be swamped by other effects. If we're going to discuss it at all, let's not employ euphemisms. Call it racist voting.

[Hissyspit]

32. I think it's a myth...

a non-issue at the very least.

[uponit7771]

33. BRADLEY RUN WAS FIRST TIME FOR ABSENTEE BALLOTS IN CA!! R's CONCENTRATED ON THEM INSTEAD OF GOTV

[MindMatter]

34. Forget the "Bradley effect" The real story is the reverse anti-Bradley Un-effect

Or maybe that isn't the right name for it. Let me explain.

This morning I was visiting a rather affluent part of town. This is upscale, but still urban. It wouldn't be surprising for Obama to win in this area, but 55-45 or something like that.

I made a point of counting signs. I stopped counting when I got past 50 houses with Obama signs. I'm sure there were over 100. They were everywhere.

In that entire time I saw ONE -- let me say it again -- ONE freaking sign for McCain.

OK, I am optimistic about our chances, but there's no way that is the real ratio of support. What does that tell us? McCain supporters have gone underground. They are afraid to show public support for McCain because so many of their neighbors are so enthusiastic about Obama, and they sure don't want to have to defend anything about McCain or Palin. So they are in the bunkers.

Maybe they will stay home on election day, but I doubt it. I expect they will show up and vote for McCain. The question is, what are they telling pollsters? Are they telling it straight or are they afraid to even tell a pollster that they still support McCain?

[goclark]

35. There was no Bradley effect that I remember and I live in LA

It was nothing like Obama.

Bradley was a calm and "appreciated by many" Mayor.
He was able to reach across the aisle and opened up Los Angeles to be more understanding of the merits of political leaders of color.

He didn't have anything like the magic, the magnetism,the star power of Obama!

It was a different time for Civil Rights, there had been no Nelson Mandela,Oprah,internet that reached around the world.

All we could read each day of worth was the Los Angeles Times.
We had to believe what the LA Times told us to believe.
Now we get our information from a million sources.

I don't recall people donating money in huge amounts to get
Bradley elected.

As an African American, I don't recall a ground swell of "get out the vote" because it was just not the same as OBAMA to us.

[autorank]

36. k*r MYTH indeed! Thanks!

[Blondiegrrl]

37. K&R

:kick:

[Mossbeach]

38. Slightly disagree...

It's not so much the Bradley effect, as the Harvey Gantt effect. Gantt ran against Jesse Helms in 1990 and 1996, who used racially motivated crap to beat Harvey...who was an awesome candidate (but not nearly an Obama...not even close).

Helm's race baiting aide, Charlie Black, now works for Mcyellowteeth and the Caribou Barbie.


Read about McCain's connection to the idiot here: http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977390389


Now Gantt was always close in the polls but lost both elections 53-47. The good news is.....This was North Carolina....and Obama is further ahead than Gantt was...and I do not see this happen across the country.